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GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL Opening Round Tips - Hawks To Exploit Injury Hit Giants

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Thu 05 Mar 2026 09:47

Adam Cusworth 05 Mar 2026

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The game will be played at ENGIE Stadium on Saturday March 7, with the bounce at 4:35 PM (AEDT)
The past nine matches between these sides have been decided by 39.5 points or less
Lachie Whitfield has averaged 34 disposals in his past four matches against Hawthorn
Connor Macdonald has kicked six goals in his past three matches against the Giants

Expired

Connor McDonald lines up for the Hawks (Getty Images)

GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks, Opening Round 2026 - Expert Prediction

Hawthorn look well placed to edge out the Giants in what shapes as another tight contest between these two sides.

The Hawks took the honours the last time these clubs met, defeating GWS by 19 points in last season’s Elimination Final. That result continued a trend of close matches between the teams, with the past six encounters decided by an average margin of under nine points.

This time around, the Giants come in with significant injury concerns that could prove decisive. The absence of Tom Green in particular removes a key clearance presence, while Sam Taylor and Finn Callaghan are also unavailable. Against a Hawthorn side that thrives on repeat entries and territorial pressure, those outs could make life difficult for the Giants.

Hawthorn’s structure looks more settled across the ground. Their backline has the personnel to contain Jesse Hogan, while the Hawks’ forward line appears balanced with Jack Gunston still capable of impacting the scoreboard and Nick Watson bringing energy at ground level.

The numbers also point to another competitive contest rather than a blowout. Nine of the past meetings between these teams have been decided by fewer than 40 points and recent clashes have often gone down to the final stages.

Player props also present some intriguing angles. Lachie Whitfield historically finds plenty of the ball against Hawthorn and looms as a strong disposal option, while Connor Macdonald has proven effective against the Giants in recent seasons.

Take Hawthorn to get the job done in a tight one.

The past nine matches between these sides have been decided by 39.5 points or less.
The past six meetings have been decided by an average margin of less than nine points.
Lachie Whitfield has averaged 34 disposals in his past four matches against Hawthorn.
Connor Macdonald has kicked six goals in his past three matches against the Giants.

Head to Head

Hawthorn won both meetings between the sides in 2025. The most recent came in the Elimination Final, where the Hawks prevailed by 19 points in a historic victory that marked their first win at ENGIE Stadium in seven attempts. Earlier in the season, Hawthorn also defeated the Giants by 12 points in Launceston after overcoming an early deficit.

GWS Giants Form Analysis & Team News

GWS finished the 2025 season in seventh position with 13 wins and 10 losses before their finals campaign ended in the Elimination Final against Hawthorn. The Giants showed encouraging signs during pre-season match simulation, defeating Collingwood 16.8 (104) to 11.9 (75) with Clayton Oliver dominant around stoppages and emerging midfielders Harry Rowston and Jack Ough also impressing.

However, their Community Series clash with Sydney highlighted the challenges posed by injuries, with the Giants going down 14.13 (97) to 8.11 (59). Their ball movement struggled to generate the same scoring opportunities and their forward efficiency dropped significantly compared to the earlier hitout.

Injury concerns remain the biggest storyline heading into Opening Round. Tom Green is sidelined with an ACL injury, while Sam Taylor and Toby Bedford will miss the early rounds due to hamstring issues. Josh Kelly and Darcy Jones are also unavailable, while Finn Callaghan is racing the clock with a hip flexor complaint.

Clayton Oliver, Stephen Coniglio and Toby Greene will be relied upon heavily through the midfield as the Giants attempt to cover the absence of several key contributors.

GWS Giants Team List

B: J.Laverde 25 J.Buckley 44 C.Idun 39

HB: J.Fonti 37 L.Whitfield 6 L.Ash 7

C: R.Angwin 9 C.Oliver 10 H.Thomas 1

HF: P.Gothard 11 J.Riccardi 26 J.Delana 38

F: T.Greene - C 4 J.Hogan 23 J.Stringer 20

Foll: K.Briggs 32 S.Coniglio 3 F.Callaghan 17

I/C: H.Himmelberg 27 H.Rowston 24 X.O'Halloran 33 C.Brown 46 M.Gruzewski 35

Emerg: J.Leake 30 N.Madden 41 O.Hannaford 13

Notable absentees: Josh Kelly, Sam Taylor, Tom Green, Brent Daniels, Toby Bedford, Aaron Cadman, Darcy Jones

Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Team News

Hawthorn finished eighth in 2025 with 15 wins and eight losses before making a deep finals run that ended in the Preliminary Final. The Hawks carried that momentum into the pre-season with a strong match simulation win over Geelong, 16.15 (111) to 14.10 (94), with Josh Ward, Jai Newcombe and Connor Macdonald all performing strongly through the midfield.

Their Community Series clash against the Western Bulldogs resulted in a 18.9 (117) to 11.7 (73 defeat, but there were still positive signs. Jack Gunston kicked three goals and continued to show his value inside forward 50, while Newcombe worked hard around stoppages.

Hawthorn’s main injury concern from the pre-season was Cam Mackenzie, who suffered a head knock and will miss the Opening Round clash. The Hawks are also adjusting structurally after the departures of James Worpel and Will Day’s ongoing shoulder recovery.

Despite those changes, their defensive unit remains settled and their forward structure appears balanced with Gunston, Nick Watson and Dylan Moore capable of applying scoreboard pressure.

Hawthorn Hawks Team List

B: B.Hardwick 15 T.Barrass 37 J.Scrimshaw 14

HB: J.Battle 24 J.Sicily - C 6 J.Weddle 23

C: D.Moore 8 C.Nash 11 J.Impey 4

HF: F.Maginness 20 J.Ginnivan 33 N.Watson 5

F: M.Lewis 2 M.Chol 18 J.Gunston 19

Foll: L.Meek 17 J.Newcombe 3 J.Ward 25

I/C: C.Macdonald 9 H.Morrison 1 M.D'Ambrosio 16 S.Butler 30 K.Amon 10

Emerg: F.Perez N.Mraz 21 N.Reeves 7

Notable absentees: Will Day, Cam Mackenzie, Ned Reeves, Calsher Dear

GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Opening Round FAQ’s

How to watch GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Opening Round?

You can watch the GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL Opening Round game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are livestreaming from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Opening Round?

To buy tickets to the GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL Opening Round game check the AFL website or the official GWS Giants site.

Verdict

GWS Giants v Hawthorn Hawks

Hawks to scrape through with Connor McDonald value in player props. Lachie Whitfield to rack them up for the home side

Hawthorn 1-39

Winning Margin 1-39

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