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Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans Round 13 AFL Tips - Tiger Army set to push for upset

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Thu 05 Jun 2025 13:41

Ryan Tucker 05 Jun 2025

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Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 13 AFL game
The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 1:20 PM (AEST)
Tigers have a recent winning record against the Swans.
Best value tip of the weekend is Tigers Moneyline!
Prestia's performance could be key for the Tigers.

Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans Round 13 AFL Tips

Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans, Round 13 2025 - Expert Prediction

Who do you pick in this one? A Swans team down on confidence and form or a plucky Tigers outfit who don’t have the legs to finish out games but hold a recent winning record over their opponents?

We will need to pull out all of our handicapping ability to figure out an edge in this game. First up - the predictive modelling has the Swans winning by 12 points and hanging right around the total of 162.5 pts. Statistically both teams are hovering around the bottom in most measures, but they are both top 5 in Rebound 50’s.

Richmond are better att covering off their opponents fast ball movement out of their backline which could negate the advantage Sydney would otherwise have there while the Swans have been much more dominant around stoppages both in attack and defence.

Despite performing well at stoppages with hitouts and clearances the Swans are one of the worst teams to generate scoring from that advantage. If the Tigers can just increase their presence there slightly and last the full 4 quarters they can win this game outright.

Take a chance on the Tigers to win this one outright at home which they have done on two straight occasions. The Swans have lost 8 of their last 10 at the ground including 2 Grand Finals, averaging just 76 pts per game. Take their team total Under. Dion Prestia had 31 in his return last week, take his ladders of 25+ and 30+ in hope he repeats the effort.

Richmond led for most of the game against GWS last week and have won 2 in a row vs Sydney.
The Swans have lost 8 of their last 10 at the MCG including 2 Grand Finals, they average just 76 pts per game at the ground during that span.
Both teams are top 5 in Rebound 50’s but Richmond are also 2nd best in the league at restricting opponents from Rebounding.
Dion Prestia had 31 disposals in his return to the AFL last weekend.

Head to Head

The Tigers have won two in a row against Sydney and 4 of the last 7 matchups between the two teams. They are also 5-2 ATS over the same span of games.

The Over has hit in 4 of 7 games since the start of 2019 but the game total went Under in the lone matchup last season.

The winning margin has been 1-39 in 5 of 7 matches which includes all of the Tigers victories.

Richmond Tigers Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-4	3-2	0-5

Richmond allowed a 28 point lead over the Giants to slip away in the final term, going down by 3 points in a tight contest last weekend. On paper the Tigers had no right to be in the game but were dominant for most of the night with the mix of young and old doing their job.

As has been the case in many games this season, they just ran out of legs in the fourth quarter as their opponents came storming home. They will no doubt use it as a learning experience and continue to improve the little things along the way.

The Tigers have been strong this season at taking Intercept Marks and Rebounding from Defensive 50 where they rank top 5 in the AFL in both metrics.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
7-5	3-9	3-5	0-4

Richmond Tigers Team News

No major injury news for the Tigers, Noah Balta will be able to lineup with this being a scheduled day game.

Richmond Tigers Team List

B: B.Miller, N.Balta, N.Broad

HB: S.Banks, T.Brown, N.Vlastuin

C: H.Ralphsmith, D.Prestia, L.Trainor

HF: J.Ross, S.Campbell, S.Green

F: R.Mansell, T.Lynch, J.Faull

FOLL: T.Nankervis - C, T.Taranto, J.Hopper

I/C: K.Smith, K.McIntosh, K.McAuliffe, T.Sonsie, T.Sims

EMG: M.Lefau, J.Trezise, J.Clarke

In: - N.Balta

Out: - C.Gray (Omitted)

Sydney Swans Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	2-3	1-4

What is there to be said about the Swans this season? Yes they have struggled with injury but only once have they scored triple digits and are averaging just 69.4 pts per game over their last 5.

In comparison they averaged 97.5 pts per game last season with 7 of 11 games before the month of June being triple digit totals. Now as well as not being able to score, they stink at handballing, can’t hold on to the ball, couldn’t take a Mark Inside 50 to save their lives and their accuracy in the front of the sticks is essentially a lucky dip.

The only thing they have going for them is their rebound attack from the back half which they do at an elite level, mostly thanks to Nick Blakey. Sydney need to find a way to recover their scoring form and work out a strategy for their midfield to find some sort of ascendancy in games.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
5-7	4-8	3-6	1-2

Sydney Swans Team News

Callum Mills will return from suspension while Sam Wicks and Aaron Francis will both need to pass fitness tests to be eligible for selection. Joel Amartey, Tom Papley and Errol Gulden could all return in Round 15.

Sydney Swans Team List

B: D.Rampe, T.McCartin, L.Melican

HB: J.Lloyd, N.Blakey, S.Wicks

C: J.Jordon, Ch.Warner, C.Mills - C

HF: B.Campbell, W.Hayward, J.McInerney

F: A.Francis, H.McLean, Co.Warner

FOLL: B.Grundy, I.Heeney, J.Rowbottom

I/C: H.Cunningham, R.Bice, T.Hanily, T.Adams, A.Sheldrick

EMG: O.Florent, C.Mitchell, J.Buller

In: - S.Wicks, C.Mills, A.Francis, H.Cunningham, T.Hanily

Out: - M.Roberts (Illness), C.Mitchell (Omitted), J.Hamling (Omitted), C.Cleary (Omitted), P.Ladhams (Injured)

Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans AFL 2025 Round 13 FAQ’s

How to watch Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans AFL 2025 Round 13?

You can watch the Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans AFL 2025 Round 13 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.