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Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs AFL Opening Round Tips - Bulldogs have a positive start against the Premiers

Jeremy Darke

Editor

Last updated: Thu 05 Mar 2026 13:19

Jeremy Darke 05 Mar 2026

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Brisbane Lions are favorites, aiming for their third straight Premiership.
Experts expect the Bulldogs to cover the 14.5-point spread.
Key players: Bontempelli for disposals, Morris for goals.
The game will be played at Gabba on Saturday 7th March, with the bounce at 7:35 PM (AEDT)

Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs AFL Opening Round Tips

Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs, Opening Round 2026 - Expert Prediction

The reigning Premiers will be put to the test from Opening Round against the Western Bulldogs, who many tip to be a smoky contender in 2026. Back the Dogs to cover as 14.5 point underdogs.

Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs, Opening Round 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Team News
Brisbane Lions Team News
Brisbane Lions Team List
Western Bulldogs Form Analysis & Team News
Western Bulldogs Team News
Western Bulldogs Team List
Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs AFL 2026 Opening Round FAQ’s

Brisbane don’t have any holes and are odds on favourites to win their third consecutive Premiership in 2026. They added even more depth to their squad in the offseason and will be there again in September.

That being said, this is Opening Round and they have nothing to prove yet. The Bulldogs on the other hand have everything to play for after missing the finals in 2025 after being the best scoring team in the AFL.

Luke Beverage will require a positive start to the 2026 season from the Bulldogs and they will need to be up for it from the get go. They have the squad to pinch this one from Brisbane if they have addressed their defensive issues that let them down last year, but I do expect they cover with such a large handicap, which they stayed within last time they visited the Gabba.

Marcus Bontempelli will be the driving force for Bulldogs and as it was when he was fully fit in 2025 he will likely hit 30+ disposal, so play the ladders there.

Brisbane will likely need to keep up with the Bulldogs scoring, which they are more than capable of doing. 20-year-old Logan Morris had an early breakout year in 2025 and will start 2026 in positive form kicking at least 2 goals for the Lions.

Only 1 of 4 Western Bulldogs away losses was by over 14.5 points (16) in 2025.
The Bulldogs had an average losing margin of 13.88 in 2025.
Marcus Bontempelli averaged 31.8 disposals in his final 5 games of 2025.
Logan Morris averaged 2 goals per game in 2025

Head to Head Stats

Brisbane have had a clear edge over the Bulldogs winning both matches in 2025 by 18 points and 12 points.

Brisbane have won 4 of the last 5 encounters dating back to the 22’ season.

Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Team News

It is a scary thought for the league that Brisbane got better in the offseason, adding Oscar Allen and Sam Draper to a Premiership winning side. The Lions peaked at the right time of the year and due to injury over the last couple of seasons they have developed some real superstars in the River City.

This is going to be a massive year for Will Ashcroft and Hugh McCluggage is at his absolute peak. Brisbane don’t have a weakness if they have a full squad and avoid injury.

The Lions may have some patches where they do not play their best form of footy but you bet your bottom dollar that come finals time Chris Fagan will have his troop in prime condition, ready to claim a third consecutive premiership.

Brisbane Lions Team News

Cam Rayner has overcome a groin injury to start for the Premiers in Opening Round.

The Lions will be missing Eric Hipwood, Jack Payne and new recruit Sam Draper for the opener, playing on the cautious side knowing it is a long season ahead

Brisbane Lions Team List

B: K.Coleman 18 D.Gardiner 27 R.Lester 35

HB: D.Wilmot 44 H.Andrews 31 D.Zorko 15

C: J.Fletcher 3 H.McCluggage 6 J.Berry 7

HF: C.Cameron 23 O.Allen 4 Z.Bailey 33

F: W.Ashcroft 8 L.Morris 13 T.Gallop 22

Foll: D.Fort 32 J.Dunkley - C 5 L.Neale 9

I/C: K.Lohmann 1 L.Ashcroft 10 C.Rayner 16 Z.Zakostelsky 21 B.Reville 38

Emerg: L.McCarthy 11 D.Annable 14 D.Joyce 41

Notable absentees: Eric Hipwood, Lincoln McCarthy, Conor McKenna, Noah Answerth, Tom Doedee, Jack Payne, Sam Draper

Western Bulldogs Form Analysis & Team News

The Western Bulldogs averaged 108 points per game in 2025 and also had the second-highest percentage of any club, but still missed the finals, signalling a major issue that needs to be addressed.

Luke Beverage has some defensive ghosts which need to be busted if the Bulldogs are going to reach the potential that their squad has. The Dogs have arguably the best, young full forward in the game with Sam Darcy towering over any defender in the AFL and Marcus Bontempelli steering the midfield with Tim English at ruck.

The pieces are there but the Dogs will once again be fighting for a place in September if they have not addressed their issues at the back.

Western Bulldogs Team News

The Dogs medical team are playing cautious with Adam Treloar, who will miss the Opening Round clash.

The good news is that both Sam Darcy and Bailey Dale passed their tests and have been included for Saturday’s clash.

Western Bulldogs Team List

B: L.Jaques 11 B.Khamis 24 R.Lobb 7

HB: C.Budarick 19 J.O'Donnell 18 L.Bramble 29

C: S.Davidson 42 M.Bontempelli - C 4 B.Williams 34

HF: C.Hynes 6 S.Darcy 10 J.Freijah 27

F: J.Croft 16 A.Naughton 33 T.Liberatore 21

Foll: T.English 44 M.Kennedy 8 E.Richards 20

I/C: M.Sellwood 37 O.Baker 13 R.West 14 A.Jones 32 B.Dale 31

Emerg: H.Gallagher 12 W.Lewis L.Kennedy 35

Notable absentees: Adam Treloar, Laitham Vandermeer, Cody Weightman, Nick Coffield, Ryley Sanders

Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs AFL 2026 Opening Round FAQ’s

How to watch Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs AFL 2026 Opening Round?

You can watch the Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs AFL 2026 Opening Round game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs AFL 2026 Opening Round?

To buy tickets to the Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs AFL 2026 Opening Round game check the AFL website or the official Brisbane Lions site.

Verdict

Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs

The Western Bulldogs will cover with Marcus Bontempelli tallying at least 25+ disposals, while Logan Morris will kick a couple for the Lions.

Western Bulldogs +14.5

Handicap/Line

$1.92 - 2 Units

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Bontempelli Over 25.5

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$1.87 - 3 Units

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