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Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors NRL Tips - Broncos to make it three wins on the trot

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 26 Jun 2025 14:24

Andrew Hendrie 26 Jun 2025

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Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors expert predictions for Saturday's NRL Round 17 game
Kick off is at 3.00pm AEST at Suncorp Stadium
Broncos' attack to fire as they chase third straight win
Josiah Karapani backed for another meat pie after scoring two doubles over the last fortnight
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bets

Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors NRL Tips

Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors, NRL Round 17 - Expert Prediction

The Broncos have rediscovered their best footy over the last fortnight and they have a great chance to secure a top four scalp against a Warriors side that are coming off a confidence-sapping loss last week.

Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors, NRL Round 17 - Expert Prediction
Head To Head
Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Brisbane Broncos Team News
Brisbane Broncos Team List
New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
New Zealand Warriors Team News
New Zealand Warriors Team List

For all the criticism Brisbane have copped this year (rightly so too), they really aren't travelling too bad - they've taken a maximum six points over the last three weeks to surge up to fifth spot on the ladder, while they've also crushed the Bulldogs this season, dropping 42 points on the competition leaders. I can think of worse seasons.

The Broncos' upturn in form has coincided with the return of Reece Walsh, with the electric fullback reigniting his side's attack, along with Ezra Mam. Brisbane have scored 78 points in their last two wins at Suncorp and I'm backing another points-scoring blitz by the hosts here after they recovered from a 16-point deficit to beat Cronulla last week.

Broncos vs Warriors Cheat Sheet Rd 17

I've been trying to fade the Warriors all season without much success, but that skepticism was finally rewarded in their disappointing defeat to a second-string Panthers side at home last week. The Warriors have admittedly enjoyed success on the road and at Suncorp this season, but the Broncos at their best are simply on another level for me. Rookie winger Josiah Karapani has scored four tries in two games since coming into first grade this season and is tipped to cross again to launch Super Saturday.

Broncos have won three of their last four home games
Warriors haven't beaten Broncos at Suncorp since 2018
Warriors are 3-4 vs top eight teams this season
Broncos have scored 34, 44, 26, 42, 16, 46 & 26 points in their home games this season
Broncos have covered a -4.5 line in all seven of their wins this season
Warriors have leaked 28+ points in two of their last three games
Josiah Karapani has scored four tries in his last two games

Head To Head

These two teams have split their last four meetings at two wins apiece, but it's the Warriors who have prevailed in the last two - including a 20-18 golden point triumph back in Round 7, with Luke Metcalf kicking the winning penalty goal.

Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	2-3	3-2

It's been a wildly inconsistent year for the Broncos to date, but perhaps they're starting to steady the ship and are primed for a big end to the regular season?

Brisbane have won their last two games coming into this encounter, crushing the Titans 44-14 before coming back from 28-12 down to overcome the Sharks 34-28 in a thriller last week.

With the bye sandwiched between, the Broncos have charged up to fifth spot on the ladder - and another victory here would close the gap to the Warriors in fourth to four points.

Payne Haas is once again proving unstoppable through the middle, making 199 metres off 21 runs against the Sharks, while Reese Walsh continues to impress since his return from injury.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
5-9	7-7	3-5	4-2

Brisbane Broncos Team News

Michael Maguire has opted to stick with the same 17 players that took care of Cronulla, with Selwyn Cobbo again listed among the reserves.

Brisbane Broncos Team List

1. Reece Walsh

2. Josiah Karapani

3. Kotoni Staggs

4. Gehamat Shibasaki

5. Jesse Arthars

6. Ezra Mam

7. Adam Reynolds

8. Corey Jensen

9. Cory Paix

10. Payne Haas

11. Brendan Piakura

12. Jordan Riki

13. Patrick Carrigan

Interchange

14. Billy Walters

15. Kobe Hetherington

16. Xavier Willison

17. Jack Gosiewski

Reserves

18. Tyson Smoothy

19. Selwyn Cobbo

20. Deine Mariner

21. Jaiyden Hunt

22. Ben Talty

New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	3-2	3-2

After a brilliant start to the season, the Warriors come into this clash having lost two of their last four games, with question marks starting to appear in regards to their premiership chances.

The Warriors went down to Canberra for the second time this season before back-to-back victories over the Rabbitohs and Sharks, with the latter (a 40-10 battering at Sharks Stadium) serving as arguably their best performance of the year.

However, the Warriors couldn't back that win up, suffering a demoralising 28-18 loss to an understrength Panthers outfit at Go Media Stadium last week.

Andrew Webster's side are still nestled comfortably inside the top four, but another loss here would see the pressure start to mount.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
9-5	7-7	7-2	3-2

New Zealand Warriors Team News

Ed Kosi comes onto the wing in place of the injured Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, while Rocco Berry is back from a hamstring injury in the centres.

Kurt Capewell returns from a rest last week, with Leka Halasima reverting to the bench and Tanner Stowers-Smith dropping out.

New Zealand Warriors Team List

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad

2. Edward Kosi

3. Adam Pompey

4. Rocco Berry

5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck

6. Chanel Harris-Tavita

7. Luke Metcalf

8. James Fisher-Harris

9. Wayde Egan

10. Marata Niukore

11. Kurt Capewell

12. Jacob Laban

13. Erin Clark

Interchange

14. Te Maire Martin

15. Jackson Ford

16. Demitric Vaimauga

17. Leka Halasima

Reserves

18. Tanner Stowers-Smith

20. Tanah Boyd

21. Samuel Healey

22. Bunty Afoa

23. Taine Tuaupiki

Verdict

Brisbane Broncos v New Zealand Warriors

The Broncos have piled on the points in their last two wins and have generally been strong in attack all season at Suncorp - backing the hosts to cover a small -4.5 line and exceed Over 26.5 team points here, with Josiah Karapani crossing for his fifth try in three games.

Broncos -4.5

Line

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Josiah Karapani

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