Holger Rune vs Hamad Medjedovic Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Medjedovic tipped for upset with Over 22.5 games

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 25 Sep 2025 00:41

Andrew Hendrie 25 Sep 2025

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Holger Rune vs Hamad Medjedovic predictions for Thursday's ATP Tokyo R1 match
Rune has lost four of his last six matches
Medjedovic beat Rune in their only previous clash in Davis Cup earlier this year
The match is scheduled to start around 6.00pm AEST on Thursday September 25

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Holger Rune (Photo by Getty Images)

Holger Rune vs Hamad Medjedovic Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Holger Rune has a tough opening assignment at the Japan Open when he comes up against the powerful Hamad Medjedovic in Tokyo on Thursday.

Holger Rune vs Hamad Medjedovic Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Head To Head
Holger Rune Form
Hamad Medjedovic Form
Live Stream

It's been a challenging season for Rune, but a handful of bright tournaments have seen him hang around the top 10 for most of the year. However, there's no doubt that Rune's progress has stagnated significantly and there's no real sign that he's about to take that next step in his career. The Dane has lost four of his last six matches and comes into Tokyo down on confidence.

Meanwhile, Medjedovic would have also hoped for a better season - but his setbacks are primarily due to fitness issues and injuries. A healthy Medjedovic easily has top 30 talent, but the Serbian's body is constantly breaking down. I feel like Medjedovic has a big chance at the upset here if fully fit - he won their only previous clash earlier this year and Rune is well below his best. I'm backing Over 22.5 games, with Medjedovic coming away with the spoils.

Head To Head

Medjedovic leads 1-0, prevailing 2-6 6-3 6-1 when they squared off in Davis Cup round robin action earlier in 2025.

Holger Rune Form

Rune heads into this contest with a 29-18 record on the season and at No. 11 in the world, which probably flatters his overall form.

Eighteen of Rune's 29 wins have come at four tournaments - he won the ATP 500 event in Barcelona, finished runner-up at the Indian Wells Masters and made the R16 at both the Australian Open and Roland Garros.

Outside of those events, Rune has barely been sighted. He's coming off a disappointing second round exit at the US Open to Jan-Lennard Struff, while he lost a crucial rubber from a winning position in Davis Cup to Spain's Pedro Martinez.

Hoping to restore some confidence in the more relaxed environment of Laver Cup, Rune suffered another defeat, losing his only match of the competition to Francisco Cerundolo.

Rune is defending semi-final points in Tokyo after going down to eventual champion Arthur Fils in the final four last year.

Hamad Medjedovic Form

Medjedovic has registered a 17-12 record on the season and comes into this tournament just six spots off his career-high ranking of No. 57, which was achieved in August.

When Medjedovic has been fit, he's proven he belongs near the top of the game - he reached the final of Marseille earlier in the year, defeating Daniil Medvedev and Karen Khachanov along the way, while he also reached the third round of Roland Garros and Cincinnati.

The 22-year-old made the quarter-finals of Winston Salem just before the US Open, where he went down in a gruelling five-setter to Daniel Altmaier in the opening round.

Medjedovic - who will be making his Tokyo debut in this match - helped lead Serbia to a Davis Cup victory over Turkey in the World Group in his most-recent outing, defeating Yanki Erel.