ATP Tennis Predictions This Week - Basel & Vienna Outright Value Tips
The article previews the ATP Tour tournaments in Basel and Vienna, focusing on value betting tips for outright winners. Four players are highlighted: Jiri Lehecka, Hubert Hurkacz, Jakub Mensik, and Matteo Berrettini. The reasoning for selecting these players includes favorable draws, recent form, strong indoor records, and the vulnerability or fatigue of top seeds. The article also discusses why leading favorites like Alcaraz, Medvedev, and Zverev are less appealing due to form or motivation concerns. The main conclusion is that there is value in backing select outsiders.
- Outright winner predictions for ATP 500 events in Basel & Vienna this week
- Four value tips provided, with reasoning & stats
- Bet on Outright Winner tennis markets with Picklebet
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Our best four selections for both events can be found in the table below.
ATP Tennis Outright Winner Betting MarketsBet on Tennis with PicklebetBet Here
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| Bet | Odds | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Jiri Lehecka - ATP Basel Winner | $9.50 @ Picklebet | Lehecka is 8-3 in his last 11 matches + landed in nice section of draw to make SFs. Five LL/Qualifers in his quarter, while top seed Shelton is out of form. Made two previous indoor finals at ATP level |
| Hubert Hurkacz - ATP Basel Winner | $15 @ Picklebet | Hurkacz is 10-3 in his last 13 matches, while two of eight ATP titles have come indoors. Landed in favourable section + big serve will be dangerous in quick conditions - the Pole has been broken just 12 times across that 13-match period, consistently winning over 80% first serve points |
| Jakub Mensik - ATP Vienna Winner | $21 @ Picklebet | Mensik in good quarter of the draw - faces a qualifier R1 & maybe another qualifier in R2. Medvedev is seeded QF opponent, but he's coming off Almaty title last week - in same spot last year, Medvedev lost in R16. Mensik made QFs in only previous Vienna appearance in 2024, good value to go deep |
| Matteo Berrettini - ATP Vienna Winner | $51 @ Picklebet | Admittedly a longshot, but there's a bit of value surrounding Berrettini. The Italian is a former Basel semi-finalist & also made QFs in last two years. R1 opponent Etcheverry is beatable, while seeded players in his quarter - Cobolli & De Minaur - remain vulnerable & in unconvincing form. Decent route to a SF & from there, anything can happen |
Why we're fading the big guns
ATP Basel
- Ben Shelton - lost four of last five matches, can't be justified as one of the leading favourites
- Arthur Fils - form has dipped since winning Cincinnati Masters, lost vs Struff in Brussels SFs last week, faces quick turnaround & change of conditions
- Novak Djokovic - can't be trusted at this stage of his career outside of the Slams/Masters - tricky R1 draw vs indoors specialist Humbert
- Rafael Jodar - still unproven indoors, has a tendency to throw in horror performances
- Taylor Fritz - struggled with knee issues all season, yet to win ATP indoors title & coming off loss vs Musetti in Lyon final at the weekend in different conditions
ATP Vienna
- Alexander Zverev - recently spoke of burnout, has already secured year-end No. 1 ranking, surely motivation for remainder of season rests with Paris Masters/ATP Finals
- Carlos Alcaraz - can't be backed as $2.30 favourite. Still too volatile & only one of his 27 ATP titles has come indoors
- Daniil Medvedev - coming off Almaty title on Sunday, now makes long trip to Vienna. Medvedev was in this spot 12 months ago & lost in the R16, has played five straight weeks & burnout/fatigue must be creeping in
- Flavio Cobolli/Alex De Minaur - both players well below their best for the last couple of months - and in Demon's case, since February. Would be hugely surprised if either made the final, let alone won
ATP Basel & Vienna Betting Odds
ATP Vienna
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | $2.30 |
| Alexander Zverev | $4.33 |
| Alex de Minaur | $9.00 |
| Daniil Medvedev | $9.00 |
| Tommy Paul | $19.00 |
| Learner Tien | $21.00 |
| Jakub Menšík | $21.00 |
| Frances Tiafoe | $29.00 |
| Andrey Rublev | $29.00 |
| Francisco Cerúndolo | $29.00 |
| Brandon Nakashima | $29.00 |
| Flavio Cobolli | $34.00 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | $34.00 |
| Karen Khachanov | $34.00 |
| Matteo Berrettini | $51.00 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | $51.00 |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | $67.00 |
| Cameron Norrie | $67.00 |
| Arthur Fery | $81.00 |
| Luca Van Assche | $101.00 |
| Grigor Dimitrov | $101.00 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | $126.00 |
| Luciano Darderi | $126.00 |
| Tomás Martín Etcheverry | $126.00 |
| Daniel Mérida | $126.00 |
| Martín Landaluce | $151.00 |
| Ignacio Buse | $151.00 |
| Jurij Rodionov | $201.00 |
ATP Basel
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic | $6.00 |
| Arthur Fils | $6.50 |
| Ben Shelton | $6.50 |
| Jiří Lehečka | $8.50 |
| Rafael Jódar | $9.00 |
| Taylor Fritz | $9.50 |
| Casper Ruud | $15.00 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | $15.00 |
| Ugo Humbert | $19.00 |
| Alex Michelsen | $21.00 |
| Holger Rune | $34.00 |
| Valentin Vacherot | $34.00 |
| Denis Shapovalov | $34.00 |
| Nuno Borges | $41.00 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | $41.00 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | $41.00 |
| Zizou Bergs | $41.00 |
| Quentin Halys | $41.00 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | $51.00 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | $51.00 |
| Dominic Stricker | $67.00 |
| Jerome Kym | $81.00 |
| Stan Wawrinka | $101.00 |
| Mariano Navone | $151.00 |
Odds From Picklebet. Correct from 26/10/26.
Verdict
Our four value selections for Basel & Vienna are below.
Jiri Lehecka
ATP Basel Winner
$9.50 - 1 Unit
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Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Basel Winner
$15.00 - 1 Unit
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Jakub Mensik
ATP Vienna Winner
$21.00 - 1 Unit
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Matteo Berrettini
ATP Vienna Winner
$51.00 - 1 Unit
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