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Canberra Raiders vs South Sydney Rabbitohs NRL Tips - Raiders to secure another 1-12 victory

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 05 Jun 2025 13:31

Andrew Hendrie 05 Jun 2025

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Canberra Raiders vs South Sydney Rabbitohs expert predictions for Sunday's NRL Round 14 game
Kick off is at 2.00pm AEST at GIO Stadium
Raiders backed for another tight win, with 16 of their last 20 coming by a 1-12 margin
Josh Papalii good value for a try as he celebrates becoming the most capped Raiders of all time
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bets

Canberra Raiders vs South Sydney Rabbitohs, NRL Round 14 - Expert Prediction

Another thrilling showdown in the nation's capital awaits as the high-flying Raiders square off against a Rabbitohs side who are starting to see their big guns return. It promises to be cracking contest at GIO Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

Canberra Raiders vs South Sydney Rabbitohs, NRL Round 14 - Expert Prediction
Head To Head
Canberra Raiders Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Canberra Raiders Team News
Canberra Raiders Team List
South Sydney Rabbitohs Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
South Sydney Rabbitohs Team News
South Sydney Rabbitohs Team List

Canberra are a well-oiled Green Machine - they dig in, work for each other and buy into Ricky Stuart's philosophy. Those efforts have been rewarded with second spot on the ladder and the most wins in the competition heading into Round 14. Souths meanwhile continue to plug away under Wayne Bennett, and with their superstar players back on deck, cementing a place in the top eight looks realistic over the coming month.

I have one rule when it comes to the Raiders and it's if you're backing them to win, it's got to be by a 1-12 margin. Indeed, 16 of Canberra's last 20 wins have come inside this margin - including a pulsating 26-24 comeback over the Roosters last week. I'm also liking Under 48.5 total points - Souths have consistently been involved in low-scoring games this season and I'm prepared to say last week's 36-30 defeat to the Warriors was an outlier. Have to always back Alex Johnston at even money when it comes to Anytime Tryscorers, while a small stake should be reserved for Josh Papalii, who has been elevated to the starting lineup as he celebrates breaking the record for most games for the Raiders with 319.

Raiders have won eight of their last nine games
Sixteen of the Raiders' last 20 wins have been by a 1-12 margin
Rabbitohs have seen Under 48.5 points in nine of their last 10 games
Seven of the last nine meetings have seen Under 48.5 points
Alex Johnston has scored five tries in his last four games & has crossed for nine in his last 12 games vs Raiders
Josh Papalii has scored 65 tries in 318 games, which is an excellent strike rate for a prop - he's celebrating a record-breaking 319th game for the Raiders, gets a start & will be looking to crash over from close range

Head To Head

The Raiders have won five of their last six meetings with Souths and five of the last seven in Canberra. The Bunnies only have two wins in Canberra since 2014.

Canberra Raiders Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-1	4-1	3-2

Arguably the form team in the competition coming into Round 14, the Raiders have tasted victory in eight of their last nine games - and despite sitting in second behind the Bulldogs, they've won more games than any other side in the competition.

Ricky Stuart has done an outstanding job with this young and relatively inexperienced side - Kaeo Weekes is one of the most electric players in the game, Ethan Strange and Jamal Fogarty have developed into a potent halves pairing and the entire forward pack continues to impress - including Hudson Young, who is laying a claim to be one of the most prolific try-scoring second-rowers in recent memory, scoring 10 in his last 10 games.

Canberra once again registered a come-from-behind victory in 2025 last week against the Roosters, with Weekes playing a starring role at fullback as he sliced open the Chooks' defence with seven minutes remaining to set up Strange for a try under the posts.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
10-3	8-5	7-2	3-1

Canberra Raiders Team News

Josh Papalii comes into the starting side as he breaks Jarrod Croker's record for most Raiders' games with 319.

Jamal Fogarty also returns from a groin issue that saw him miss out on the win last week over the Roosters.

Canberra Raiders Team List

1. Kaeo Weekes

2. Savelio Tamale

3. Matthew Timoko

4. Sebastian Kris

5. Xavier Savage

6. Ethan Strange

7. Jamal Fogarty

8. Josh Papali’i

9. Tom Starling

10. Joseph Tapine

11. Hudson Young

12. Zac Hosking

13. Corey Horsburgh

Interchange

14. Owen Pattie

15. Simi Sasagi

16. Morgan Smithies

17. Ata Mariota

Reserves

18. Noah Martin

19. Trey Mooney

20. Danny Levi

21. Jed Stuart

22. Ethan Sanders

South Sydney Rabbitohs Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	3-2	1-4

Considering the injury difficulties Souths have been forced to contend with, Wayne Bennett would be relatively happy with their ninth spot on the ladder, just four points off the Storm in fourth.

The cavalry is starting to return, especially in the backs, with Jack Wighton and Cody Walker recovering from injuries and selected in the side this week, joining the likes of Latrell Mitchell and Alex Johnston.

The Rabbitohs went on a four-game losing run in the height of their growing casualty ward, but responded with back-to-back victories over the Broncos and Tigers before last week's high-scoring 36-30 defeat to the Warriors, ultimately running out of time as they attempted a comeback.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
7-5	1-11	6-3	0-3

South Sydney Rabbitohs Team News

As mentioned, Wighton and Walker return for the Bunnies this week, with Bayleigh Bentley-Hape and Jye Gray making way. Liam Le Blanc joins the bench.

South Sydney Rabbitohs Team List

1. Latrell Mitchell

2. Alex Johnston

3. Jack Wighton

4. Campbell Graham

5. Isaiah Tass

6. Cody Walker

7. Jamie Humphreys

8. Jai Arrow

9. Siliva Havili

10. Keaon Koloamatangi

11. Euan Aitken

12. Tallis Duncan

13. Lachlan Hubner

Interchange

14. Jayden Sullivan

15. Sean Keppie

16. Liam Le Blanc

17. Tevita Tatola

Reserves

18. Davvy Moale

19. Jye Gray

20. Tyrone Munro

21. Thomas Fletcher

22. Jacob Host

Verdict

Canberra Raiders v South Sydney Rabbitohs

When the Raiders win, it's usually a close game, with 80% of their last 20 victories coming within a 1-12 margin.

Backing Canberra in a low-scoring game, with Johnston and Papalii tipped as Anytime Tryscorers.

Under 48.5

Total Points

$1.83 - 3 Units

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Raiders 1-12

Margin

$3.20 - 2 Units

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Alex Johnston

Anytime Tryscorer

$1.96 - 1 Unit

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Josh Papalii

Anytime Tryscorer

$8.00 - 1 Unit

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