Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Hurkacz to secure Chengdu title
The ATP Chengdu final features Alejandro Davidovich Fokina against Hubert Hurkacz in a matchup expected to go the distance. Despite Davidovich Fokina’s 4-2 H2H edge, Hurkacz’s consistent recent form and superior 9-6 ATP final record give him the slight advantage. Davidovich Fokina’s struggles in finals and lack of top-50 wins this year are concerning. Both men are coming off strong tournament runs and promise a tightly contested, high-quality final, but Hurkacz is favored to secure the title in a three-setter.
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Hubert Hurkacz predictions for Tuesday's Chengdu final
- Close contest expected, with five of six previous meetings seeing both players win a set
- Hurkcaz has the slight edge, with ADF equipped with poor 1-5 record in finals
- The match is scheduled to start at 9.00pm AEST on Tuesday September 29
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Hubert Hurkacz Live StreamWatch live online at bet365 > Tennis > ATP Chengdu. T&Cs apply.
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Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Hubert Hurkacz ATP Chengdu Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Hubert Hurkacz is back playing some resurgent tennis and Alejandro Davidovich has a poor 1-5 record in ATP finals, so the big-serving Pole is tipped to edge what should be an entertaining and high-quality Chengdu Open title match on Tuesday night.
It's been an outstanding tournament for both players. Hurkacz has gone 15-4 in his last 19 matches in all competitions since Wimbledon and is playing his best tennis since the United Cup, while Davidovich Fokina hasn't missed a beat in his first tournament since Umag in July, advancing to his seventh career final.
Davidovich Fokina leads the H2H 4-2, but the bulk of the matches have been extremely tight, with both players winning a set in five of the six meetings.
I think this final is destined to go the distance and I give the slight edge to Hurkacz. The Pole has more tennis under his belt and I loved his response to going a set down against Denis Shapovalov in yesterday's semi-finals. He's serving big and not panicking from the baseline - he's tough to beat in that sort of mood.
Davidovich Fokina loves a scrap, but his 1-5 record in finals is a concern. In comparison, Hurkacz holds a 9-6 record in tour-level finals. ADF also has just four wins over top 50 players this season - he's not at his absolute best.
So I think Hurkacz is the justified slight favourite here and I'm backing the Pole to secure the Chengdu silverware in a match that features Over 23.5 games and goes the distance.
Davidovich Fokina vs Hurkacz Stats & Trends
- Davidovich Fokina has a 1-5 record in ATP finals
- Davidovich Fokina has a 4-11 record vs top 50 players this season
- Hurkacz has won 15 of his last 19 matches at all levels
- Hurkacz has a 9-6 record in ATP finals
- Hurkacz has seen Over 23.5 games in four of his last five best-of-three matches
- Five of the six previous meetings have seen both players win a set
Davidovich Fokina vs Hurkacz Head To Head
Davidovich Fokina has won four of the six previous encounters, but almost all of them have been close. This will be their first meeting in over two years.
| Year | Winner | Event | Round | Surface | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | United Cup | Round Robin | Outdoor Hard | 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| 2022 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Wimbledon | Round of 128 | Outdoor Grass | 7-6(4), 6-4, 5-7, 2-6, 7-6(8) |
| 2022 | Hubert Hurkacz | ATP Masters 1000 Madrid | Round of 32 | Outdoor Clay | 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(5) |
| 2021 | Hubert Hurkacz | ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati | Round of 64 | Outdoor Hard | 6-1, 6-7(3), 6-1 |
| 2021 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Montpellier | Round of 16 | Indoor Hard | 7-5, 6-2 |
| 2020 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | US Open | Round of 64 | Outdoor Hard | 6-4, 1-6, 6-2, 6-2 |
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Form Analysis
- 2026 ATP Record: 28-15
- ATP Chengdu RecordL 3-0
- Current Ranking: No. 28
- Career-High Ranking: No. 14 (2025)
It's been a bit of a wild year for Davidovich Fokina - he's dealt with some injury issues and coaching controversy, dropping out of the top 20 as a result.
But, the Spaniard has also broken through to finally capture that elusive maiden ATP title after losing five consecutive finals, beating Ethan Quinn to win the Mallorca title on grass.
Davidovich Fokina backed it up with a fourth round showing at Wimbledon, but was forced to spend two months on the sideline after Umag due to a back injury, missing the US Open as a result.
The 27-year-old returned to action in Chengdu this tournament and has picked up where he left off, advancing to the final with wins over Juan Manuel Cerundolo (6-4 6-4), Alexandre Muller (6-1 7-5) and Nikoloz Basilashvili (4-6 6-4 6-3).
Hurbert Hurkacz Form Analysis
- 2026 ATP Record: 21-17
- ATP Chengdu Record: 4-0
- Current Ranking: No. 46
- Career-High Ranking: No. 6 (2024)
It hasn't been a great overall season for Hurkacz, but the Pole has found a good level again over the last month or so.
Hurkacz looked set for a big year upon his return from a knee injury, defeating two top-10 opponents during an impressive United Cup campaign in his first tournament of the year. However, that momentum quickly disappeared, with Hurkacz enduring a six-match losing streak following the Australian Open.
He didn't manage to win back-to-back matches again until Wimbledon, where he produced his best run of the season to reach the fourth round, beating Tommy Paul and Casper Ruud along the way.
After picking up a Challenger title in Cancun, Hurkacz was then unfortunate to run into eventual US Open finalist Ben Shelton in the second round in New York, but he's responded strongly this week in Chengdu.
After reaching his first quarter-final of the season, Hurkacz has continued his run into his 16th ATP final with victories over Alexander Shevchenko (6-3, 7-6(10)), Martin Damm (4-6, 6-3, 6-4), Lloyd Harris (7-6(10), 6-4) and Denis Shapovalov (6-7(8) 6-3 6-3).
Davidovich Fokina vs Hurkacz Live Stream
Watch and bet on Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Hurbert Hurkacz live tennis from Chengdu.
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Verdict
Shaping as a close and high-quality final, with Hurkacz tipped for the title in three.
Over 23.5
Total Games
$1.90 - 1 Unit
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Hurkacz Win
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$1.70 - 2 Units
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Hurkacz 2-1
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