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Canberra Raiders vs North Queensland Cowboys NRL Tips - Sticky's Green Machine to break down again in humid Townsville

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 27 Mar 2025 13:37

Andrew Hendrie 27 Mar 2025

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North Queensland Cowboys vs Canberra Raiders expert predictions for Saturday's NRL Round 4 game
Kick off is at 5.35pm AEDT at Queensland Country Bank Stadium
Cowboys to open their account for 2025; have won last six meetings vs Raiders
Jaxon Purdue tipped for ATS after Canberra conceded 4 tries to Garrick last week
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bets

The Cowboys get a lift at home in Townsville.

North Queensland Cowboys vs Canberra Raiders, NRL Round 4 2025 - Expert Prediction

The Cowboys are tipped to win their first game of the season in Townsville, continuing their strong record against a Raiders side who shipped 40 points to Manly on the road last week.

North Queensland Cowboys vs Canberra Raiders, NRL Round 4 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head To Head
North Queensland Cowboys Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
North Queensland Cowboys Team News
North Queensland Cowboys Team List
Canberra Raiders Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Canberra Raiders Team News
Canberra Raiders Team List

Anchored near the bottom of the ladder after a horror 0-3 start, it's time the Cowboys lifted and this looms as a great opportunity for Todd Payten's side to register their first victory of the season.

North Queensland showcased some improvement in last week's loss to the Broncos and were arguably the better side in the opening half - they just couldn't convert their chances, missing the experience of Chad Townsend for those fifth-tackle options. However, I'm backing them to bounce back in Townsville, where they've won their last four meetings with the Raiders.

The Cowboys have also conquered the Green Machine in their last six meetings, so they clearly enjoy this matchup with Ricky Stuart's troops. I'm backing the Cowboys' attack to click in the hot and humid conditions they so dearly love, while Jaxon Purdue looks good value for Anytime/First Tryscorer, with Canberra leaking multiple tries down their left edge against Manly last week.

Cowboys have won the last six meetings between the teams
Cowboys have won their last four games vs Raiders in Townsville
Cowboys have won five of their last seven games in Townsville
Raiders have lost eight of their last 12 away games
Cowboys have scored 23+ points in four of their last six games in Townsville
Cowboys scored 76 points in their two wins over Raiders last year
Raiders leaked 40 points on the road to Manly last week
Raiders conceded four tries to Reuben Garrick last week - right centre for the Cowboys Jaxon Purdue can further expose Canberra's left edge
Jaxon Purdue has scored a try in four of his last five games when starting

Head To Head

This has been a successful matchup for the Cowboys in recent times, winning the last six meetings and the last four at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. North Queensland throttled Canberra in their two meetings in 2024, prevailing 34-16 in the nation's capital before a 42-4 blowout up north in Round 24.

North Queensland Cowboys Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
0-3	1-2	1-2

It's been a dreadful start to the season for the Cowboys and if it wasn't for Parramatta's equally poor start, they would be rock bottom on the ladder.

North Queensland were blown off the park by Manly 42-12 in their season opener, while they had no answers for the Sharks at home, losing 36-12.

Todd Payten's side were always going to lift for the Queensland derby last week against Brisbane and although they went down 26-16, there were a couple of encouraging signs to take into this clash with the Raiders.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
1-2	1-2	0-1	0-2

North Queensland Cowboys Team News

Payten has named an unchanged lineup from the team that went down to Brisbane, showing faith after their improved performance. Zac Laybutt is listed in the reserves as he continues his comeback from an ACL injury sustained in Round 5 last year.

North Queensland Cowboys Team List

1. Scott Drinkwater

2. Robert Derby

3. Jaxon Purdue

4. Viliami Vailea

5. Murray Taulagi

6. Tom Dearden

7. Jake Clifford

8. Jordan McLean

9. Reece Robson

10. Jason Taumalolo

11. John Bateman

12. Kai O’Donnell

13. Reuben Cotter

Interchange

14. Sam McIntyre

15. Jeremiah Nanai

16. Griffin Neame

17. Coen Hess

Reserves

18. Harrison Edwards

19. Zac Laybutt

20. Thomas Duffy

21. Karl Lawton

22. Thomas Mikaele

Canberra Raiders Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-1	2-1	2-1

The Raiders were excellent as they launched the season in Vegas, dismantling the Warriors 30-8 as Xavier Savage and Seb Kris scored doubles.

Canberra backed up that display with a brilliant 32-22 home victory over the Broncos, who had dropped 50 points on the Roosters the previous week.

However, Ricky Stuart's side have been guilty of Jekyll & Hyde performances over the years and that was the case last week, with the Green Machine leaking 30 first-half points against the Sea Eagles at Brookie and never recovering as they went down 40-12.

If Jamal Fogarty's kicking game isn't firing, the Raiders can look devoid of ideas in attack and that's what happened after they were wrongly denied the opening try by the video ref.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
2-1	2-1	1-0	1-1

Canberra Raiders Team News

Big boost for the Raiders as Joseph Tapine returns from suspension, pushing Trey Mooney to the bench and Corey Horsburgh to lock. Morgan Smithies will miss this game due to concussion.

Canberra Raiders Team List

1. Kaeo Weekes

2. Savelio Tamale

3. Matthew Timoko

4. Sebastian Kris

5. Xavier Savage

6. Ethan Strange

7. Jamal Fogarty

8. Josh Papali’i

9. Tom Starling

10. Joseph Tapine

11. Hudson Young

12. Matt Nicholson

13. Corey Horsburgh

Interchange

14. Owen Pattie

15. Simi Sasagi

16. Trey Mooney

17. Ata Mariota

Reserves

18. Danny Levi

19. Jed Stuart

20. Pasami Saulo

21. Albert Hopoate

22. Adam Cook

Verdict

North Queensland Cowboys v Canberra Raiders

The Cowboys are backed to win their first game of the season, picking up a seventh straight win over the Raiders.

Canberra leaked 40 points on the road last week, including four tries to their opposing right centre, so Jaxon Purdue is the pick for Anytime/First Tryscorer.

Cowboys Win

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Jaxon Purdue

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