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Newcastle Knights vs Melbourne Storm NRL Tips - Storm to make it six straight wins

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 10 Jul 2025 14:37

Andrew Hendrie 10 Jul 2025

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Newcastle Knights vs Melbourne Storm expert predictions for Saturday's NRL Round 19 game
Kick off is at 3.00pm AEST at McDonald Jones Stadium
Storm set for six wins on the bounce; have won 12 of last 14 vs Knights
Knights to be involved in another low-scoring affair (have seen Under 46.5 in last 14/16)
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bets

Newcastle Knights vs Melbourne Storm NRL Tips

Newcastle Knights vs Melbourne Storm, NRL Round 19 - Expert Prediction

The Storm are tipped to register their sixth win on the trot in a game that goes Under 46.5 total points to launch Super Saturday action in the Hunter.

Knights vs Storm Rd19 Cheat Sheet

Newcastle Knights vs Melbourne Storm, NRL Round 19 - Expert Prediction
Head To Head
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis
Newcastle Knights Team News
Newcastle Knights Team List
Melbourne Storm Form Analysis
Melbourne Storm Team News
Melbourne Storm Team List

It hasn't always been pretty from Melbourne this season, but they have put together their longest winning streak of the year (five) coming into this clash and they should have enough firepower to outlast the Knights without Kalyn Ponga - even if Origin stars like Cameron Munster, Harry Grant, Xavier Coates and Trent Loiero are given a rest by Craig Bellamy.

Somehow, the Knights are sitting just two wins outside the top eight, but Ponga's foot injury means they'll be hard-pressed to score enough points to go toe-to-toe with the Storm here. The Knights have seen a big trend towards the unders all season, with 14 of their last 16 games producing Under 46.5 total points.

That will be one play for this game, while I also don't mind the small value on offer with PlayUp for the Storm to win at Half-Time/Full-Time, which is currently $1.68 compared to around $1.50 at most other bookies. I'm also keen to take a punt on Tyran Wishart to score a try - he's crossed in three of his last five games this season and scored three tries in his last two appearances against Newcastle.

Storm are on a five-game winning streak
Knights have lost six of their last seven home games
Storm have won 12 of their last 14 meetings vs Knights
Storm have completed the Half-Time/Full-Time double in four of their last five games
Under 46.5 points has landed in 14 of the Knights' last 16 games
Under 46.5 points has landed in the Storm's last two games
Under 46.5 points has landed in two of the last three meetings between the teams
Tyran Wishart has scored a try in three of his last five games & has three tries in his last two games vs Knights

Head To Head

While the Storm have won 12 of the last 14 encounters, it's been Newcastle who have registered the upset in two of the last three. Melbourne however did win the most-recent clash 36-28 in Round 14 at AAMI Park last year, with Wishart and Nick Meaney scoring doubles.

Newcastle Knights Form Analysis

The Knights have been a tough watch all season, but at the end of the day, they've won three of their last six games, are just two wins outside the top eight and have the third-best defence in the NRL, conceding 50 less points than first-placed Canberra.

Newcastle will have to rely on that steely goal-line defence if they are to have any chance of upsetting Melbourne and keeping their faint finals hopes alive here.

Adam O'Brien's side have picked up some notable scalps over the last couple of months, defeating the likes of the Panthers, Dolphins and Sea Eagles, while they also pushed competition leaders Canberra in a 22-18 defeat in their most-recent outing before the bye.

Newcastle Knights Team News

Fletcher Hunt comes in at fullback as the replacement for Kalyn Ponga, who is out with a foot injury. Greg Marzhew returns from an arm injury and pushes James Schiller to the reserves.

Leo Thompson is back from suspension, which sees Tyson Frizell revert to lock, Phoenix Crossland to hooker and Jayden Brailey to the bench. Thomas Cant drops out the side.

Newcastle Knights Team List

1. Fletcher Hunt

2. Dominic Young

3. Dane Gagai

4. Bradman Best

5. Greg Marzhew

6. Jackson Hastings

7. Jack Cogger

8. Jacob Saifiti

9. Phoenix Crossland

10. Leo Thompson

11. Dylan Lucas

12. Kai Pearce-Paul

13. Tyson Frizell

Interchange

14. Jayden Brailey

15. Mathew Croker

16. Jermaine McEwen

17. Brodie Jones

Reserves

18. Thomas Cant

19. James Schiller

20. Tyson Gamble

21. Jack Hetherington

22. Kyle McCarthy

Melbourne Storm Form Analysis

The Storm have surged into second spot on the ladder, overtaking the Bulldogs on the back of their current five-game winning streak.

It certainly hasn't been the most polished we've ever seen Melbourne, but they have got the job done in recent wins over the Titans, Cowboys (twice), Rabbitohs and Sharks.

However, none of those victories have come against teams currently inside the top eight, so it's still tough to gauge where the Storm are at compared to the likes of Canberra, Canterbury and Brisbane.

Melbourne ran out 26-20 winners against the Cowboys last week in a game where both teams were heavily impacted by Origin, with Nick Meaney crossing for a double.

Melbourne Storm Team News

Stefano Utoikamanu has been named to back up from Origin on the bench, but Maroons stars Cameron Munster, Harry Grant and Trent Loiero are amongst the reserves and may be given a rest. Xavier Coates hasn't been named at all.

Ryan Papenhuyzen returns after he missed last week with a calf injury, pushing Nick Meaney to the centres and Grant Anderson to the wing.

Melbourne Storm Team List

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen

2. Grant Anderson

3. Joe Chan

4. Nick Meaney

5. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown

6. Tyran Wishart

7. Jahrome Hughes

8. Tui Kamikamica

9. Bronson Garlick

10. Josh King

11. Shawn Blore

12. Eliesa Katoa

13. Nelson Asofa-Solomona

Interchange

14. Jonah Pezet

15. Stefano Utoikamanu

16. Lazarus Vaalepu

17. Ativalu Lisati

Reserves

18. Jack Howarth

19. Trent Loiero

20. Cameron Munster

21. Harry Grant

22. Kane Bradley

23. Moses Leo

24. Keagan Russell-Smith

Verdict

Newcastle Knights v Melbourne Storm

In a game that could see a lot of attacking threats sidelined, I'm backing Under 46.5 total points, with the Storm completing another HT-FT double.

Tyran Wishart is solid value to score another try against Newcastle.

Storm/Storm

Half-Time/Full-Time

$1.68 - 3 Units

Use Easyform

The Ultimate Form Guide

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Bet at Playup

Under 46.5

Total Points

$1.90 - 2 Units

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Tyran Wishart

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