Andrey Rublev vs Andrea Pellegrino ATP Bastad Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Pellegrino can snatch a set

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 16 Jul 2026 01:32

Andrew Hendrie 2 hours ago

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Andrey Rublev vs Andrea Pellegrino predictions for Thursday's ATP Bastad R2 match
Rublev down on confidence & on three-match losing streak
Pellegrino in solid form, Rublev with recent struggles vs players outside top 100
The match is scheduled to start around 9.00pm AEST on Thursday July 16

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Andrey Rublev vs Andrea Pellegrino ATP Bastad Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Andrey Rublev is on a three-match losing streak as the former champion begins his Swedish Open campaign in Bastad on Thursday against Andrea Pellegrino.

Andrey Rublev vs Andrea Pellegrino ATP Bastad Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Rublev vs Pellegrino Stats & Trends
Rublev vs Pellegrino Head To Head
Andrey Rublev Form Analysis
Andrea Pellegrino Form Analysis
Rublev vs Pellegrino Live Stream

Rublev has endured a few rough years now, relatively speaking. Gone are the years he was a top five player and consistently beating those ranked below him, only losing to the top players at the business end of big tournaments.

The 28-year-old comes into this clash having lost his last three matches, while he's also dropped at least one set in his last eight. There's no doubt Rublev is doing it tough at the moment and even lower-ranked players are troubling him - indeed, he's lost his last two matches against opponents outside the top 100 and at least one set in his last eight against that bracket of players.

Which is why I give Pellegrino a good chance of making this a competitive contest. The Italian has enjoyed a pretty nice rise this year and has a positive 6-4 record at tour-level, which is impressive for someone ranked No. 138 in the world.

Pellegrino beat Frances Tiafoe in Rome earlier this season and had a good win over rising star Nikolai Budkov Kjaer in his Bastad opener. With Rublev struggling and down on confidence, I'll back Pellegrino to win a set here, with a smaller stake on the top seed digging it out in three.

Rublev vs Pellegrino Stats & Trends

Rublev has lost his last three matches
Rublev has lost his last two matches vs players outside the top 100
Rublev has lost 1+ set in his last eight matches
Rublev has lost 1+ set in his last eight matches vs players outside the top 100
Pellegrino has won 14 of his last 19 matches at all levels
Pellegrino has won at least one set in 16 of his last 19 matches

Rublev vs Pellegrino Head To Head

This will be the first career meeting between the pair.

Andrey Rublev Form Analysis

2026 Record: 21-13
ATP Bastad Record: 6-2
Current Ranking: No. 16
Career-High Ranking: No. 5 (2021)

Look, it's been a decent season for Rublev, but he's not really making an impact like he used to and he continues to hover around the top 20 without threatening to go higher.

Rublev made the final in Barcelona and reached semi-finals in Hong Kong, Doha and Dubai, along with a quarter-final at the Rome Masters.

However, his results at the slams have been disappointing - a third round exit at the Australian Open followed by a R16 elimination at Roland Garros and first round loss to Roman Safiullin at Wimbledon.

Rublev will be hoping to restore some confidence after arriving in Bastad on a three-match losing run - he won the title here in 2023, but lost his opening match in his most-recent appearance in 2024.

Andrea Pellegrino Form Analysis

2026 Record: 6-4
ATP Bastad Record: 2-2
Current Ranking: No. 138
Career-High Ranking: No. 109 (June 2026)

Pellegrino was on the cusp of making a top 100 debut last month, but after failing to defend some ranking points from last year, he's dropped back down again to No. 138 coming into this tournament.

Nevertheless, I'd say Pellegrino was playing top 100 tennis for much of this year, including reaching the quarter-finals in Santiago and his best run at ATP level, which came at home at the Rome Masters, where he moved past Luca Nardi, Arthur Fils and Frances Tiafoe before going down to Jannik Sinner in the R16.

The Italian also qualified at Roland Garros, but ran into countryman and eventual runner-up Flavio Cobolli in the first round.

Pellegrino predictably struggled on grass, but is looking to regain some form here in Bastad, where he opened his account with a dominant 6-3 6-2 victory over Nicolai Budkov Kjaer.