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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions AFL Tips - All signs point to the Hawks

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Thu 22 May 2025 14:09

Jeremy Darke 22 May 2025

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 11 AFL game
The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 4:15 PM (AEST)
Brisbane Lions expected to continue winless streak against Hawthorn Hawks.
Hawks’ strategy focuses on pressure and turnovers; game total likely under 172.5 points.

Chol for a couple against Brisbane.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions, Round 11 2025 - Expert Prediction

Brisbane’s dip will continue as they fall to their sixth consecutive loss to Hawthorn becoming winless in their last 3 matches.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions, Round 11 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Hawthorn Hawks Team News
Hawthorn Hawks Team List
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Brisbane Lions Team News
Brisbane Lions Team List
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 11 FAQ’s

Brisbane are in a downward spiral at the moment after giving up 6 of a possible 8 points over the last 2 weeks, drawing with North Melbourne and giving up a fourth quarter lead to the Demons last week.

The Demons showed that with a bit of pressure you can unsettle the Lions and Brisbane now come up against one the best pressure teams in the AFL with the Hawks who create turnovers and use it as a source to build their total.

The record for Brisbane isn’t great against the Hawks and it is going to be a too big of a task which will see Hawthorn jump the Lions on the ladder. Expect the Hawks to suffocate the scoring of Brisbane which will keep this total under 172.5 points.

Jack Gunston and Maboir Chol dominated the 2024 match up between these two side and you can expect the forward pairing to be firing again on Saturday.

80% of Hawthorn’s results have been decided by a 1-39 margin.
Hawthorn ranks third in opposition turnovers with an average of 66.7 per game.
Hawthorn average just 66 points against per game at the MCG this season.
Maboir Chol averages 2 goals per game this season.

Head to Head

Hawthorn have won their last 5 matches against Brisbane, beating them 100-75 in last year’s Round 11 clash. The Hawks took control with a 27-9 first quarter and never looked back, kicking on strongly in the fourth.

Jack Gunston (4) and Maboir Chol (3) combined for 7 goals in the match.

5 of the last 7 matches between Hawthorn have had a Game Total under 172.5 points.

Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	3-2	2-3

The Hawks knew it was going to be a tough task against the Gold Coast at TIO Stadium in Darwin and that is exactly what they got, going down to the rising Suns 104-96 at their second home in the Northern Territory in Round 10.

After resting both Jack Gunston and Lloyd Meek, I don’t see the Hawks being too overly worried about the loss after a short turnaround and all of the external factors they were up against.

It was just their third loss of the season and they were on a three-game run heading into the clash against the Coast.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
7-3	5-5	5-3	2-0

Hawthorn Hawks Team News

Jack Gunston and Loyd Nash return to the side after being managed last week while Jarman Impey will also be back after missing the clash against the Suns du to the birth of his child.

Conor Nash also returns from his four-game suspension and will come in on the interchange.

Hawthorn Hawks Team List

B: J.Battle, T.Barrass, J.Sicily - C

HB: K.Amon, B.Hardwick, M.D’Ambrosio

C: J.Impey, J.Ward, H.Morrison

HF: J.Weddle, N.Watson, D.Moore

F: C.Macdonald, M.Chol, J.Gunston

FOLL: L.Meek, J.Newcombe, J.Worpel

I/C: C.Jiath, J.Ginnivan, C.Nash, J.Scrimshaw, C.Mackenzie

EMG: F.Maginness, B.Macdonald, C.Dear

In: - J.Impey, J.Gunston, L.Meek, C.Nash

Out: - N.Reeves (Injured), B.Macdonald (Omitted), F.Maginness (Managed), C.Dear (Omitted)

Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	2-3	2-3

After a disappointing showing in their 71-all draw with North Melbourne in Round 9, the Lions become their worst enemies again, giving up a 23-point second-quarter lead to the Demons at the Gabba after falling apart in the fourth quarter and letting the Demons play through them, going down 99-88.

The Demons were outnumbered at the contests and crumbled under the pressure of Melbourne, which they haven’t shown all season, being just as surprised as the rest of us.

The loss caps off a couple of poor weeks for Brisbane who have struggled to move the ball forward efficiently and create enough points to get the win, averaging just 75 points in their last 3 matches.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
3-7	4-6	6-1	1-1

Brisbane Lions Team News

Jarrod Berry has passed concussion protocol and has been named on the interchange for Brisbane.

Brisbane Lions Team List

B: D.Zorko, J.Payne, R.Lester

HB: N.Answerth, H.Andrews - C, D.Wilmot

C: J.Fletcher, H.McCluggage, Z.Bailey

HF: C.Cameron, E.Hipwood, W.Ashcroft

F: C.Rayner, L.Morris, C.Ah Chee

FOLL: D.Fort, J.Dunkley, L.Neale

I/C: K.Lohmann, D.Robertson, J.Berry, L.Ashcroft, D.Gardiner

EMG: S.Marshall, T.Gallop, O.McInerney

In: - D.Robertson, J.Berry

Out: - K.Coleman (Managed), C.McKenna (Omitted)

Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 11 FAQ’s

How to watch Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 11?

You can watch the Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 11 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.