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Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm NRL Round 21 Tips - Thursday night special for the Storm

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Tue 22 Jul 2025 17:13

Jeremy Darke 22 Jul 2025

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Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm expert predictions for Thursday’s Round 21 NRL game
Kick off is at 7:50 PM (AEST) at Allianz Stadium
Melbourne Storm dominate Thursday games with 11 wins out of the last 12.
Jahrome Hughes key player, anticipated to score, boosting Storm's prospects.

Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm NRL Round 21 Tips

Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm, Round 21 2025 - Expert Prediction

Melbourne will add to their phenomenal Thursday night record, covering the line as the away favourite against Sydney to open Round 21 of the NRL.

Roosters vs Storm Rd21 Cheat Sheet

The Storm have a win-rate of 79% on Thursday night since the start of the 2019 season, winning 11 of their last 12 round openers. On the contrary, the Roosters have lost 5 of their last 8 Thursday appearances.

This stat isn’t the be all or end all, but it adds significantly to the weight towards Melbourne as the favourite. The Storm stumbled last week through no fault but their own with handling errors costing them field position. Don’t expect that against the Roosters who are in the bottom six in possession and territory this season.

Without Munster in the side I expect two things, which will affect two markets. The Storm will need to rely on their defence and shut down what was a stagnant attack from the Roosters last week. The second, Jahrome Hughes will have the ball in his hands even more.

With that in mind, I like the Roosters to score less than 20.5 points and Jahrome Hughes to follow up his treble against the Roosters in the Preliminary Final last year with another try, bringing his tally to 6 tries in his last 5 games against Sydney.

The Storm have won 11 of the last 12 matches against the Roosters.
Melbourne have covered the 4.5-point line in their last 10 victories over Sydney.
Melbourne have won 11 of 12 Thursday night matches since the start of the 2023 season.
Melbourne have given up 21 points or less in 6 of their last 7 matches.
Jahrome Hughes has scored in 3 of his last 4 matches against the Roosters.

Head to Head

The Storm dominate against the Roosters, winning the last 6 contests and 11 of the past 12. Melbourne knocked Sydney out of the NRL Finals last season in their latest matchup, getting up 48-18.

5 of the last 7 matches between the Roosters and Storm has gone under the game total

Sydney Roosters Form Analysis

A “quiet” game from James Tedesco resulted in one of the flattest performances from the Roosters attack in the last couple of months, going down to the Sharks 31-18 on Friday night.

Despite scoring a try there was very little involvement from Sydney’s fullback in their loss, amounting just 102 run metres and no other attacking stats. With Chad Townsend coming into the No.6, the Roosters attack did not have its usual threatening shape and the Sharks were able to control the territory battle 59%-41%.

It is difficult to put your thumb on what Easts are at the moment, getting some strong victories, but also disappearing in matches like last week and in their 30-28 loss to West a few weeks back.

The Roosters do not win the field position battle often, actually 17th in in Tackles inside their opposition 20m, rely heavily on their efficiency when attacking the line. With their halves pairing being disrupted at the moment through Hugo Savala’s injury, we could see them struggle to put up their usual points haul of 24.8 per game.

Sydney Roosters Team News

Ethan King comes into the centres to replace Billy Smith who suffered a concussion last week.

Chad Towsend has been dropped with Sandon Smith coming in to replace him. However, Hugo Savala has been named in the reserves and could come in late.

Victor Radley suffered a shoulder injury and could be on the sidelines for an extended time. Siua Wong returned earlier than expected and came in at lock.

Sydney Roosters Team List

1. James Tedesco

2. Daniel Tupou

3. Ethan King

4. Robert Toia

5. Mark Nawaqanitawase

6. Sandon Smith

7. Sam Walker

8. Naufahu Whyte

9. Connor Watson

10. Lindsay Collins

11. Angus Crichton

12. Salesi Foketi

13. Siua Wong

Interchange

14. Zach Dockar-Clay

15. Blake Steep

16. Egan Butcher

17. Spencer Leniu

Reserves

18. Tom Rodwell

19. Taylor Losalu

20. Makahesi Makatoa

21. Benaiah Ioelu

22. Hugo Savala

Melbourne Storm Form Analysis

The Storm suffered their first loss at home this season going down to Manly 18-16. It was a poor first half from Melbourne that put them on the back foot gaining just 43% possession and 41% of the territory and Manly running in their 3 tries in the first 40 mins.

It was a very un-Melbourne like performance riddled with 12 handling errors that put them under pressure all match. It was a dud day and they will move on, especially after the likely spray they got from Craig Bellamy.

Melbourne still rank first in the NRL in opposition run metres and are second in the league averaging just 18.5 points conceded per game. They are in a slight dip, dealing with the Ryan Papenhuyzen injury and Cam Munster’s availability, however, they are expected to be back to themselves once again this week.

Melbourne Storm Team News

Cam Munster has been given time off for his father’s funeral with Tyran Wishart taking over in the No.6.

Stefano Utoikamanu comes back into the starting side with Yui Kamikamica going to the bench.

Nelson Asofa-Solomona has been banned for two weeks for an elbow, being replaced by Kane Bradley and Bronson Garlick on the bench.

Melbourne Storm Team List

1. Nick Meaney

2. Grant Anderson

3. Jack Howarth

4. Joe Chan

5. Xavier Coates

6. Tyran Wishart

7. Jahrome Hughes

8. Stefano Utoikamanu

9. Harry Grant

10. Josh King

11. Shawn Blore

12. Eli Katoa

13. Trent Loiero

Interchange

14. Bronson Garlick

15. Ativalu Lisati

16. Tui Kamikamica

17. Kane Bradley

Reserves

18. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown

19. Josiah Pahulu

20. Jonah Pezet

21. Coby Williamson

22. Lazarus Vaalepu

Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2025 Round 21 FAQ’s

How to watch Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2025 Round 21?

You can watch the Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2025 Round 21 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2025 Round 21?

To buy tickets to the Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2025 Round 21 game check the NRL website or the official Sydney Roosters site.

Verdict

Sydney Roosters v Melbourne Storm

The Storm will cover as 4.5-point favourites, holding the Roosters to less than 21 points and Jahrome Hughes crossing for a try.

Melbourne -4.5

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Sydney Under 20.5

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