Jessica Pegula vs Jasmine Paolini Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Pegula set for sixth win over eliminated Paolini

Andrew Hendrie

Editor

Last updated: Wed 05 Nov 2025 23:10

Andrew Hendrie 05 Nov 2025

Share this article

Jessica Pegula vs Jasmine Paolini predictions for Thursday's WTA Finals group match
Pegula has won 15 of her last 21 matches
Pegula has won five of her previous six meetings with Paolini - with all five coming in straight sets
Paolini has lost her last four matches vs top 10 players in straight sets
The match is scheduled to start at 1.00am AEDT on Friday November 7

Expired

Jessica Pegula (Photo by Getty Images)

Jessica Pegula vs Jasmine Paolini Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Jessica Pegula will be targeting a one-sided victory when she comes up against Jasmine Paolini at the WTA Finals in Riyadh on Thursday.

Jessica Pegula vs Jasmine Paolini Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Head To Head
Jessica Pegula Form
Jasmine Paolini Form
Live Stream

There's various permutations in the Steffi Graf Group heading into Thursday's pair of round robin matches - basically Pegula, Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff are battling it out for the two semi-final spots. At the end of the day, Pegula simply needs to win in as convincing fashion as possible and hope the result of the Sabalenka vs Gauff match later in the day benefits her. The good news for Pegula is that she holds a dominant lead in the H2H over Paolini, who has endured a disappointing tournament this week.

Indeed, Paolini has already been eliminated from both the singles and doubles competitions. The Italian hasn't been able to win more than three games in a set, while Pegula defeated Gauff before a tight three-set defeat to Sabalenka. The American has been in strong form to end the season, reaching at least the semi-finals of her last three tournaments, while Paolini has struggled against top 10 opposition lately, so I'm backing Pegula to get the job done here in straights.

Head To Head

Pegula leads 5-1. All five of Pegula's wins have come in straight sets, but Paolini did win their most-recent clash at the Billie Jean Cup Finals in September.

Jessica Pegula Form

Pegula enters this clash with a 52-22 season record in what has been an unpredictable year by her usual standards.

Typically one of the WTA’s most consistent performers, Pegula has endured stretches of inconsistency in 2025, failing to win back-to-back matches in nine of her 11 tournaments between Stuttgart and Cincinnati. Yet, her highs have been impressive: six finals reached and three titles secured in Bad Homburg, Charleston and Austin, along with runner-up showings in Miami, Wuhan and Adelaide.

The American rediscovered her rhythm late in the year on hardcourts, advancing to the semi-finals at both the US Open and Beijing, before making the final in Wuhan, where she fell to compatriot Coco Gauff.

Pegula didn’t have to wait long for revenge - she opened her WTA Finals campaign with a gritty 6-3, 6-7 (4), 6-2 victory over Gauff, capitalising on her opponent’s 45 unforced errors and 17 double faults to claim a statement win.

However, the 31-year-old's campaign now hangs in the balance after going down in three sets to World No. 1 Sabalenka, 6-4, 2-6, 6-3.

Jasmine Paolini Form

Paolini has compiled a 46-20 record this season, backing up her breakout 2024 campaign with another strong year that keeps her firmly inside the world’s top 10 - however, she would be disappointed with already being eliminated in both singles and doubles at this year's WTA Finals.

The highlight of her year came on home soil in Rome, where Paolini thrilled the Italian crowd by capturing the WTA 1000 title, defeating Coco Gauff in the final.

Her hardcourt form had been impressive coming into the season-ending championships, winning 18 of her last 23 matches across the USA and China, finishing runner-up in Cincinnati and helping Italy lift the Billie Jean King Cup, beating three top-10 opponents along the way.

However, Paolini’s form has dipped - she's lost her last four matches against top 10 players in straight sets, including heavy 6-3 6-1 and 6-3 6-2 defeats to Sabalenka and Gauff in Riydah this week.

Live Stream

Watch and bet on Jessica Pegula vs Jasmine Paolini live WTA Finals tennis from Riyadh.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > WTA Finals with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Jessica Pegula v Jasmine Paolini

Pegula has it all to play for, while Paolini is already eliminated.

All five of Pegula's previous wins over Paolini have been in straights, while the Italian has lost her last four matches vs top 10 opponents in straights. Backing a routine victory for the American as she keeps her semi-final hopes alive.