Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Demon aiming for first ATP clay final in Hamburg

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Fri 22 May 2026 01:56

Andrew Hendrie 22 May 2026

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Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul predictions for Friday's ATP Hamburg semi-finals
De Minaur has won five of the six previous meetings - last three wins in deciding set
Over 22.5 games predicted, with de Minaur prevailing in three
The match is scheduled to start around 1.30am AEST on Saturday May 23

Expired

Alex De Minaur (Photo by Getty Images)

Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Alex de Minaur targets his first tour-level clay final when he resumes his rivalry with Tommy Paul in the Hamburg Open semi-finals on Friday.

Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
De Minaur vs Paul Stats & Trends
De Minaur vs Paul Head To Head
Alex de Minaur Form Analysis
Tommy Paul Form Analysis
De Minaur vs Paul Live Stream

It's been a rough last couple of months on tour for de Minaur, but he's returned to some of his top form in Hamburg this week, advancing into the semi-finals with three victories over very good players in Francisco Cerundolo, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Luciano Darderi. All of a sudden, the Aussie stands just two wins away from hitting a career-high ranking of No. 5 and maiden ATP clay title.

Meanwhile, Paul has also put together a memorable tournament, saving seven match points in the second round against Tomas Martin Etcheverry before taking care of local hope Daniel Altmaier in straight sets in the quarters.

These two are familiar foes, but it's been de Minaur who has held the edge, winning five of the six previous meetings - although Paul won the most-recent and only clash on clay in Rome last year.

More often than not, it's been a battle between these two and these slower, heavier conditions in Hamburg should make for some more lengthy rallies. I'm backing Over 22.5 total games, with de Minaur outlasting Paul in another gruelling three-setter.

De Minaur vs Paul Stats & Trends

De Minaur has won 21 of his last 29 clay matches vs players outside the top 10
De Minaur has won 11 of his last 13 semi-final matches vs players outside of Jannik Sinner
De Minaur has seen Over 22.5 games in 10 of his last 14 matches
Four of the six previous meetings have seen Over 22.5 games
De Minaur's last three wins over Paul have come in three sets
Paul has lost five of his last seven semi-final matches
Paul has a 3-8 record vs top 10 players on clay

De Minaur vs Paul Head To Head

De Minaur leads 5-1, but Paul won their only encounter on clay.

Year	Winner	Event	Round	Surface	Score
2025	Tommy Paul	ATP Masters 1000 Rome	Round of 16	Outdoor Clay	7–5, 6–3
2023	Alex de Minaur	Los Cabos	Quarterfinal	Outdoor Hard	6–4, 3–6, 6–3
2023	Alex de Minaur	Acapulco	Final	Outdoor Hard	3–6, 6–4, 6–1
2022	Alex de Minaur	Eastbourne	Quarterfinal	Outdoor Grass	6–2, 4–6, 6–4
2022	Alex de Minaur	ATP Masters 1000 Rome	Round of 32	Outdoor Clay	7–5, 6–4
2022	Alex de Minaur	ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells	Round of 32	Outdoor Hard	7–6(2), 6–4

Alex de Minaur Form Analysis

2026 Record: 18-8
ATP Hamburg Record: 3-0
Current Ranking: No. 8
Career-High Ranking: No. 6

De Minaur had struggled to build any real continuity since winning the Rotterdam title in early February, with his form slipping across recent tournaments.

Over his last seven events, the Australian had only managed back-to-back wins once, with a string of surprise losses to lower-ranked opponents exposing a dip in the consistency that has long been a hallmark of his game.

Defeats to Hamad Medjedovic in Barcelona and Rafael Jodar in Madrid highlighted those issues, while his Rome campaign followed a similar pattern, ending in a three-set loss to wildcard Matteo Arnaldi in his opening match.

There has, however, been a clear lift in Hamburg. De Minaur responded with a strong comeback win over Francisco Cerundolo, prevailing 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, before backing it up with one of his better performances of the season to defeat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 in challenging conditions to reach the quarter-finals.

De Minaur then went to another level against the in-form Luciano Darderi in the quarter-finals, dropping just three games in a masterclass 6-0 6-3 triumph.

Tommy Paul Form Analysis

2026 Record: 23-9
ATP Hamburg Record: 4-1
Current Ranking: No. 26
Career-High Ranking: No. 8 (June 2025)

It's been a pretty consistent season for Paul, but he's dropped to his lowest ranking in a few years at No. 26 after injury derailed a lot of his 2025 campaign.

Paul won his fifth ATP title on the clay of Houston and was also runner-up in Delray Beach, along with reaching the Miami quarter-finals, fourth round of the Australian Open and semi-finals of Adelaide.

The 29-year-old went 1-2 across Madrid and Rome, but has made up for lost time on European clay in Hamburg this week.

Paul opened his campaign with a dominant 6-1 6-3 win over Ethan Quinn before an epic triumph over Tomas Martin Etcheverry, saving seven match points across two days to prevail 6-7(5) 7-6(5) 7-6(7).

The American then registered a 6-2 7-5 victory over Daniel Altmaier to progress into his fourth semi-final of the year.