Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Alcaraz to cruise past Baez in Tokyo opener

It's been a stunning season for Alcaraz - he has a tour-leading 61 wins with seven titles and recently reclaimed the No. 1 ranking from Jannik Sinner after beating his great rival for the US Open title. Now, the next challenge for Alcaraz is to hold onto that top spot in the rankings for the remainder of the year - something that might prove difficult. Alcaraz has struggled at this stage of the season so far in his career, winning just one title post-US Open - but that did come this time last year in the Beijing final, where he outlasted Sinner in a deciding set tiebreak.

Alcaraz couldn't have asked for a better first round opponent in Tokyo. Baez is in absolutely woeful form, coming into this clash having lost 13 of his last 17 matches. The Argentine struggles on hardcourt at the best of times, but this part of the season has proven extra challenging - indeed, Baez lost all six matches after the US Open last year, while he's only ever won one match during the Asian swing in his entire career. Back Alcaraz to win this with minimal fuss.

Alcaraz leads 2-0, although they haven't played in three years. The Spaniard won in straight sets at the 2021 Next Gen Finals before Baez retired after two sets at the 2022 US Open.

It's been a magical season for Alcaraz - he's put together a 61-6 record, winning seven titles and climbing back to World No. 1.

The Spaniard's run started with the clay swing and he hasn't taken his foot off the pedal.

Indeed, Alcaraz has advanced to a staggering eight consecutive finals, converting six of those into titles - including Monte Carlo, Rome, Roland Garros, Queen's Club, Cincinnati and the US Open.

Alcaraz arrives for his Tokyo debut on a 13-match winning streak at tour-level after claiming back-to-back titles in Cincinnati and the US Open, overcoming Sinner in both finals.

However, Alcaraz did lose a match during the recent Laver Cup, going down in straight sets to Taylor Fritz as Team Europe lost the trophy to Team World.

It's been a horror season for Baez, who comes into this contest with a negative 16-19 record on the season and down at No. 41 in the rankings.

However, Baez is playing far worse than that ranking - in fact, he's barely at top 100 level at the moment, especially on hardcourt.

The Argentine has lost 13 of his last 17 matches and hasn't won back-to-back outings since Bucharest in April on clay.

Going back further, Baez has only won five matches on hardcourt since the 2024 Australian Open. He's only won one match during the Asian swing in his entire career and he almost certainly won't be doubling that tally on Thursday night in Tokyo.