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Melbourne Storm vs North QLD Cowboys NRL Round 14 Tips - Storm break the trend against the Cows

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Tue 03 Jun 2025 16:41

Jeremy Darke 03 Jun 2025

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Melbourne Storm vs North QLD Cowboys expert predictions for Friday’s Round 14 NRL game
Kick off is at 6:00 PM (AEST) at AAMI Park
Storm's form inconsistent but strong at home, averaging 43 PPG.
North QLD Cowboys struggle defensively, ranked 16th in points allowed.

Jez's Melbourne Storm vs North QLD Cowboys NRL Round 14 Tips

Melbourne Storm vs North QLD Cowboys, Round 14 2025 - Expert Prediction

The Storm will steady the ship with their first consecutive wins since Rounds 5 and 6, beating North Queensland by two converted tries.

Melbourne Storm vs North QLD Cowboys, Round 14 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Melbourne Storm Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Melbourne Storm Team News
Melbourne Storm Team List
North QLD Cowboys Form Analysis & Betting Trends
North QLD Cowboys Team News
North QLD Cowboys Team List
Melbourne Storm vs North QLD Cowboys NRL 2025 Round 14 FAQ’s

I want to say Melbourne run away with this one and cover the 14.5 points as the favourite, BUT the Storm just haven’t been convincing enough this season and the Cowboys do have some points in them when they get going.

Both teams have been explosive in attack and mediocre in defence in stages of their respective matches which opens this contest up for points. I don’t see Melbourne dropping this one at home, but I prefer to tease the margin down to just under two converted tries for safety (have a gut feeling).

The Cowboys give up the most linebreaks of any team in the comp and Jahrome Hughes is often the creator and the support player so I like the Storm halfback as a good odds anytime try scorer.

North Queensland are 1-4 against top 8 teams this season.
5 of the last 6 matches between the Storm and Cowboys has gone over the game total.
North Queensland have allowed their opponents an average of 28 points per game in their last 4 matches.
Melbourne Storm are ranked 2nd in Linebreaks vs North QLD Cowboys's defence ranked 17th
The Cowboys have given up 4 tries in 4 games to opposition halves.

Head to Head

North Queensland have won the last 3 matches against Melbourne over the last 3 seasons. Important to not is that all three matches were played in Townsville with the previous 5 contests between these two clubs being played in Queensland.

Melbourne had won the 12 matches prior to the Cowboys run.

Melbourne Storm Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	2-3	2-3

Melbourne got a sluggish 28-16 victory over the Gold Coast Titans without their Origin stars Harry Grant and Xavier Coates in the side.

The win keeps the Storm in the top four, but Craig Bellamy certainly expressed his concerns during the week with the Storm not playing the consistent footy that he desires. The Storm have lost every second match over the last 7 matches which is not the perfect footy that is demanded in Melbourne.

The Storm are a different side at home though, winning all 5 matches played at AAMI Park this season with the latest a 64-0 drubbing of the Tigers. Melbourne’s attack catches a light on their home turf, averaging 43 points per game with a mean of 30 points.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
5-6	7-4	3-3	4-1

Melbourne Storm Team News

Xavier Coates and Harry Grant return with Sua Fa’alogo dropping out with Bronson Garlick moving to the bench.

Melbourne Storm Team List

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen

2. Grant Anderson

3. Jack Howarth

4. Nick Meaney

5. Xavier Coates

6. Cameron Munster

7. Jahrome Hughes

8. Stefano Utoikamanu

9. Harry Grant

10. Josh King

11. Shawn Blore

12. Eli Katoa

13. Trent Loiero

Interchange

14. Tyran Wishart

15. Bronson Garlick

16. Tui Kamikamica

17. Nelson Asofa-Solomona

Reserves

18. Ativalu Lisati

19. Sua Fa'alogo

20. Alec MacDonald

21. Joe Chan

22. Kane Bradley

North QLD Cowboys Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	2-3	4-1

North Queensland got their first win in 4 matches, breaking a three-game losing streak by holding on against the Tigers 32-28.

The Cowboys defence has been one of the worst in the NRL, leaking an average of 26.2 points per game (16th) this season, with that figure moving up to 28 points in their last 4 matches.

North Queensland are being broken up all over the field, giving up 6.3 linebreaks per game, the most of any team in the NRL. Due to that figure, they are also ranked 12th in opposition run metres (1471.8/G). Their saving grace is that they have been able to play the majority of the game in their opposition's half, ranked 3rd in territory in the NRL.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
6-5	6-5	4-2	1-3

North QLD Cowboys Team News

Todd Payten has elected to name an unchanged 17.

North QLD Cowboys Team List

1. Scott Drinkwater

2. Robert Derby

3. Zac Laybutt

4. Viliami Vailea

5. Jaxson Paulo

6. Jaxon Purdue

7. Tom Dearden

8. Jordan McLean

9. Reece Robson

10. Sam McIntyre

11. John Bateman

12. Jeremiah Nanai

13. Reuben Cotter

Interchange

14. Harrison Edwards

15. Kai O’Donnell

16. Griffin Neame

17. Coen Hess

Reserves

18. Jake Clifford

19. Karl Lawton

20. Thomas Mikaele

21. Braidon Burns

22. Kaiden Lahrs

Melbourne Storm vs North QLD Cowboys NRL 2025 Round 14 FAQ’s

How to watch Melbourne Storm vs North QLD Cowboys NRL 2025 Round 14?

You can watch the Melbourne Storm vs North QLD Cowboys NRL 2025 Round 14 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne Storm vs North QLD Cowboys NRL 2025 Round 14?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne Storm vs North QLD Cowboys NRL 2025 Round 14 game check the NRL website or the official Melbourne Storm site.

Verdict

Melbourne Storm v North QLD Cowboys

Tease the line down to 11.5 points in this one for a safer bet, back a lot of points by both teams going over the game total with Jahrome Hughes a try scorer.

Melbourne -11.5

Alternative Margin

$1.65 - 3 Units

The GOAT.

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Bet at betr

Over 50.5

Game Total

$1.91 - 2 Units

Use Easyform

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Bet at Playup

Jahrome Hughes

Anytime Tryscorer

$3.25 - 1 Unit

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