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St George Illawarra Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors NRL Tips - Warriors target fourth win on the trot

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 08 May 2025 11:43

Andrew Hendrie 08 May 2025

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St George Illawarra Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors expert predictions for Saturday's NRL Round 10 game
Kick off is at 5.35pm AEST at WIN Stadium
Warriors tipped for fourth win in a row; Dragons set for third straight defeat
Plenty of points expected, with the Dragons leaking 80 across their last two games
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bets

St George Illawarra Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors NRL Tips

New Zealand Warriors vs St George Illawarra Dragons, NRL Round 10 - Expert Prediction

The Warriors are flying and can continue their red-hot form by taking down an inconsistent Dragons outfit at WIN Stadium on Saturday night.

New Zealand Warriors vs St George Illawarra Dragons, NRL Round 10 - Expert Prediction
Head To Head
St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
St George Illawarra Dragons Team News
St George Illawarra Dragons Team List
New Zealand Warriors Form
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
New Zealand Warriors Team News
New Zealand Warriors Team List

Credit to the Warriors, they've bounced back in stunning fashion from their Vegas shellacking and gone on to win six of their last seven games heading into Round 10.

Luke Metcalf has emerged as one of the premier halves in the competition, steering the Warriors around the park brilliantly, while the forwards have laid the platform through the middle. After surviving a late scare against the Cowboys in Magic Round last week, I'm backing the Warriors to make it four wins on the bounce here.

The Dragons are on a two-game losing run and their form has dipped considerably over the past fortnight in disappointing defeats against the Roosters and Tigers. St George Illawarra have conceded 80 points in those two losses, so with the Warriors dropping 30 points on the Cows last week, I'm also tipping Over 46.5 total points. After making his return from a lengthy stint on the sidelines last week, Dragons winger Corey Allan can cross for a four-pointer at WIN Stadium.

Warriors have won six of their last seven games
Warriors have won three of their last four games in Australia
Dragons have lost their last two games, conceding 80 points
Dragons have seen Over 46.5 points in six of their last seven home games
Warriors have seen Over 46.5 points in four of their last five games in Australia
Dragons have seen their starting left winger score at least one try in their last seven games at WIN Stadium (Corey Allan)

Head To Head

The Warriors have won two of their last three meetings with the Dragons, but the joint-venture outfit claimed a most-recent 30-12 victory in Round 12 last season.

St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	2-3	4-1

Hard to get a good read on the Dragons over the first nine rounds of the season.

Shane Flanagan's side have defeated the likes of Melbourne and Manly, but some poor discipline has seen them lose a number of close games, while they've also produced some disastrous performances with a blowout defeat to the Roosters and falling from a winning position to an Eels side without Mitch Moses.

St George Illawarra were their own worst enemy again in Magic Round, with Jaydn Su'A making one of the biggest blunders we've seen in recent memory, fumbling the ball in the act of crossing for a try with nobody near him, with the Jahream Bula going on to run 110 metres to give the Tigers a 12-point turnaround on the stroke of half-time. The Dragons went on to lose 34-28.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
3-5	5-3	2-4	1-1

St George Illawarra Dragons Team News

Just one change for the Dragons, with 19-year-old Loko Pasifiki Tonga making his NRL debut in place of the injured Emre Guler, who is out with a shoulder issue.

Lachlan Ilias remains in the reserves despite a two-try effort in NSW Cup last week.

St George Illawarra Dragons Team List

1. Clinton Gutherson

2. Tyrell Sloan

3. Moses Suli

4. Valentine Holmes

5. Corey Allan

6. Kyle Flanagan

7. Lyhkan King-Togia

8. Toby Couchman

9. Damien Cook

10. David Klemmer

11. Dylan Egan

12. Jaydn Su’A

13. Hamish Stewart

Interchange

14. Jacob Liddle

15. Jack de Belin

16. Luciano Leilua

17. Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga

Reserves

18. Nathan Lawson

19. Raymond Faitala-Mariner

20. Lachlan Ilias

21. Blake Lawrie

22. Finau Latu

New Zealand Warriors Form

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-1	4-1	3-2

What a season it's been for the Warriors, with the Kiwi club coming into Round 10 in third spot on the ladder with a strong 6-2 record.

I certainly wouldn't have picked the Warriors to be nestled inside the top four following their heavy defeat to the Raiders to launch the season in Vegas, but Andrew Webster has done a remarkable job of turning his side's fortunes around.

Luke Metcalf has suddenly transformed into one of the leading halfbacks in the competition - and it's not just his directional play that's been impressive, with the No. 7 scoring six tries from eight games, including a double last week in the 30-26 victory over North Queensland.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
6-2	4-4	4-0	2-2

New Zealand Warriors Team News

Ed Kosi and Rocco Berry were both injured in the win over the Cowboys, but star winger Dallin Watene-Zelezniak makes a timely return from injury to play his first game of 2025, while Kurt Capewell moves into the centres.

Forward Jacob Laban returns from concussion on the pine.

New Zealand Warriors Team List

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad

2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak

3. Adam Pompey

4. Kurt Capewell

5. Taine Tuaupiki

6. Chanel Harris-Tavita

7. Luke Metcalf

8. Jackson Ford

9. Wayde Egan

10. Mitchell Barnett

11. Leka Halasima

12. Marata Niukore

13. Erin Clark

Interchange

14. Samuel Healey

15. Jacob Laban

16. Demitric Vaimauga

17. Bunty Afoa

Reserves

18. Te Maire Martin

20. Tanah Boyd

21. Tanner Stowers-Smith

22. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck

23. Eddie Ieremia

Verdict

St George Illawarra Dragons v New Zealand Warriors

The Warriors are tipped to make it four consecutive wins in a game that produces Over 46.5 points.

Corey Allan can benefit from slotting into the Dragons' starting left wing position and cross for a meat pie.

Warriors Win

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