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Canterbury Bulldogs vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL Tips - Dogs' defence to grind out another close win

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Fri. 18 Jul. 2025 09:36

Andrew Hendrie 18 Jul. 2025

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Canterbury Bulldogs vs St George Illawarra Dragons expert predictions for Saturday's NRL Round 20 game
Kick off is at 5.30pm AEST at Accor Stadium
Bulldogs backed for fifth straight win vs Dragons in a tight & low-scoring affair
Matt Burton has scored three tries in his last three appearances vs the Red V
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bets

Canterbury Bulldogs vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL Tips

Canterbury Bulldogs vs St George Illawarra Dragons, NRL Round 20 - Expert Prediction

The Bulldogs will be aiming to stay within striking distance of the minor premiership when they welcome the Dragons to Accor Stadium in the second game on Super Saturday.

Canterbury Bulldogs vs St George Illawarra Dragons, NRL Round 20 - Expert Prediction
Head To Head
Canterbury Bulldogs Form Analysis
Canterbury Bulldogs Team News
Canterbury Bulldogs Team List
St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis
St George Illawarra Dragons Team News
St George Illawarra Dragons Team List

Bulldogs vs Dragons Rd20 Cheat Sheet

Canterbury haven't been too far from a headline since the arrival of Lachlan Galvin and coach Cameron Ciraldo has made the big call to drop Toby Sexton for this game and seemingly the remainder of the season, with the 20-year-old to start at halfback. Signing Galvin mid-season when the team was flying high at the top of the table was always a huge gamble and from the outside looking in, you can't help but feel the playing group feels disrupted. However, Ciraldo has proven himself as an outstanding young coach and he will no doubt have the support of the playing group going forward.

I think the most likely outcome for this game is the Bulldogs winning a tight one on the back of their well-renowned defence. The Dragons have made a habit of losing close games all season - they've suffered defeats five times by margins of six points or less - including by one point on three occasions, while they were upstaged by seven points last week against the Roosters. Canterbury meanwhile scored two tries in the 36th and 40th minutes last week against the Cowboys and that was ultimately enough to prevail 12-8, with not a single point scored in the second half. Matt Burton has been enjoying a standout season and I think he'll lift with a new partner in the halves.

Bulldogs have won their last four games vs Dragons
Dragons have lost four of their last five games
Dragons haven't won at Accor Stadium since 2019
Dragons have lost six of their eight away games this season
Bulldogs have seen a 1-12 margin in their last four games
Dragons have seen a 1-12 margin in seven of their last nine games
Eight of the Dragons' 10 defeats this season have been by 1-12 margins
Bulldogs have seen Under 50.5 points in their last five games
Nineteen of the last 21 meetings between the teams have produced Under 50.5 points
Matt Burton has scored three tries in his last three appearances vs Dragons & has scored in every second game since crossing in R11 this season

Head To Head

Canterbury have won the last four meetings between the teams, including a 28-20 triumph in Round 1 earlier this season in which they scored 24 of their points between the 31st and 52nd minute.

Canterbury Bulldogs Form Analysis

There's been quite a bit of negativity surrounding the Bulldogs over the last month, but at the end of the day, they've only lost to the Broncos, Panthers and Dolphins this season and remain just two points adrift of Canberra at the top of the table.

Canterbury responded strongly to suffering back-to-back defeats for the first time this season, earning a hard-fought 12-8 victory over the Cowboys that was built on the back of some brick-wall defence and a pair of tries to Jacob Preston and debutant winger Jethro Rinakama just before half-time.

Clearly the Dogs have been stagnating in attack lately, scoring just one try against Penrith, suffering an almighty collapse in the final 20 minutes against Brisbane and only managing two tries against the worst defence in the competition last week vs North Queensland.

Canterbury Bulldogs Team News

It was always going to happen, so I think it's a good move from Ciraldo to bite the bullet and name Galvin to replace Sexton at halfback - if they get the win here, the headlines will stop and everyone will begin to move on.

Stephen Crichton and Kurt Mann return from Origin after missing last week, with Crichton replacing the injured Bronson Xerri in the centres, meaning Rinakama retains his spot on the wing after an impressive debut.

Daniel Suluka-Fifita (concussion) and Sitili Tupouniua (hamstring) are a chance of forcing their way into the starting side after being names in the reseves.

Canterbury Bulldogs Team List

1. Connor Tracey

2. Jacob Kiraz

3. Enari Tuala

4. Stephen Crichton

5. Jethro Rinakama

6. Matt Burton

7. Lachlan Galvin

8. Max King

9. Reed Mahoney

10. Samuel Hughes

11. Viliame Kikau

12. Jacob Preston

13. Jaeman Salmon

Interchange

14. Kurt Mann

15. Harry Hayes

16. Josh Curran

17. Bailey Hayward

Reserves

19. Sitili Tupouniua

20. Blake Wilson

21. Daniel Suluka-Fifita

22. Kurtis Morrin

23. Toby Sexton

St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis

It's looking like a season of what could have been for the Dragons as they head into this showdown in 11th spot on the ladder.

Two wins outside of the top eight, there's still time for the Dragons to make a late charge towards the finals, but losing five games by six points or less could define their season.

Shane Flanagan's side were once more left to rue missed opportunities as they went down by seven points against the Roosters at home last week, with a 78th minute try to Victor Radley sealing the Dragons' fate.

A poor away record and lack of killer punch/leadership in the halves is a huge issue for the Dragons and something they're unlikely to overcome for the remainder of 2025.

St George Illawarra Dragons Team News

Flanagan has opted to name the same 17 players that went down against the Chooks, with Mat Feagai a chance of making his return from a long-term ankle injury after being named in the reserves.

St George Illawarra Dragons Team List

1. Clinton Gutherson

2. Tyrell Sloan

3. Moses Suli

4. Valentine Holmes

5. Sione Finau

6. Lyhkan King-Togia

7. Kyle Flanagan

8. Emre Guler

9. Damien Cook

10. David Klemmer

11. Luciano Leilua

12. Jaydn Su’A

13. Jack de Belin

Interchange

14. Jacob Liddle

15. Blake Lawrie

16. Hamish Stewart

17. Michael Molo

Reserves

18. Corey Allan

19. Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga

20. Lachlan Ilias

21. Mathew Feagai

22. Nicholas Tsougranis

Verdict

Canterbury Bulldogs v St George Illawarra Dragons

This looks like another game the Bulldogs can grind out on the back of their strong defence, so the Dogs 1-12 and Under 50.5 total points are the plays here.

Matt Burton has been near career-best form this season & can continue his solid try-scoring strike rate against the Dragons.