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New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos NRL Tips - Broncos to cover across the ditch

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 17 Apr 2025 12:21

Andrew Hendrie 17 Apr 2025

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New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos expert predictions for Saturday's NRL Round 7 game
Kick off is at 5.30pm AEST at Go Media Stadium
Broncos backed to cover a -7.5 line for their fifth win of the season
Jesse Arthars can also continue his blistering try-scoring form
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bets

New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos NRL Tips

New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos, NRL Round 7 2025 - Expert Prediction

Both the Warriors and Broncos will be aiming to bounce back from last-start defeats when they square off at Go Media Stadium on Saturday.

New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos, NRL Round 7 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head To Head
New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
New Zealand Warriors Team News
New Zealand Warriors Team List
Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Brisbane Broncos Team News
Brisbane Broncos Team List

The Broncos suffered a shock loss at home against the Roosters, while the Warriors were absolutely battered at the hands of the Storm, going down 36-0 after just 31 minutes and never recovering.

I'm backing Brisbane to return to the winners circle across the ditch. Michael Maguire will demand an immediate response after signs of complacency against a Roosters side they dropped 50 points on back in Round 1. The Broncos have won three of their last four games in New Zealand and can take advantage of a Warriors side who are missing three key players through injury.

The Broncos are tipped to cover a -7.5 line, while I'm also liking Over 47.5 total points, which has landed in the last three meetings between the teams and in three of the Warriors' last four outings. Jesse Arthars is the NRL's leading try scorer for the season, with the Broncos winger scoring at least one try in six of his last seven matches - he's a strong chance for another meat pie here.

Broncos have covered a -7.5 line in all four of their wins this season
Warriors' last four defeats have been by 8+ points
Over 47.5 points has landed in three of the Warriors' last four games
Over 47.5 points has landed in the last three meetings between the teams
Jesse Arthars has scored eight tries in 2025 & crossed for at least one try in six of his last seven games

Head To Head

The Warriors won the only clash between the teams in 2024 by a 32-16 score. The Broncos were victorious in both meetings in 2023 as they went on to make the Grand Final that year.

New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	3-2	3-2

It's been a solid start to the season for the Warriors, but their first and last matches of the year so far have left a lot to be desired.

The Warriors launched the season poorly in Vegas with a disappointing 30-8 defeat to the Raiders before bouncing back and putting together a three-game winning streak, toppling the Sea Eagles, Roosters and Tigers.

However, the Warriors were no match for Melbourne last week, suffering their 17th consecutive defeat against Craig Bellamy's troops in emphatic fashion, copping a 42-14 hiding.

Andrew Webster's side will be hoping a return to Go Media Stadium will spark a change of fortunes, with the Warriors 2-0 in Auckland so far in 2025.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
3-2	3-2	2-0	1-2

New Zealand Warriors Team News

Big loss for the Warriors, with James Fisher-Harris sidelined with a pectoral injury, while Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad has entered concussion protocols and Rocco Berry is serving a one-game suspension.

Taine Tuaupiki moves to fullback, Ed Kosi comes onto the wing and Kurt Capewell shifts to centre. Jackson Ford moves into the starting front row, with Jacob Laban the new name on the bench.

New Zealand Warriors Team List

1. Taine Tuaupiki

2. Edward Kosi

3. Kurt Capewell

4. Ali Leiataua

5. Adam Pompey

6. Chanel Harris-Tavita

7. Luke Metcalf

8. Jackson Ford

9. Wayde Egan

10. Mitchell Barnett

11. Leka Halasima

12. Marata Niukore

13. Erin Clark

Interchange

14. Bunty Afoa

15. Jacob Laban

16. Demitric Vaimauga

17. Te Maire Martin

Reserves

18. Tanah Boyd

20. Tanner Stowers-Smith

21. Samuel Healey

22. Freddy Lussick

23. Morgan Harper

Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	1-4	2-3

The Broncos have won four of their six games to start the season, but apart from a 50-14 crushing of the Roosters in Round 1, they haven't been entirely convincing.

Brisbane followed that up with a shock loss to the Raiders in the nation's capital before bouncing back with victories over out-of-form Cowboys and Dolphins sides, while they also took advantage of a depleted Tigers outfit at home.

Expected to double down on their opening round pummelling of the Roosters last week, the Broncos were flat and outmuscled in all areas as they went down 26-16.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
2-4	3-3	2-2	2-0

Brisbane Broncos Team News

Jack Gosiewski is out for the next two months after suffering a broken arm at training, with Jordan Riki coming back into the side after serving a one-match suspension.

Tyson Smoothy replaces Martin Taupau on the bench.

Brisbane Broncos Team List

1. Reece Walsh

2. Selwyn Cobbo

3. Kotoni Staggs

4. Gehamat Shibasaki

5. Jesse Arthars

6. Ben Hunt

7. Adam Reynolds

8. Patrick Carrigan

9. Cory Paix

10. Payne Haas

11. Jaiyden Hunt

12. Jordan Riki

13. Kobe Hetherington

Interchange

14. Billy Walters

15. Corey Jensen

16. Xavier Willison

17. Tyson Smoothy

Reserves

18. Deine Mariner

19. Martin Taupau

20. Jock Madden

21. Benjamin Te Kura

22. Blake Mozer

Verdict

New Zealand Warriors v Brisbane Broncos

The Broncos are backed to cover a -7.5 line in a game that produces Over 47.5 total points.

Jesse Arthars can continue his red-hot tryscoring form by crossing for a ninth meat pie of the season.

Broncos -7.5

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