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AFL Opening Round Tips 2026: Jesse's Predictions for Every Match

Jesse Mclure

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Last updated: Wed 04 Mar 2026 19:59

Jesse Mclure 04 Mar 2026

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Jesse's Predictions for every Opening Round Match
Sydney to use home advantage against Carlton.
Gold Coast Suns’ new players could edge out Geelong.
Brisbane tipped to win over the Bulldogs at home.

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Jesse's AFL Opening Round Tips 2026: Every Match Predicted

Opening Round is finally here, and the narratives are already stacked.

Jesse's AFL Opening Round Tips 2026: Every Match Predicted
Sydney vs Carlton
Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong Cats
GWS Giants vs Hawthorn
Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs
St Kilda vs Collingwood

Contenders face early tests, injury lists are shaping selections, and several clubs have statement opportunities straight out of the gate. Based on team news, preseason form and matchup dynamics, here are Jesse from True Footy's tips for every Opening Round clash.

Sydney vs Carlton

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Carlton look sharp and Sam Walsh appears primed for a big season, while young Jagger Smith has already generated buzz. But Sydney at home is a different test. Errol Gulden is expected to play, and the Swans have not lost to Carlton at this venue since 2019. Charlie Curnow facing his old side adds intrigue, yet Sydney’s structure and home-ground edge should prove decisive.

Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong Cats

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The Suns are carrying serious expectation after adding Christian Petracca and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan to a list that already showed promise. While Geelong remain disciplined and dangerous, the Cats’ recent trips north have not gone well. If Petracca drives the midfield and Ugle-Hagan stretches the Cats’ defence, the Suns can edge what shapes as a tight contest.

GWS Giants vs Hawthorn

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This shapes as one of the more injury-influenced matchups. GWS will be without Tom Green, Josh Kelly, Toby Bedford and Sam Taylor, severely impacting their midfield and defensive stability. Hawthorn lose Will Day, but their system remains reliable, and Jack Ginnivan is expected to play. With the Giants missing key personnel, the Hawks should control the game.

Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs

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Brisbane at the Gabba is always a significant challenge. Even if Oscar Allen or Sam Draper are unavailable, the Lions’ core remains elite after last season’s dominant premiership run. The Bulldogs will miss Cody Weightman and Riley Garcia, and there is doubt around other key names. Marcus Bontempelli and Tim English can compete at stoppage, but Brisbane’s depth and home advantage give them the edge.

St Kilda vs Collingwood

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St Kilda’s preseason has been impressive, with Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Jack Sinclair finding plenty of the ball and driving play. Collingwood enter with concerns, particularly in defence where Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe are unlikely to feature, along with Bobby Hill missing up forward. If the Saints generate enough supply, they can capitalise against a reshuffled Magpies unit and continue their strong recent record in this fixture.