Alex de Minaur vs Stan Wawrinka Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Demon too consistent for Wawrinka in Rotterdam

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Wed 11 Feb 2026 22:48

Andrew Hendrie 11 Feb 2026

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Alex de Minaur vs Stan Wawrinka predictions for Thursday's ATP Rotterdam Round 2
De Minaur has made the final of Rotterdam the last two years
Wawrinka is the 2025 champion in Rotterdam
Prediction: Demon too consistent on these slow courts, backed to cover with Under 20.5 games
The match is scheduled to start around 1.00am AEDT on Friday February 13

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Alex De Minaur (Photo by Getty Images)

Alex de Minaur vs Stan Wawrinka Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Top seed Alex de Minaur continues his pursuit of a maiden ABN AMRO Open title in Rotterdam when he faces veteran Stan Wawrinka for a spot in the quarter-finals on Thursday.

Alex de Minaur vs Stan Wawrinka Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
De Minaur vs Wawrinka Stats & Trends
De Minaur vs Wawrinka Head To Head
Alex de Minaur Form Analysis
Stan Wawrinka Form Analysis
De Minaur vs Wawrinka Live Stream

De Minaur has won nine of his last 11 matches in Rotterdam, finishing runner-up in the last two years to Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. With the 'Big 2' absent from Rotterdam this tournament, it seems like it's de Minaur's time to shine in the Dutch city. The Aussie got his campaign off to the perfect start in his opening round, coming through the tough challenge of Arthur Fils in straight sets. Meanwhile, Wawrinka - the 2015 Rotterdam champion - overcame a late change of opponent and an astonishing 23-year age cap to conquer Dutch lucky loser and 17-year-old Thijs Boogaard in straights.

Wawrinka has been playing some brilliant tennis to launch his final year on tour, but on these slow, grippy courts, I think this is a terrible matchup for him. De Minaur will simply get everything back, with his relentless retrieving gradually grinding the 40-year-old into submission. The Demon has a ridiculous record against lower-ranked players and I don't think he'll have any problems here. Backing the Aussie to cover a -4.5 games line and Under 20.5 total games.

De Minaur vs Wawrinka Stats & Trends

De Minaur has won seven of his last eight matches
De Minaur is 69-8 vs players ranked outside the top 40 since the start of 2024
De Minaur is 31-4 vs players outside the top 100 since the start of 2023
De Minaur has won nine of his last 11 matches in Rotterdam
De Minaur has covered a -4.5 games line in eight of those nine Rotterdam wins
De Minaur has seen Under 20.5 games in four of his last five best-of-three matches
Wawrinka has lost his last four matches vs top 10 players
Wawrinka hasn't made an ATP quarter-final since Stockholm 2024
The only previous meeting between the pair was a 6-3 6-0 win for De Minaur at Monte Carlo 2024

De Minaur vs Wawrinka Head To Head

De Minaur leads 1-0, crushing Wawrinka on the clay of Monte Carlo in 2024.

Year	Tournament	Surface	Round	Winner	Score
2024	Monte Carlo	Clay	Round of 64	Alex de Minaur	6–3, 6–0

Alex de Minaur Form Analysis

2026 Record: 7-2
ATP Rotterdam Record: 14-5
Current Ranking: No. 8
Career-High Ranking: No. 6 (2024)

It's been another solid start to the season for De Minaur, who is trying to take his game to the next level in 2026, pushing for a spot inside the top five and to challenge for Masters and Grand Slam silverware.

De Minaur bounced back from an opening loss to Casper Ruud to beat the likes of Jakub Mensik and Hubert Hurkacz in the United Cup before reaching another Australian Open quarter-final, where he crushed Frances Tiafoe and Alexander Bublik in straight sets before going down to Carlos Alcaraz.

Opting to bypass Australia's Davis Cup tie with Ecuador this past weekend, a fresh de Minaur came out of the blocks firing in Rotterdam, dispatching the dangerous Arthur Fils 7-6 6-2 in his opening round.

The Aussie has excelled at this level lately, winning a whopping 49 matches at ATP 500 level since the start of 2023.

Player	Wins	ATP 500 Titles
Alex de Minaur	49	3
Carlos Alcaraz	44	6
Jannik Sinner	43	6
Alexander Zverev	43	2
Daniil Medvedev	42	2

Stan Wawrinka Form Analysis

2026 Record: 5-6
ATP Rotterdam Record: 13-6
Current Ranking: No. 106
Career-High Ranking: No. 3 (2014)

Wawrinka is playing his best tennis in years at 40 years of age and with his opening round win in Rotterdam, he's currently back into the top 100, moving up to No. 98 in the live rankings.

After some great United Cup performances and a third round run at the Australian Open, Wawrinka has continued his good form in Rotterdam, where he won the title 11 years ago.

The Swiss was scheduled to face Aleksandar Vukic in the first round, but the Aussie was a late withdrawal, meaning 17-year-old Thijs Boogaard was a late change of opponent. Wawrinka wasn't phased, registering a routine 6-4 6-3 victory.

Wawrinka knows it only gets tougher from here, but he's pushed the likes of Taylor Fritz and Felix Auger-Aliassime already in 2026 and won't back down from another top 10 challenge.

“He’s a tough player,” Wawrinka said of de Minaur.

“Especially in these conditions, it’s going to be difficult to generate something. But I’m looking forward to the challenge. I’ve been playing some good matches against top players, so I’m always trying to push myself.”