Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Alcaraz to edge Fritz for Tokyo title

Alcaraz is riding an incredible run of form, winning 51 of his last 54 matches and advancing into his ninth consecutive final. To put that into context, only Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic have reached more consecutive finals in the Open Era. Alcaraz has won seven of those nine finals and obviously has t be considered the favourite to reign supreme in the Japanese capital.

However, Fritz should be confident himself. Nobody has won more matches on tour since the grass season than the American, while Fritz also defeated Alcaraz in straight sets at the Laver Cup last week. Yes, the Laver Cup is nothing more than a glorified cash-grab and exhibition, but it still holds some merit and Fritz will be determined to prove he can repeat that sort of performance in a tournament that actually matters. I think Fritz can make a real contest of this - Alcaraz dropping a set to Ruud is mildly concerning - but the Spaniard still holds the edge in what has been a supremely dominant season.

Alcaraz leads 3-1. The pair have met twice in 2025, with Alcaraz winning their Wimbledon semi-final in four sets before Fritz prevailed 6-3 6-2 in the Laver Cup last week.

Alcaraz has been the best player on tour throughout the course of 2025, registering a 65-6 record for the season and coming into this clash having lost just three of his last 54 matches.

Since an early upset loss in Miami to David Goffin, Alcaraz has been in sensational form, making nine finals on the bounce and winning six of them in Monte Carlo, Rome, Roland Garros, Queen's Club, Cincinnati and the US Open. Alcaraz also took home the Rotterdam silverware in February.

It will be interesting to see if Alcaraz can maintain this current level for the remainder of the year - he's traditionally struggled at this stage of seasons in the past, with the slams finished and not much (relatively speaking) to play for.

The road to the Tokyo final has been quite rocky for Alcaraz - he injured his ankle in his opening round against Sebastian Baez before straight sets victories over Zizou Bergs and Brandon Nakashima. Alcaraz then recovered from dropping the opening set against Casper Ruud in the semi-finals, coming back to win 3-6 6-3 6-4.

Fritz has compiled a 47-17 record on the season, winning 30 of his last 36 matches since the grass swing.

However, most of those defeats have stung. Fritz went down to Alcaraz in the Wimbledon semi-finals and missed out on a great chance to win a Masters 1000 title in Toronto, going down to countryman Ben Shelton in the semi-finals.

Fritz then went down to qualifier Terence Atmane in Cincinnati before falling short once again to veteran Novak Djokovic at the US Open. The American went down to Jiri Lehecka in Davis Cup as his country was eliminated by Czechia.

Not to be deterred, Fritz bounced back by helping Team World beat Team Europe in Laver Cup and he's built on that momentum in Tokyo, defeating Gabriel Diallo, Nuno Borges, Sebastian Korda and Jenson Brooksby to reach the final. Fritz - who won the Tokyo title in 2022 - served out of a tree against Brooksby in a 6-4 6-3 semi-final victory, firing down 13 aces.