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Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans AFL Tips - Demons to pick up vital four points and stay in touch with top eight

adam-cusworth
Adam Cusworth
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Last updated: 22 May 2025
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Adam Cusworth 22 May 2025
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  • Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 11 AFL game
  • The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 3:20 PM (AEST)
  • Can the Demons continue their momentum or will it be the Swans?
  • Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans AFL Tips

Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans, Round 11 2025 - Expert Prediction

  • Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans, Round 11 2025 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Melbourne Demons Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Melbourne Demons Team News
  • Melbourne Demons Team List
  • Sydney Swans Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Sydney Swans Team News
  • Sydney Swans Team List
  • Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans AFL 2025 Round 11 FAQ’s

Melbourne will keep their finals hopes alive with a win over Sydney at the MCG on Sunday. 

The 2021 premiers looked dead and buried when winless after Round 5 but have taken out four of five since then, including a stunning upset over Brisbane at the GABBA by 11 points in Round 10. 

They have a win-loss record of 4-6, the same as their opponents for this weekend’s match, Sydney, making this a key encounter as we head to the halfway mark of the season. 

The Swans big guns in Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner starred last weekend in their 16-point win over Carlton. 

But with Max Gawn in dominant form as well as a rejuvenated Christian Petracca playing some of his best footy since his nasty injury last season, the Demons can get the job done here. 

Take the Demons in the 1-39 point bracket, while Petracca can find plenty of the footy. Consider big Max in disposal markets as well. Kozzie Pickett looms as a match winner. 

  • Melbourne have won four of their past five matches.
  • Christian Petracca has averaged 28 disposals in his past four matches against Sydney
  • Kozzie Pickett has kicked 13 goals in his past six matches. 
  • The Swans have lost their past three matches outside of Sydney 

Head to Head 


Melbourne and Sydney have not met since the Opening Round in 2024, which resulted in a 22 point win for the Swans. Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Nick Blakey all had 26 disposals for the winners, while Clayton Oliver and Jack Viney had 30 for the Demons. 

Sydney have won seven of the past eight against Melbourne at the MCG, including the 2022 Qualifying Final. Christian Petracca has averaged 28 disposals in his past four matches against Sydney, while Bailey Fritsch has kicked 15 goals in his past four. 

Melbourne Demons Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form

Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
4-13-23-2

Melbourne have won four of their past five matches, claiming victories over some solid opponents in Fremantle and Brisbane, while they've picked off the likes of Richmond and West Coast. Those wins have all been below 39.5 points. 

Some familiar names that have been prominent, including Max Gawn and Christian Petracca. The Demons are 3rd for hitouts and 4th for disposals. Petracca picked up 30 disposals last weekend and is averaging 26, while Clayton Oliver is going at a tick over 25. 

Over the course of the season, the Demons have struggled to impact the scoreboard but have kicked over 100 points twice in their last five matches, as well as the 99 they scored against the Lions. Jake Melksham kicked four goals last weekend, while Kozzie Pickett has booted 13 from his past six.  

2025 Betting Trends

ATSOver/Under1-3940+
4-65-54-40-2

Melbourne Demons Team News


Jake Lever, Jack Viney and Harrison Petty are all in the frame to come back from injury. Jack Billings and Jacob van Rooyen featured in the VFL last weekend but may find it hard to squeeze into the winning lineup. 

Melbourne Demons Team List


B: J.Bowey, S.May, C.Salem
HB: J.McVee, T.McDonald, C.Windsor
C: X.Lindsay, C.Petracca, E.Langdon
HF: K.Chandler, H.Petty, T.Sparrow
F: C.Spargo, J.Melksham, K.Pickett
FOLL: M.Gawn - C, C.Oliver, H.Langford

I/C (FROM): J.Lever, D.Turner, B.Laurie, T.Rivers, H.Sharp, B.Fritsch, A.Johnson, J.Culley

In: - J.Lever, B.Laurie, J.Culley
Out: -

Sydney Swans Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form

Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
2-32-31-4

Sydney are hanging in there under their new coach, Dean Cox, despite their massive injury list. The Swans have won two of their past three with those coming at the SCG over GWS and Carlton. The loss in between those was by eight points to Essendon when slow out of the blocks in the first half. 

The Swans have lost their past three outside of Sydney but did chalk up two wins on the road earlier this season. 

Isaac Heeney (38 disposals and two goals) and Chad Warner (30 and two) starred in the win over Carlton last weekend. Matt Roberts heads the disposal averages at Sydney, going at 24 per game. The Swans have lacked a genuine goalkicker in 2025. Joal Amartey returned to the side with two goals last weekend but will miss through suspension. 

2025 Betting Trends

ATSOver/Under1-3940+
5-53-73-61-0

Sydney Swans Team News


Joel Amartey and Justin McInerney have been suspended for separate indiscretions from the Carlton match. Callum Mills got through his first game back last week at VFL level and is set to come back in. Taylor Adams will be considered. Robbie Fox is nearing his return from injury but Tom Papley and Errol Gulden are still 4-6 weeks away. 

Sydney Swans Team List


B: S.Wicks, T.McCartin, D.Rampe
HB: M.Roberts, N.Blakey, R.Bice
C: C.Mills, I.Heeney, J.Lloyd
HF: Co.Warner, J.Hamling, B.Campbell
F: W.Hayward, P.Ladhams, C.Cleary
FOLL: B.Grundy, Ch.Warner, J.Rowbottom - C

I/C (FROM): O.Florent, A.Sheldrick, J.Jordon, H.McLean, T.Adams, B.Paton, C.Mitchell, N.Bowman

In: - C.Mills, H.McLean, T.Adams, B.Paton, C.Mitchell, N.Bowman
Out: - J.McInerney (Suspension), J.Amartey (Suspension), A.Francis (Injured)

Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans AFL 2025 Round 11 FAQ’s

How to watch Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans AFL 2025 Round 11?

You can watch the Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans AFL 2025 Round 11 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans AFL 2025 Round 11?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne Demons vs Sydney Swans AFL 2025 Round 11 game check the AFL website or the official Melbourne Demons site.

Verdict

Take the Demons in the 1-39 point bracket, while Petracca can find plenty of the footy. Consider big Max in disposal markets as well. Kozzie Pickett looms as a match winner.
Best Bet1: Melbourne 1-39 Winning Margin 1-39 $2.50 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: Christian Petracca To Have 25+ disposals $1.66 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Max Gawn To Have 20+ disposals $1.55 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Kozzie Pickett To Kick 2+ goals $1.64 at dabble - 1 Unit
Melbourne 1-39
Winning Margin 1-39
$2.50 - 1 Unit
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Christian Petracca
To Have 25+ disposals
$1.66 - 1 Unit
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Max Gawn
To Have 20+ disposals
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Kozzie Pickett
To Kick 2+ goals
$1.64 - 1 Unit
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