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Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders NRL Round 17 Tips - Canberra 1-12 is the play

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Fri 27 Jun 2025 07:50

Ryan Tucker 27 Jun 2025

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Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders expert predictions for Friday’s Round 17 NRL game
Kick off is at 8:00 PM (AEST) at McDonald Jones Stadium
Raiders expected to win 1-12, with a strong away record.
Key injuries for Knights; Fletcher Sharpe out, Jackson Hastings steps in.
Betting trends suggest game total under point limit; Zac Hosking likely to score for Raiders.

Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders NRL Round 17 Tips

Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders, Round 17 2025 - Expert Prediction

Another grind out victory is expected for the Raiders on the road in this matchup on Friday night.

Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders, Round 17 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Newcastle Knights Team News
Newcastle Knights Team List
Canberra Raiders Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Canberra Raiders Team News
Canberra Raiders Team List
Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders NRL 2025 Round 17 FAQ’s

Canberra have the 2nd best away record this season (6-2), they are 6-2 against bottom 9 teams and a 4-0 straight up as the away favourite. Newcastle have historically played well against Canberra and even own the H2H matchup over the last 10 games (6-4).

Knights vs Raiders Rd 17 Cheat Sheet

But with Fletcher Sharpe out of the side they lose the dynamic ball running half that has contributed to their scoring, as small as it is. They are still expected to defend well and keep the game within reach but a Canberra 1-12 margin is the most likely outcome.

The Raiders are 5th in the NRL in both Tackles Inside 20m and Possession. The Knights are good at defending their line but allow teams to get into scoring range far too easily this season. Canberra will find a way to capitalise by building pressure and catching the Knights out around the edges.

Take Canberra to win 1-12, the game total to go Under and Zac Hosking to pick up a try on the right edge for the Raiders.

Canberra have won 5 of 6 road games this season by 1-12 pts.
7 of the last 10 head to head matchups have gone Under 44.5 pts.
Newcastle are 13-2 to the Under this season with 3 of their last 5 games finishing with 1-12 margins.
Knights allow most opposition tries down their left edge and have given up 6 tries to forwards in their last 4 games.

Head to Head

Newcastle hold a 6-4 advantage in regular season matchups since the start of the 2019 season. They have also won the lone finals match between the teams during that span, a 30-28 golden point win in 2023.

The Under has hit in 7 of the last 10 regular season games while the Winning Margin has also stayed 1-12 in 7 of 10.

The Knights are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games.

Newcastle Knights Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	4-1	1-4

Somehow the Knights just pick up a win here and there to keep themselves alive throughout the season. They are now 6-9 and sitting 13th but they have only had the 1 bye so far. Brisbane have 7 wins and are sitting in 5th thanks to their 2 byes (and points diff).

Newcastle took care of business on the road in Perth last weekend against a high flying Dolphins outfit. They strangled the attack with their lockdown defence, allowing just 20 pts to a team that was averaging 52 per game over their previous 3 matches.

The Knights rank 2nd overall in Points Conceded, allowing just 18.8 per game which drops down to 16 per game over their last 5 matchups. Unfortunately for Knights fans they are 1-4 vs current Top 8 teams this season.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
6-9	2-13	3-2	3-7

Newcastle Knights Team News

Fletcher Sharpe will miss a chunk of time with a ruptured spleen and lacerated kidney sustained in the win over the Dolphins. Jackson Hastings has been called into the five-eighth role to replace him.

James Schiller has been named on the wing but Greg Marzhew will be given until right up to match time to prove his fitness. Jacob Saifiti returns, pushing Mat Croker to the bench.

Newcastle Knights Team List

1. Kalyn Ponga

2. Dom Young

3. Dane Gagai

4. Bradman Best

5. James Schiller

6. Jackson Hastings

7. Jack Cogger

8. Jacob Saifiti

9. Jayden Brailey

10. Tyson Frizell

11. Dylan Lucas

12. Kai Pearce-Paul

13. Phoenix Crossland

Interchange

14. Brodie Jones

15. Thomas Cant

16. Jermaine McEwen

17. Mat Croker

Reserves

18. Elijah Salesa-Leaumoana

19. Tyson Gamble

20. Fletcher Hunt

21. Greg Marzhew

22. Jack Hetherington

Canberra Raiders Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
5-0	4-1	3-2

Canberra are riding another wave of momentum with 5 straight wins heading into this matchup. It equals their longest win streak this season (rds 5-9) and also since the start of the 2019 season. They have achieved 5 straight wins on 6 occasions but have been unable to hit that elusive 6th win.

The Raiders almost surrendered a 16-0 halftime lead over the Tigers last weekend, eventually winning the game 16-12 fending off a Tigers attack that had 65% of Territory in the second half.

Canberra missed 38 tackles in the game, 25 of those in the 2nd half. It is a worrying trend given they have had 20+ misses in 6 second halves this season. The win over Wests was the only victory this season where Canberra have failed to cover the line.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
11-4	9-6	8-2	4-1

Canberra Raiders Team News

Hudson Young has been rested with Simi Sasagi promoted to the edge backrow as cover. Noah Martin is elevated to the interchange.

Canberra Raiders Team List

1. Kaeo Weekes

2. Jed Stuart

3. Matthew Timoko

4. Seb Kris

5. Xavier Savage

6. Ethan Strange

7. Jamal Fogarty

8. Josh Papalii

9. Tom Starling

10. Joe Tapine

11. Simi Sasagi

12. Zac Hosking

13. Corey Horsburgh

Interchange

14. Owen Pattie

15. Noah Martin

16. Morgan Smithies

17. Ata Mariota

Reserves

18. Trey Mooney

19. Pasami Saulo

20. Chevy Stewart

21. Danny Levi

22. Ethan Sanders

Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders NRL 2025 Round 17 FAQ’s

How to watch Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders NRL 2025 Round 17?

You can watch the Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders NRL 2025 Round 17 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders NRL 2025 Round 17?

To buy tickets to the Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders NRL 2025 Round 17 game check the NRL website or the official Newcastle Knights site.

Verdict

Newcastle Knights v Canberra Raiders

Take Canberra to win 1-12, the game total to go Under and Zac Hosking to pick up a try on the right edge for the Raiders.

Canberra 1-12

Winning Margin

$3.25 - 3 Units

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