Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights NRL Tips - Knights' defence to keep it close at GIO

Canberra bring an incredible eight-match winning streak into this encounter and with seven wins from eight in the nation's capital this season (only loss vs Bulldogs when they were leading by 20 points at half-time), you'd be a brave man to bet against them here - especially vs a Knights side who are coming off a heartbreaking defeat last week and have all but certainly ran their race for 2025.

So what are the plays for this clash? Look, I know Raiders 1-12 didn't get up last week against an Eels side without Mitch Moses, but I can't get off the bandwagon just yet. Parramatta were actually leading 16-12 at half-time and only three converted tries for Canberra from the 73rd minute blew out the full-time score to 40-16. Additionally, the Knights have actually won the last two meetings in Canberra and their defence can keep this game close - three of their last four defeats have also been by a 1-12 margin, including last week's 20-15 defeat to another top four side in the Warriors. Recent encounters between these teams have also been extremely tight, with three of the last four decided by four points or less - including a 22-18 win for the Raiders when these teams squared off just a few weeks ago.

The Unders have been the play in games involving Newcastle all season, so backing another relatively low-scoring affair here. As for anytime tryscorer, Kaeo Weekes has emerged as one of the premier fullbacks in the game this season and he's crossed in three of his last four appearances against the Knights.

The Knights have won three of the last five meetings between the teams and four of the last five in Canberra. However, the Raiders prevailed 22-18 at McDonald Jones Stadium back in Round 17 this season, with Canberra racing out to a 16-0 lead at half-time and holding on for victory.

It's been an extraordinary season for the Raiders and they have their minor premiership destiny in their own hands with seven rounds remaining.

A 16th win of the season here would propel the Raiders four points ahead of Melbourne going into Round 22. Canberra also have another bye coming up and the Storm suffered a big blow with Jahrome Hughes dislocating his shoulder on Thursday night, so the Green Machine have everything going in their favour for a first minor premiership in 35 years.

Ricky Stuart deserves immense credit for assembling and galvanising this team - Canberra has never been a luxurious destination to recruit high-profile players, but this group is on the cusp of something special.

Canberra could certainly be more ruthless and they will probably need to be in the finals, but again they did what they needed to do to ultimately blow out the Eels by 24 points last week, with Owen Pattie and Jed Stuart crossing for doubles.

Seb Kris misses this game due to concussion, so Simi Sasagi moves into the centres and Noah Martin joins the bench.

1. Kaeo Weekes

2. Jed Stuart

3. Matthew Timoko

4. Simi Sasagi

5. Xavier Savage

6. Ethan Strange

7. Jamal Fogarty

8. Josh Papali’i

9. Tom Starling

10. Joseph Tapine

11. Hudson Young

12. Zac Hosking

13. Corey Horsburgh

14. Owen Pattie

15. Noah Martin

16. Morgan Smithies

17. Ata Mariota

18. Manaia Waitere

19. Trey Mooney

20. Joseph Roddy

21. Danny Levi

22. Ethan Sanders

It's been a tough old season for the Knights and their year hit a new, heartbreaking low last week as they suffered a 20-15 loss on the siren to the Warriors.

Newcastle had been the better team for basically the entire 80 minutes, but ultimately that wasn't enough as Leka Halasima carved them open with a 40m dash off a field goal charge down attempt.

Attack has been a constant issue for the Knights this season - they haven't been able to settle on a halves combination, while Kalyn Ponga was operating below his best before suffering another injury.

It's a shame for Newcastle as their defence is actually amongst the best in the NRL - a season of what could have been, which might even cost Adam O'Brien his job.

Just one change from last week's team, with Jack Hetherington returning on the interchange after four games in NSW Cup. Thomas Cant is the man to make way.

1. Dane Gagai

2. Dominic Young

3. Fletcher Hunt

4. Bradman Best

5. Greg Marzhew

6. Jackson Hastings

7. Jack Cogger

8. Jacob Saifiti

9. Jayden Brailey

10. Leo Thompson

11. Jermaine McEwen

12. Kai Pearce-Paul

13. Phoenix Crossland

14. Tyson Gamble

15. Mathew Croker

16. Tyson Frizell

17. Jack Hetherington

18. Thomas Cant

19. James Schiller

20. Matthew Arthur

21. Brodie Jones

22. Kyle McCarthy