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NRL Round 21 Predictions: Upsets Brewing or Favourites Rolling?

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Tue 22 Jul 2025 20:10

Jeremy Darke 22 Jul 2025

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Jez & Ryan give their tips for every match of NRL Round 21
Will the home favourites continue to cover?
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NRL Round 21 Tips for every match

NRL Round 21 Predictions: Upsets Brewing or Favourites Rolling?

Round 21 of the 2025 NRL season throws up some fascinating matchups, and the Ahead of the Game crew are once again putting their reputations on the line with full-game predictions, stat breakdowns and the latest betting trends.

NRL Round 21 Predictions: Upsets Brewing or Favourites Rolling?
Is This Bellamy's Bounceback Week?
Dragons, Cowboys & the Battle of the Untrustables
Eels Spiralling, Broncos Peaking
Stats That Matter (and Make You Money)
Can the Bulldogs Hold Off Manly?

Is This Bellamy's Bounceback Week?

Melbourne Storm -4.5Handicap/LineBET HERE

18+. T&Cs apply

The round kicks off with Melbourne Storm hosting the Roosters, and while both sides were underwhelming last week, the Storm have a dominant 11–1 record over the Chooks in their last 12 meetings. With the Roosters looking flat and Bellamy known for his mid-season course corrections, the Storm could be in for a strong statement win, especially on a Thursday night, where they tend to shine.

Dragons, Cowboys & the Battle of the Untrustables

North Queensland Cowboys vs St George DragonsOver 48.5 Game TotalBET HERE

The dabble.com.au referral code is BETSAU. 18+. T&Cs apply.

North Queensland’s defence remains a major concern, and although the Dragons have found themselves in tight battles all year, they lack the killer instinct. This one could be the wildcard matchup of the round. Both teams can pile on points — or fold like lawn chairs. Our model has it tight, but home field could give the Cowboys the edge.

Eels Spiralling, Broncos Peaking

Brisbane Broncos Over 30.5Team TotalBET HERE

18+ only. Ts and Cs apply. Think ! About your choices. Call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit the website. All bets accepted on behalf of Playup Pty Ltd Licensed in Northern Territory, Australia by NT Racing Commission. www.gamblinghelp.nsw.gov.au

Brisbane have rediscovered form and face an Eels side that collapses in second halves. With Jason Ryles testing players, Parramatta have the worst record against top-eight sides in the comp (1–9). Expect a lopsided score and big performances from the Broncos’ spine.

Stats That Matter (and Make You Money)

Storm have won 11 of 12 vs Roosters
Dragons have lost 8 games by 8 points or less
Rabbitohs have conceded first try in 4 of last 5 games
Nico Hynes has scored 3 tries in 2 games
Away underdogs have won just 30% of games this year
Home underdogs are covering at a ridiculous 61% rate

Our cheat sheets for every match include predictive scores, ATS trends, over/under data, and key try scorer form you can find all that at bets.com.au/nrl.

Can the Bulldogs Hold Off Manly?

In the final game of the round, the Dogs and Sea Eagles clash in a game where historical data gives Manly the upper hand — they've won 10 of their last 11 against Canterbury. But the Dogs have momentum. It’s a tipping coin-flip with huge ladder implications.