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Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions AFL Tips - Crows soar in two versus three battle

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Thu. 05 Jun. 2025 13:40

Jeremy Darke 05 Jun. 2025

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Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions expert predictions for Friday’s Round 13 AFL game
The game will be played at Adelaide Oval, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEST)
Crows' defence restricts opponents' quality inside 50s; key issue for Lions to score.
Darcy Fogarty tipped to score 2+ goals; Crows likely to exceed 82.5 points.

Jez's Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions AFL Tips

Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions, Round 13 2025 - Expert Prediction

All the data is pointing to a comfortable win for Adelaide and I have to agree, predicting the third-placed Crows to cover the 8.5 points as the favorite against the second-placed Lions and do it with some ease.

Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions, Round 13 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Adelaide Crows Team News
Adelaide Crows Team List
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Brisbane Lions Team News
Brisbane Lions Team List
Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 13 FAQ’s

Noone expected Adelaide to be sitting where they are after 12 games this season and if I am being honest, I’ve thrown a little on the Crows for the premiership while they are still at +$10.00 at most places.

All the chatter is about their attack, but their defence has been just as impressive, restricting quality inside 50s to their opponents making them work for the points once they get it into the area. This is exactly where the problem lies in this matchup for Brisbane, who have not found it easy to score points from their entries this season.

Another epic contest at Adelaide Oval is expected and I do predict that the Crows will kick on once again as they have done many times this season, scoring over their team total of just 82.5 points.

Picking the goal scorers is the challenge, with the breadth of their attack so wide, however, while you can still get $1.80 odds for Darcy Fogarty to kick 2+ then you have to keep going back to the well.

7 of 8 Adelaide victories have been by a margin of 18 points or more.
Adelaide have scored 89 points or more in 7 of 8 victories this season
Adelaide ranks in the top 3 in opposition marks inside 50, opposition goal accuracy and opposition goals per inside 50.
Darcy Fogarty has kicked 2+ goals in 9 of 11 matches this season

Head to Head

Last time the Crows and Lions met at Adelaide Oval in round 9 last season it ended up in a 90-point draw after Brisbane gave up an 18-point third quarter lead.

The draw and a win back in 2023 is the only ‘success’ the Crows have had against the Lions with Brisbane winning the other 6 encounters since the 2019 season.

The last 6 matches between Brisbane and Adelaide has gone over the game total.

Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-1	4-1	1-4

The Crows are starting to lose the smokey tag and are being talked about like a true contender for the premiership, despite still paying $11.00 at most bookies to lift the trophy.

Adelaide embarrassed last year’s grand finalist the Sydney Swans on their home turf last week, making the trip back home after a 90-point victory, kicking an astonishing 21.5 on their way to victory.

The Crows attacking weapons are relentless inside the area, ranked 1st in the AFL with 54.4% accuracy and are second in the league, converting 28% of their forward entries into goals. Their depth in attack is unmatched in the AFL and their game against the Swans was a testament. The Crows kicked 21 goals and no player kicked more than the 3 (Ben Keays and Josh Rachele) with 14 different players scoring a major.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
8-4	4-8	3-4	5-0

Adelaide Crows Team News

Adelaide’s side is settled with the only change this week the return of Rory Laird who was rested against the Swans.

Adelaide Crows Team List

B: J.Worrell, J.Butts, M.Hinge

HB: M.Michalanney, M.Keane, R.Laird

C: I.Cumming, J.Dawson - C, D.Curtin

HF: B.Keays, R.Thilthorpe, S.Berry

F: A.Neal-Bullen, T.Walker, D.Fogarty

FOLL: R.O’Brien, I.Rankine, J.Soligo

I/C: J.Rachele, J.Peatling, B.Smith, W.Milera, L.Pedlar

EMG: C.Burgess, Z.Taylor, H.Bond

In: - R.Laird

Out: - S.Draper (Omitted)

Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	2-3	1-4

Brisbane had a slight hiccup but has sorted their form out over the last couple of weeks with some better performances against the Hawks and the Bombers to stay put in second on the ladder.

Although they have found themselves in the winner’s circle again, Chris Fagan will still want to see more out of his men, who have not really dominated a contest all season long.

Brisbane’s midfield has still been strong, ranked third in stoppage clearances this season and also have been delivering the ball inside 50 at a solid rate of 55.9 times per game (3rd in AFL). However, the Lions have been below average in the forward third with below average numbers in accuracy and goals per inside 50.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
4-8	4-8	8-1	1-1

Brisbane Lions Team News

Oscar McInerney is expected to come back into the ruck for the Lions on Friday night.

Keiden Coleman has suffered another blow, straining his thigh and will now be out until the mid-season bye.

Brisbane Lions Team List

B: D.Zorko, J.Payne, R.Lester

HB: N.Answerth, H.Andrews, D.Wilmot

C: J.Fletcher, H.McCluggage, Z.Bailey

HF: C.Cameron, E.Hipwood, W.Ashcroft

F: C.Rayner, L.Morris, C.Ah Chee

FOLL: D.Fort, J.Dunkley, L.Neale - C

I/C: K.Lohmann, D.Robertson, J.Berry, L.Ashcroft, T.Gallop

EMG: L.Beecken, D.Joyce, O.McInerney

In: - T.Gallop

Out: - D.Gardiner (Injured)

Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 13 FAQ’s

How to watch Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 13?

You can watch the Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 13 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 13?

To buy tickets to the Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 13 game check the AFL website or the official Adelaide Crows site.

Verdict

Adelaide Crows v Brisbane Lions

Darcy Fogarty will kick two goals and the Crows will score over 82.5 points as they cover the 8.5 points as the favourite against Brisbane.

Adelaide -8.5

Handicap/Line

$1.91 - 3 Units

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Adelaide Over 82.5

Team Total

$1.91 - 3 Units

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Darcy Fogarty

2+ Goals

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