Melbourne Demons vs Collingwood Magpies AFL Tips - Magpies to put the big freeze on Demons slim finals hopes

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Thu 05 Jun 2025 07:51

Adam Cusworth 05 Jun 2025

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Melbourne Demons vs Collingwood Magpies expert predictions for Monday’s Round 13 AFL game
The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 3:20 PM (AEST)
Can the Demons produce an upset in the ‘big freeze’ at the MCG on Kings Birthday
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet

Adam's Melbourne Demons vs Collingwood Magpies AFL Tips

Melbourne Demons vs Collingwood Magpies, Round 13 2025 - Expert Prediction

Collingwood will put a major dent in Melbourne’s slim finals chances with a win at the MCG on King’s Birthday.

The Magpies sit on top of the ladder with 10 wins from 12 matches as we pass the halfway mark of the season and stifled Hawthorn last weekend in the 51-point victory.

The Demons went down to St Kilda by 28-points in Alice Springs in a game they simply needed to win. Wasteful kicking in front of goal cost them in the 7.21 to 14.7 scoreline

The 2021 premiers had improved their scoring output in previous weeks but come up against a Collingwood side that have conceded fewer points than any other side this season.

Expect the Magpies to roll on with another win with the total points going under. Jamie Elliott will be hard to stop up forward, while Nick Daicos looks set for another game. Max Gawn has had the measure of Darcy Cameron in recent years and will be influential for Melbourne.

Collingwood have conceded the fewest amount of points of any side this season.
Jamie Elliott has kicked 10 goals in the past two rounds
Nick Daicos had 40 disposals the last time the two sides met
Max Gawn is averaging over 20 disposals this season and has averaged 24 in his past three matches against Collingwood

Head to Head

Collingwood have won the past three matches between the two sides, including the corresponding encounter last year by 46 points. Nick Daicos starred in that match with 40 disposals.

Josh Daicos has averaged 29 disposals in his past three matches against Melbourne. Max Gawn has been a dominant force in the ruck for the Demons, averaging 34 hitouts and 24 disposals.

Melbourne Demons Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	3-2	3-2

Melbourne won five of six prior to their costly loss to St Kilda. They improved their connection inside forward 50 and registered 99 points or more in four of those games.

The Demons were smashed in the disposal count last weekend, allowing St Kilda to control with uncontested possessions. But Melbourne went inside 50 on 57 occasions to 40.

They just could not convert and Christian Petracca was the only multiple goalkicker with two majors. Petracca has 13 goals from 12 matches this season, while Kozzie Pickett has 18 from nine. Petracca and Oliver are averaging over 25 disposals in 2025, while their skipper, Max Gawn, is at 20+ from the ruck.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
5-7	6-6	4-5	1-2

Melbourne Demons Team News

Melbourne’s Jack Viney has missed the past month with concussion and will continue to be assessed at training. Matthew Jeferson has kicked 10 goals in the past two weeks in the VFL, while Jack Billings found plenty of the ball at that level last weekend and will be considered.

Melbourne Demons Team List

Team list yet to be released.

Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-1	3-2	2-3

Collingwood have won four straight matches. The last two of those were by margins greater than 39.5 points. They have conceded the lowest amount of points than any side in the competition, conceding just 68 points per game.

The Magpies have kicked north of 100 points in the past two rounds. Jamie Elliott has booted 10 goals in the past fortnight and has 33 for the season from 12 matches.

Nick Daicos had 32 disposals against Hawthorn and is averaging 30 in 2025. His brother, Josh, averages 27 disposals in 2025.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
8-4	5-7	5-1	5-1

Collingwood Magpies Team News

Collingwood are set to lose Pat Lipinski and Lachie Schultz from the side that defeated Hawthorn. The 2018 Brownlow Medallist, Tom Mitchell, is just about ready to return from a long-term injury. Brayden Maynard, Dan McStay and Jordan de Goey remain unavailable.