Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Sabalenka primed for another straight sets win over Pegula

Sabalenka has already clinched the year-end No. 1 ranking, but she's never won the WTA Finals title despite making it out of the group stage in the last three editions. After surging to the US Open title and taking an extended break, playing just one tournament in Asia, Sabalenka looks in peak condition to finally claim an elusive season-ending championship. Meanwhile, Pegula has experienced a roller-coaster season but is playing some of her best tennis at the moment and will be confident having won her opening match as the underdog - along with upsetting Sabalenka in their most-recent encounter.

However, I can't bet against the World No. 1 here. Sabalenka holds a dominant 8-3 lead in the H2H, with seven of those victories coming in straight sets. This is a tournament Sabalenka is determined to win, so the motivation, drive and focus will be at an all-time high. When Sabalenka is playing well there's not much Pegula can do to stop her - tipping the top seed in straights.

As mentioned, Sabalenka has won eight of the 11 previous meetings between the pair. However, Pegula has performed much better in recent meetings, taking a set in their US Open semi-final before recording a 2-6 6-4 7-6 victory in the Wuhan semi-finals last month.

Sabalenka comes into this contest with a 60-11 record on the season, securing the year-end World No. 1 ranking for another season before the WTA Finals began.

It's been another superb season for Sabalenka, although she has suffered her fair share of heartbreak, most notably finishing runner-up at the Australian Open and Roland Garros, along with a semi-final defeat at Wimbledon.

However, Sabalenka salvaged her Grand Slam season at the US Open, coming away with her fourth major title after beating Amanda Anisimova in the final.

Sabalenka decided to play just one tournament in Asia after that triumph, reaching the Wuhan semi-finals before being edged by Pegula in a deciding set tiebreak.

The 27-year-old showed no signs of rust in her WTA Finals opener, blitzing Jasmine Paolini 6-3 6-1, striking 24 winners and breaking serve five times.

Pegula heads into this encounter with a 51-19 record on what has been an up-and-down season.

Usually a beacon of consistency, Pegula has been quite erratic in 2025 - she failed to win back-to-back matches in nine of her 11 tournaments between Stuttgart to Cincinnati, but has also advanced to six finals, winning titles in Bad Homburg, Charleston and Austin.

The American regained form by reaching the semi-finals of the US Open and Beijing, while she finished runner-up in Wuhan, falling to countrywoman Coco Gauff.

Pegula didn't have to wait long for revenge, upsetting Gauff 6-3, 6-7 (4), 6-2 to begin her WTA Finals campaign, taking advantage of her opponent's 45 unforced errors and 17 double faults.