Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Sabalenka to edge close contest

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Wed 05 Nov 2025 23:36

Andrew Hendrie 05 Nov 2025

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff predictions for Thursday's WTA Finals group match
Ten of the 11 previous meetings between the pair have seen Over 21.5 games
Sabalenka has a 13-4 record vs top 10 players in 2025
Gauff hadn't been past the quarter-finals of a hardcourt event this year until the recent Asian swing
The match is scheduled to start around 3.00am AEDT on Friday November 7

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Aryna Sabalenka (Photo by Getty Images)

Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff are each aiming to reach the semi-finals of the WTA Finals when they clash in the last group stage match on Thursday in Riyadh.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Head To Head
Aryna Sabalenka Form
Coco Gauff Form
Live Stream

Qualification for the semi-finals all comes down to this final group match - and both players will have a somewhat clearer indication of what they need to do after Jessica Pegula and Jasmine Paolini square off in the earlier match. There's a lot of permutations at play, but Sabalenka can secure her place in the final four with a victory of any kind, while Gauff will need to win in the most convincing fashion possible to give herself the best chance.

Regardless, this is looming as a tight contest. Ten of the last 11 meetings between the pair have gone over the total games line of 21.5, so that's the best bet here. Sabalenka is as motivated as ever chasing a maiden WTA Finals crown, while Gauff is the defending champion and looking to finish the year on a high. Not much separates the pair, but I'm still concerned over Gauff's troublesome serving - if she gets the yips again, then Sabalenka has the edge.

Head To Head

Gauff leads 6-5. Gauff beat Sabalenka in the semi-finals in Riydah last year and also conquered the World No. 1 in the French Open final in their most-recent meeting.

Aryna Sabalenka Form

Sabalenka comes into this contest with a 61-11 record in 2025 and already locking up the year-end World No. 1 ranking before the WTA Finals even began.

It’s been another outstanding season for the Belarusian, though not without heartbreak - she finished runner-up at both the Australian Open and Roland Garros and fell in the Wimbledon semi-finals.

Her perseverance paid off in New York, where she captured her fourth Grand Slam title at the US Open, defeating Amanda Anisimova in the final.

Following that triumph, Sabalenka featured in just one event in Asia, reaching the Wuhan semi-finals before narrowly losing to Jessica Pegula in a deciding-set tiebreak.

Showing no signs of rust, the 27-year-old opened her WTA Finals campaign in ruthless form, crushing Jasmine Paolini 6-3 6-1 behind 24 winners and five service breaks.

Sabalenka then became the only player in the Serena Williams Group to go 2-0, edging out Pegula 6-4, 2-6, 6-3 for her 13th top 10 victory of the year.

Coco Gauff Form

Gauff heads into this showdown with a 48-15 record for the season, highlighted by her second Grand Slam title at Roland Garros and another year firmly inside the world’s top three.

While her season hasn’t always been smooth, Gauff rediscovered her rhythm on hard courts late in the year, winning 16 of her last 20 matches from Montreal through to Wuhan.

The American reached the semi-finals in Beijing before claiming her 11th career title in Wuhan, where she defeated compatriot Jessica Pegula in the final.

However, her WTA Finals campaign began on a shaky note, falling to Pegula 6-3, 6-7 (4), 6-2. It was a potentially costly performance littered with 45 unforced errors, 17 double faults and nine breaks of serve,

Gauff to her credit improved significantly in her next match, cruising past Paolini by a 6-3 6-2 score, committing only three double faults and winning 35 of her 50 service points.