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Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons AFL Tips - Dees kick straightest

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Thu 17 Jul 2025 10:58

Jeremy Darke 17 Jul 2025

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Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 19 AFL game
The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 7:35 PM (AEST)
Carlton and Melbourne have had several close matchups recently, usually decided by slim margins.
Melbourne has shown improved form with Jake Melksham's impressive goal-scoring spree.

Jez's Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons AFL Tips

Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons, Round 19 2025 - Expert Prediction

Another nailbiter is on the cards and the team that can actually kick straight will win the match and that will be Melbourne.

Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons, Round 19 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Carlton Blues Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Carlton Blues Team News
Carlton Blues Team List
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Melbourne Demons Team News
Melbourne Demons Team List
Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2025 Round 19 FAQ’s

The last 3 matches between these two have gone to the Blues by 4 points or less and traditionally this matchup stays wide open for either team finishing with low winning margins. This trend is set to continue, not because these two will go blow for blow, they will likely go miss for miss and plenty of behinds will feature with the Blue and Demons a couple of the worst teams in the AFL at turning chances into majors.

With this in mind, I expect the score to stay below a modest 163.5 points, just like the last 7 meetings between the Blues and Demons. I’ve tipped the Dees because they have been able to show glimpses of attack especially with Jake Melksham on a tear at the moment with two 5-goal games and a 4-goal game in his last 3 matches.

If the Blues are a chance they are going to have to win the midfield and create plenty of chances for the forwards. Adam Cerra has stepped up his activity with an average of 25 disposals over his last 5 matches, failing to hit that mark just once in that time. He will be heavily involved against a susceptible midfield of the Demons.

13 of the last 14 matches between Carlton and Melbourne have been decided by a margin of 26 points or less
Both teams rank 15th or worse in goal accuracy in 2025.
Adam Cerra has had 25+ disposals in 4 of his last 5 matches.
Jake Melksham has 14 goals in his last 3 matches.

Head to Head

The closest rivalry in footy related to recent score lines has to be between Carlton and Melbourne. The last 3 matches have been decided by 4 points or less.

The latest was the stand alone meeting in 2024 in round 9 where the Blues scraped home by one point, almost blowing a 38-point, third-quarter lead.

Carlton have won all three recent nailbiters, however, Melbourne had won the 8 matches prior, with 4 of those matches decided by 8 points or less.

13 of the last 14 matches between Carlton and Melbourne have been decided by a 1-26 point margin.

Carlton Blues Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-4	1-4	2-3

It is a scary time to be involved in the Carlton Football Club, losing four straight matches with the last three coming by an average margin of 47.66 points.

If you look at the teams Carlton have lost to this season, 8 of eleven are current top 8 sides, however, the other three are to North Melbourne, Richmond and an excusable Port Adelaide. It doesn’t look good for Michael Voss or any of his stars with everyone rumoured to be on the chopping block.

I think the most telling state for the Blues is their ability to convert their inside 50’s into points. It is simply not happening, ranked 16th in goals per inside 50, converting just 20.15% of their entries. It certainly doesn’t help when they have a goal accuracy of 44.8% either, ranked 15th in the AFL.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
5-12	4-13	4-8	2-3

Carlton Blues Team News

Orazio Fantasia and Mitch McGovern will both be replaced after suffering hamstring injuries against Brisbane last weekend.

Adam Saad is likely to return after missing last week under concussion protocol, while Jack Silvagni’s inclusion is a little less certain.

Carlton Blues Team List

B: N.Haynes, J.Weitering, A.Saad

HB: L.Cowan, H.O’Farrell, S.Docherty

C: A.Moir, P.Cripps - C, A.Cerra

HF: F.Young, C.Curnow, L.Fogarty

F: J.Motlop, T.De Koning, Z.Williams

FOLL: M.Pittonet, G.Hewett, O.Hollands

I/C: M.Carroll, F.Evans, C.Durdin, W.White, C.Lord

EMG: J.Boyd, B.Acres, H.O’Keeffe

In: - A.Saad, F.Evans, W.White

Out: - A.Cincotta (Injured), O.Fantasia (Injured), M.McGovern (Injured)

Melbourne Demons Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-4	4-1	3-2

The Dees got a much needed win, breaking a 5-game losing streak with their 119-83 victory over North Melbourne on Sunday. Jake Melksham kicked another 5 goals, bringing his three-game tally to 14 majors, boosting the Demons to their second highest total of the season.

The Dees needed someone in their forward line to stand up and the 34-year-old Melksham has done just that. The issue still is that he needs some help with noone in the Melbourne squad breaking down any of their barriers in either the forward line or back line.

The Demons give up the most goals per inside 50 (27.29%) and have the highest opposition accuracy rate (52.4%) in the AFL. Compounding those stats is that Melbourne struggle to convert their own chances, ranked 17th in goal accuracy (42.6%) down the other end.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
9-8	9-8	5-9	1-2

Melbourne Demons Team News

After being a late withdrawal due to illness, Steven May is expected to return this week.

Tom Sparrow was clipped by Tristan Xerri and will miss the match due to concussion.

Melbourne Demons Team List

B: J.Bowey, S.May, J.McVee

HB: C.Salem, T.McDonald, D.Turner

C: X.Lindsay, C.Petracca, H.Langford

HF: J.Viney, M.Jefferson, E.Langdon

F: J.Melksham, J.van Rooyen, K.Pickett

FOLL: M.Gawn - C, C.Oliver, T.Rivers

I/C: C.Windsor, K.Tholstrup, H.Sharp, B.Fritsch, K.Chandler

EMG: B.Howes, T.Campbell, H.Petty

In: - S.May, H.Sharp

Out: - J.Lever (Injured), T.Sparrow (Injured)

Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2025 Round 19 FAQ’s

How to watch Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2025 Round 19?

You can watch the Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2025 Round 19 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2025 Round 19?

To buy tickets to the Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2025 Round 19 game check the AFL website or the official Carlton Blues site.

Verdict

Carlton Blues v Melbourne Demons

The Dees will get the win by a slim margin in a game of missed opportunities that will see a low scoreline.
Adam Cerra will collect 25+ disposals for Carlton while Jake Melksham will continue his goal kicking run with another 3 against the Blues.

Melbourne Demons

1-24 Winning Margin

$3.10 - 2 Units

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Adam Cerra

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