Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev ATP Hangzhou Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Medvedev backed for Hangzhou silverware

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Tue. 29 Sep. 2026 01:34

Andrew Hendrie 29 Sep. 2026

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Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev predictions for Tuesday's ATP Hangzhou final
Medvedev leads H2H 7-2, all wins in straight sets
Rublev now out of the top 20, has gone 0-3 vs top 10 this season
The match is scheduled to start at 9.30pm AEST on Tuesday September 29

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Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev ATP Hangzhou Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

All seven of Daniil Medvedev's wins over Andrey Rublev have come in straight sets, so the top seed is tipped to extend that record when the pair meet in the Hangzhou Open final on Tuesday night.

Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev ATP Hangzhou Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Medvedev vs Rublev Stats & Trends
Medvedev vs Rublev Head To Head
Daniil Medvedev Form Analysis
Andrey Rublev Form Analysis
Medvedev vs Rublev Live Stream

Both players have struggled over the last few years after being top 10 mainstays. Medvedev, to his credit, has fought his way back into that elite bracket, but is still far below the sort of level that propelled him to the World No. 1 ranking, while Rublev has crashed out of the top 20 in 2026. Both players have also benefitted from soft fields in Hangzhou, not having to face a top 80 player all tournament (and in Medvedev's case, top 100).

However, at the same time, both have registered significant milestones this tournament. Medvedev has notched up 350 tour-level wins on hardcourt, the fourth most out of any active player, while Rublev became the ninth active player to reach 400 tour-level wins with his semi-final victory in Hangzhou.

Now the pair meet for the 10th time, with Medvedev holding a dominant 7-2 record and winning their only previous final (Dubai 2023) 6-2 6-2.

It's obvious Medvedev holds the matchup advantage here - when he's playing well, he can absorb Rublev's pace off the forehand, redirect the ball and basically just slowly grind his compatriot into submission from the back of the court.

Considering Rublev is also still far below his best, I don't see him hitting the required level to overcome what has been a sustained and consistent tough matchup for him. Medvedev to win is the main play, with a bit more value on another straight sets triumph.

Medvedev vs Rublev Stats & Trends

Medvedev has a 9-3 record in finals vs players outside the top 20
Six of those nine wins have come in straight sets
Rublev has a 0-3 record vs top 10 players this season
All seven of Medvedev's wins over Rublev have come in straight sets

Medvedev vs Rublev Head To Head

As mentioned, Medvedev has won seven of the nine previous meetings - but this will be their first clash since 2023.

Year	Winner	Event	Round	Surface	Score
2023	Daniil Medvedev	Nitto ATP Finals	Round Robin	Indoor Hard	6-4, 6-2
2023	Daniil Medvedev	US Open	Quarterfinal	Outdoor Hard	6-4, 6-3, 6-4
2023	Daniil Medvedev	Dubai	Final	Outdoor Hard	6-2, 6-2
2022	Andrey Rublev	Nitto ATP Finals	Round Robin	Indoor Hard	6-7(7), 6-3, 7-6(7)
2021	Andrey Rublev	ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati	Semifinal	Outdoor Hard	2-6, 6-3, 6-3
2021	Daniil Medvedev	Australian Open	Quarterfinal	Outdoor Hard	7-5, 6-3, 6-2
2020	Daniil Medvedev	US Open	Quarterfinal	Outdoor Hard	7-6(6), 6-3, 7-6(5)
2019	Daniil Medvedev	St. Petersburg	Quarterfinal	Indoor Hard	6-4, 7-5
2019	Daniil Medvedev	ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati	Quarterfinal	Outdoor Hard	6-2, 6-3

Daniil Medvedev Form Analysis

2026 ATP Record: 37-16
ATP Hangzhou Record: 4-1
Current Ranking: No. 6
Career-High Ranking: No. 1 (2022)

There's no doubt Medvedev produced his best tennis at the beginning of the season.

The former World No. 1 won 20 of his 37 matches for the year across the opening three months, capturing titles in Brisbane and Dubai, finishing runner-up at Indian Wells and reaching the fourth round of the Australian Open.

However, his performances at the Grand Slams have again been disappointing. Medvedev failed to reach a quarter-final at any of the majors this season, meaning he hasn't progressed beyond the Round of 16 at a Slam since 2024.

Nevertheless, Medvedev remains firmly entrenched inside the top 10 and will be determined to finish the year strongly as he looks to secure his place at the season-ending finals.

The Russian hasn't been spectacular in Hangzhou, but he's done what's required to reach a 44th ATP final. After receiving a first-round bye, Medvedev defeated Valentin Royer 7-6(6), 6-3 before overcoming Coleman Wong 6-3, 6-7(2), 6-3 in the quarter-finals and countryman Roman Safiullin 7-5 6-4 in the semis.

Andrey Rublev Form Analysis

2026 ATP Record: 31-17
ATP Hangzhou Record: 3-1
Current Ranking: No. 25
Career-High Ranking: No. 5 (2021)

It's been a gradual fall from grace for Rublev over the last few years after reaching a career-high ranking of World No. 5 in 2021.

There have still been some encouraging results this season, with Rublev winning the title in Bastad, finishing runner-up in Barcelona and reaching the semi-finals in Doha, Dubai and Hong Kong.

However, like Medvedev, his performances at the Grand Slams have again been disappointing. Rublev failed to progress beyond the Round of 16 at any major this season, while he suffered a first-round exit at Wimbledon and was eliminated in the second round of the US Open by Daniel Merida.

Determined to finish the year strongly, Rublev has got his Asian swing off to the best possible start, advancing to his 33rd ATP final with victories over Rinky Hijikata (6-3 6-3), Hugo Gaston (6-7(6) 7-6(4) 6-1) and Kyrian Jacquet (7-6(0) 6-1).