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Newcastle Knights vs New Zealand Warriors NRL Tips - Warriors to prevail in low-scoring affair

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Fri. 18 Jul. 2025 09:49

Andrew Hendrie 18 Jul. 2025

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Newcastle Knights vs New Zealand Warriors expert predictions for Sunday's NRL Round 20 game
Kick off is at 4.05pm AEST at McDonald Jones Stadium
Knights average below 15 points per game in 2025; Warriors have won three of the last four meetings
Dom Young is scoring at almost a try per game at McDonald Jones Stadium
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bets

Newcastle Knights vs New Zealand Warriors NRL Tips

Newcastle Knights vs New Zealand Warriors, NRL Round 20 - Expert Prediction

The Warriors will be hoping to further strengthen their top four status when they head to the Hunter to face the Knights to conclude NRL Round 20 action on Sunday.

Newcastle Knights vs New Zealand Warriors, NRL Round 20 - Expert Prediction
Head To Head
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis
Newcastle Knights Team News
Newcastle Knights Team List
New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis
New Zealand Warriors Team News
New Zealand Warriors Team List

Knights vs Warriors Rd20 Cheat Sheet

It's been a terrific season for the Warriors, but their realistic ambitions of landing a premiership took a huge blow when star halfback Luke Metcalf was ruled out for the season with a knee injury. I don't expect the Warriors to seriously challenge in September and they could even miss out on the top four with the Broncos hitting some resurgent form, but I do think they'll have just enough firepower to get the job done in Newcastle.

The Knights have been a tough watch all season and their attack is basically non-existent - they average 14.8 points per game, which is comfortably the worst in the competition. Will that be enough to beat the Warriors? Highly unlikely, but I don't think this game will blow out too much and the Knights are actually very solid defensively, so I'm taking the Warriors 1-12 and Under 44.5 total points. Dominic Young remains prolific at McDonald Jones Stadium and will be the main target for Newcastle out wide.

Warriors have won three of the last four meetings between the teams
Warriors have won six of their eight games in Australia this season
Knights have lost seven of their last eight home games
Warriors are unbeaten vs teams currently outside the top eight this season
Knights have seen a 1-12 margin in four of their last five games (only miss vs Storm last week)
Four of the Warriors' last six wins have been by a 1-12 margin
Ten of the last 12 meetings between the teams have produced Under 44.5 points
Knights have seen Under 44.5 points in 13 of their 16 games this season
Dominic Young has scored 26 tries in 27 games at McDonald Jones Stadium & scored a double last week

Head To Head

The Warriors have won three of their last four games against the Knights, including a comfortable 26-12 triumph back in 8, with Jackson Ford and Adam Pompey scoring unlikely doubles.

Newcastle Knights Form Analysis

It's been a hugely frustrating season for Knights' fans - they've lost 10 of their 16 games, scored the fewest points in the NRL and are closer to the wooden spoon than the top eight.

Another loss here would almost certainly put a line through the Knights for 2025 - but even if they did manage to dig out a win, their attack simply isn't good enough to make a late charge for the finals.

There's been drama surrounding Kalyn Ponga throughout the week, and although the star fullback has committed to the club, you can't help but feel as if he'd rather be elsewhere amid views he's wasting his peak years at a club with limited upside.

Newcastle have faced the top two sides in the competition in their most-recent outings, putting up a fight in a 22-18 loss to the Raiders before fading in the second half of their 32-14 defeat to Melbourne.

Newcastle Knights Team News

Dane Gagai captains the side and remains at fullback after making a late positional change last week, meaning Fletcher Hunt starts in the centres.

Dylan Lucas is out with a foot injury, with Tyson Gamble rejoining the side on the bench.

Newcastle Knights Team List

1. Dane Gagai

2. Dominic Young

3. Fletcher Hunt

4. Bradman Best

5. Greg Marzhew

6. Jackson Hastings

7. Jack Cogger

8. Jacob Saifiti

9. Jayden Brailey

10. Leo Thompson

11. Brodie Jones

12. Kai Pearce-Paul

13. Phoenix Crossland

Interchange

14. Tyson Gamble

15. Mathew Croker

16. Tyson Frizell

17. Jermaine McEwen

Reserves

18. Thomas Cant

19. James Schiller

20. Elijah Leaumoana

21. Jack Hetherington

22. Kyle McCarthy

New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis

It's been a brilliant season for the Warriors and they are still on track for a top four finish, coming into this clash four points clear of the Broncos, who have the bye this weekend.

The Warriors have won 10 of their 15 games, losing only to the Raiders, Storm, Broncos and Panthers - they are consistently beating teams outside the top eight and their class should shine through again in this clash.

Andrew Webster's side responded strongly to suffering back-to-back defeats for the first time in 2025, along with the loss of Metcalf for the remainder of the season, easily dispatching the Tigers 34-14 at home last week.

Tanah Boyd slotted into the halves seamlessly with Chanel Harris-Tavita, but there's bigger tests to come.

New Zealand Warriors Team News

Only one change to the Warriors side that beat the Tigers, with Kurt Capewell returning from being rested after Origin - he comes into the centres for Rocco Berry, who injured his shoulder last week.

New Zealand Warriors Team List

1. Taine Tuaupiki

2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak

3. Adam Pompey

4. Kurt Capewell

5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck

6. Chanel Harris-Tavita

7. Tanah Boyd

8. James Fisher-Harris

9. Wayde Egan

10. Jackson Ford

11. Leka Halasima

12. Marata Niukore

13. Erin Clark

Interchange

14. Te Maire Martin

15. Jacob Laban

16. Demitric Vaimauga

17. Tanner Stowers-Smith

Reserves

18. Samuel Healey

20. Eddie Ieremia

21. Bunty Afoa

22. Ali Leiataua

23. Kayliss Fatialofa

Verdict

Newcastle Knights v New Zealand Warriors

The Knights will fight hard as usual, but they simply don't have the points in them to compete with most sides this year.

Backing a close win for the Warriors in a low-scoring game, with Knights winger Dominic Young to continue his incredible try-scoring form at McDonald Jones.

Under 44.5

Total Points

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Warriors 1-12

Margin

$3.10 - 2 Units

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