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Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles NRL Round 14 Tips - A bad Knight for Newcastle fans

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Tue 03 Jun 2025 13:30

Ryan Tucker 03 Jun 2025

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Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles expert predictions for Thursday’s Round 14 NRL game
Kick off is at 7:50 PM (AEST) at McDonald Jones Stadium
Kalyn Ponga returns but Newcastle remains troubled in attack.
Manly Sea Eagles favored due to strong Run Metres and Tryscoring Efficiency.
Despite Newcastle's defensive prowess, Manly expected to exploit gaps.

Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles NRL Round 14 Tips

Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles, Round 14 2025 - Expert Prediction

Kalyn Ponga is back in the lineup but Newcastle’s attacking woes will continue as Manly are tipped to win this Thursday night matchup at McDonald Jones Stadium.

Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles, Round 14 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Newcastle Knights Team News
Newcastle Knights Team List
Manly Sea Eagles Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Manly Sea Eagles Team News
Manly Sea Eagles Team List
Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles NRL 2025 Round 14 FAQ’s

The Sea Eagles have won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these teams with another ending in a 32-all draw. While the Knights have won 2 of the last 3 against Manly at home their attack continues to falter which doesn’t fill me with enough confidence to take them to cover the +6.5 point line as the Underdog.

It is important to note that home underdogs are still covering at a 57.5% rate this season despite the statline going 0/3 last weekend. The Knights have been poor at home in 2025 with a 1-4 record straight up and ATS, largely due to their inability to convert their chances when in scoring range.

Manly are the league leaders in Run Metres and are ranked 6th in Tackles Inside 20m. Earlier this season they too had some troubles converting their chances when attacking their opponents line but have since rectified the troubles to score a try every 8.2 tackles Inside 20m, 4th best Tryscoring Efficiency in the NRL.

Expect the Sea Eagles, even with their somewhat depleted pack, to gain important metres up the middle to put them in scoring range and even with the Knights stellar defence, the tries will come.

Sea Eagles to cover, Game Total to go Under and Tolu Koula to score given Newcastle’s penchant for allowing tries to opposition centres.

Newcastle are 3-9 ATS in 2025, are 0-4 against top 8 teams and are 1-11 to the Under in all games played.
Manly are 1st in Run Metres and Possession against Newcastle ranked 17th and 15th respectively in those stats.
The Sea Eagles have won 3 of the last 5 against the Knights and have gone Under the Game Total in 5 straight games.
Manly have scored first in 3 straight games and Newcaslte have allowed at least 1 try to a centre in 3 of their last 5 games.

Head to Head

Manly have won 3 of the last 5 and 5 of the last 10 meetings between these teams with one ending in a draw. Newcastle have though won 2 of the last 3 matches that were played at McDonald Jones Stadium.

The Game Total has gone over in 5 straight games and in 7 of the last 10. The Winning Margins have been wild, they are either blowouts or single digits. 6 of the last 10 have been 1-12 margins.

Manly are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 against Newcastle.

Newcastle Knights Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	2-3	0-5

The Knights suffered their 8th loss of the season at the hands of the Dragons last Friday, going down 20-6 on the road just 6 days after putting 25 points past the defending premiers Penrith.

There was a little controversy pre-game with the team electing to rest Kalyn Ponga after Origin. Given Fletcher Sharpe’s game at fullback the week before, it felt like a good move at the time, but once again the attack stagnated despite 35 tackles Inside the Dragons 20m zone. Their lone try coming after 70 minutes of action.

Newcastle’s defence was almost copybook of the season, they allowed their opponents to march up the ground then locked down on their line, but with 46 tackles peppering the line, they were bound to break on occasion.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
3-9	1-11	1-1	3-7

Newcastle Knights Team News

Kalyn Ponga slots back into the fullback role after missing last week with the short turnaround from Origin. Fletcher Sharpe moves to five-eighth with Tyson Gamble the player to make way. Jack Cogger is the halfback though Jackson Hastings has been named in jumper 18.

Greg Marzhew is also listed in the reserves and could make a push to return to the team. Brodie Jones has been named at prop with Leo Thompson set for a stint on the sidelines with suspension. Elijah Salesa-Leaumoana is the new face on the bench.

Newcastle Knights Team List

1. Kalyn Ponga

2. James Schiller

3. Dane Gagai

4. Kyle McCarthy

5. Fletcher Hunt

6. Fletcher Sharpe

7. Jack Cogger

8. Tyson Frizell

9. Phoenix Crossland

10. Brodie Jones

11. Dylan Lucas

12. Kai Pearce-Paul

13. Mat Croker

Interchange

14. Jayden Brailey

15. Thomas Cant

16. Jermaine McEwen

17. Elijah Salesa-Leaumoana

Reserves

18. Jackson Hastings

19. Tyrone Thompson

20. Matthew Arthur

21. Wil Sullivan

22. Greg Marzhew

Manly Sea Eagles Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	3-2	0-5

Manly’s inconsistent form this season continued last weekend but thankfully for their fans, it was an up week as they trounced the Broncos 34-6 at 4 Pines Park. The Sea Eagles had lost 3 in a row at home prior to the matchup and had alternated between winning and losing for 4 straight weeks.

The team ranks 1st in the league in Run Metres and 1st in Possession pointing to them being able to take care of the ball and using their full set to gain territory. That is backed up by their low error rate ability to have the 6th highest number of Tackles Inside 20m of their opponents.

The Sea Eagles play their next two games on the road heading into the bye, then two straight at home before their final bye. To end the season 5 of 8 games are on the road.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
5-7	5-7	0-2	6-4

Manly Sea Eagles Team News

Lehi Hopoate and Clayton Faulalo continue in their spots with Tom Trbojevic and Jason Saab both still out. Tof Sipley is the starting front rower with Josh Aloiai and Siua Taukeiaho both out injured.

Lachlan Croker swaps into the starting hooker role with Jake Simpkin moving back to the bench. The return of Jake Trbojevic sees Jazz Tevaga also move to the interchange and Matt Lodge dropping to the reserves.

Manly Sea Eagles Team List

1. Lehi Hopoate

2. Clayton Faulalo

3. Tolu Koula

4. Reuben Garrick

5. Tommy Talau

6. Luke Brooks

7. Daly Cherry-Evans

8. Ethan Bullemor

9. Lachlan Croker

10. Tof Sipley

11. Haumole Olakau’atu

12. Ben Trbojevic

13. Jake Trbojevic

Interchange

14. Jake Simpkin

15. Jazz Tevaga

16. Corey Waddell

17. Nathan Brown

Reserves

18. Michael Chee Kam

19. Jake Arthur

20. Navren Willett

21. Chris Patolo

22. Matt Lodge

Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles NRL 2025 Round 14 FAQ’s

How to watch Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles NRL 2025 Round 14?

You can watch the Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles NRL 2025 Round 14 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles NRL 2025 Round 14?

To buy tickets to the Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles NRL 2025 Round 14 game check the NRL website or the official Newcastle Knights site.

Verdict

Newcastle Knights v Manly Sea Eagles

Sea Eagles to cover, Game Total to go Under and Tolu Koula to score given Newcastle’s penchant for allowing tries to opposition centres.

Manly -6.5

Line

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