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St George Illawarra Dragons vs Melbourne Storm NRL Tips - Hughes out for Storm; Dragons to cover

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 27 Mar 2025 13:37

Andrew Hendrie 27 Mar 2025

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St George Illawarra Dragons vs Melbourne Storm expert predictions for Saturday's NRL Round 4 game
Kick off is at 3.00pm AEDT at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
Dragons to cover a +9.5 line with Storm missing Hughes, Big Nelson & Meaney
Christian Tuipulotu has crossed for four tries in two matches this season
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bets

Jez shares all the trends pointing towards the Dragons to cover.

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Melbourne Storm, Round 4 2025 - Expert Prediction

The Dragons can cover the line at home against a Storm side without Dally M Medal winning halfback Jahrome Hughes.

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Melbourne Storm, Round 4 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head To Head
St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
St George Illawarra Dragons Team News
St George Illawarra Dragons Team List
Melbourne Storm Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Melbourne Storm Team News
Melbourne Storm Team List

While it's true the Dragons have gone 0-2 to start the season, I'm expecting them to lift for this clash. The joint-venture outfit have had two weeks to think about their disappointing collapse against the Rabbitohs in Round 2 and you know Shane Flanagan gave them a 10/10 spray and has worked them silly throughout the last fortnight.

Flanagan's style of coaching has been extremely successful against the Storm in the past - in fact, he's won five of his last seven meetings with Craig Bellamy. Furthermore, the Dragons have won three of their last four games against Melbourne at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, while they also emerged victorious as $7.50 outsiders last year down at AAMI Park against a Storm side who were pretty much full-strength.

If the Dragons are to keep it close, then a rock-solid defensive display is in order, so we're also backing Under 48.5 total points. Christian Tuipulotu has been in electric try-scoring form and can cross for another four-pointer (who knows, if it's the match winner, then Flano might even let him celebrate)...

Dragons beat Storm 18-16 in their most-recent clash in Round 22 last year
Dragons have won three of their last four meetings with Storm at Jubilee
Shane Flanagan has won five of his last seven games against the Storm
Christian Tuipulotu has scored six tries in his last four games

Head To Head

As mentioned, the Dragons came away with shock 18-16 triumph at AAMI Park last year, ambushing the Storm in front of their own fans as massive underdogs. The Storm had won the three previous meetings, scoring 38+ points in all three victories.

St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
0-2	0-2	1-1

It hasn't been the ideal start to the season for the Dragons, who went 0-2 before last week's bye.

St George Illawarra were outclassed 28-20 by the Bulldogs in their season opener before letting slip of a 24-12 lead deep into the second-half against rivals South Sydney, ultimately going down 25-24.

With another week of preparation under their belts, Flanagan will be hoping his new-look spine - which includes Clint Gutherson, Lachlan Ilias and Damien Cook - can improve on their combinations.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
0-2	1-1	0-2	0-0

St George Illawarra Dragons Team News

Flanagan has swung the axe on some of his forwards, with Blake Laurie and Raymond Faitala-Mariner dropped to the reserves.

David Klemmer will make his club debut off the bench after joining from the Tigers, while Toby Couchman moves into starting prop. Dylan Egan also joins the pine for his NRL debut.

St George Illawarra Dragons Team List

1. Clinton Gutherson

2. Tyrell Sloan

3. Moses Suli

4. Valentine Holmes

5. Christian Tuipulotu

6. Kyle Flanagan

7. Lachlan Ilias

8. Toby Couchman

9. Damien Cook

10. Emre Guler

11. Luciano Leilua

12. Jaydn Su’A

13. Jack de Belin

Interchange

14. Jacob Liddle

15. David Klemmer

16. Hamish Stewart

17. Dylan Egan

Reserves

18. Mathew Feagai

19. Raymond Faitala-Mariner

20. Blake Lawrie

21. Tom Eisenhuth

22. Lyhkan King-Togia

Melbourne Storm Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-0	1-1	2-0

Melbourne are exactly where everyone expects them to be for the majority of the 2025 NRL season - flying high at the top of the table.

The Storm are 2-0 to begin the season, crushing the hapless Eels 56-18 and edging out the Panthers 30-24 either side of the bye.

However, it's tough to accurately gauge how well the Storm are actually playing right now - the Eels are whipping boys to start the season, while Bellamy was filthy with how his team struggled to put away an understrength Penrith outfit that were missing Dylan Edwards and lost Nathan Cleary early on.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
1-1	2-0	1-0	1-0

Melbourne Storm Team News

Huge loss for the Storm with star halfback Jahrome Hughes out injured with a broken hand.

Big man Nelson Asofa-Solomona is also sidelined after failing an HIA following the win over Penrith. Nick Meaney suffered a horrific hit to his jaw and will miss this game too, while Grant Anderson is also in some doubt, but has been shifted to the centres.

Mr Fix It Tyran Wishart replaces Hughes at halfback, while Will Warbrick makes a timely return from concussion on the wing.

Melbourne Storm Team List

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen

2. William Warbrick

3. Jack Howarth

4. Grant Anderson

5. Xavier Coates

6. Cameron Munster

7. Tyran Wishart

8. Stefano Utoikamanu

9. Harry Grant

10. Josh King

11. Shawn Blore

12. Eliesa Katoa

13. Trent Loiero

Interchange

14. Bronson Garlick

15. Alec MacDonald

16. Tui Kamikamica

17. Lazarus Vaalepu

Reserves

18. Kane Bradley

19. Marion Seve

20. Keagan Russell-Smith

21. Sualauvi Faalogo

22. Angus Hinchey

Verdict

St George Illawarra Dragons v Melbourne Storm

The Dragons have enjoyed recent success against the Storm and have a winning record over Craig Bellamy's side at this venue across the last four meetings.

Melbourne are tipped to struggle without Jahrome Hughes calling the shots, while flying Dragons winger Christian Tuipulotu can cross for a fifth try of the season.