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Carlton Blues vs GWS Giants AFL Tips - Ah McKay you’ve done it again

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Thu 22 May 2025 14:02

Jeremy Darke 22 May 2025

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Carlton Blues vs GWS Giants expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 11 AFL game
The game will be played at Marvel Stadium, with the bounce at 12:35 PM (AEST)
Carlton strengthened with return of key players.
GWS struggles defensively, gives Carlton edge.

McKay for goal ladders.

Carlton Blues vs GWS Giants, Round 11 2025 - Expert Prediction

Flip of the coin of which team shows up on the day between these two sides who have been great one week and very poor the next. However, with the Blues getting some troops back this week, I am backing them to cover against the Giants.

Carlton Blues vs GWS Giants, Round 11 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Carlton Blues Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Carlton Blues Team News
Carlton Blues Team List
GWS Giants Form Analysis & Betting Trends
GWS Giants Team News
GWS Giants Team List
Carlton Blues vs GWS Giants AFL 2025 Round 11 FAQ’s

The return of Tom De Koning & Lachie Fogarty is the boost that the Blues need to sort out their scoring issues with their gun goal kickers Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow can now focus on what they do best and convert their inside 50s into goals.

GWS have been off pace defensively over the last month and with Patrick Cripps dictating the midfield where the Giants have struggled, I like the Blues to get up and put on points with a flourish of inside 50s.

Harry McKay kicked 5 goals last time Carlton met GWS and although he isn’t in that kind of goal kicking form this season, the majors are still kicking along so another couple isn’t out of the question.

GWS have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
Carlton are ranked 1st in Contested Possessions vs GWS Giants's defence ranked 13th.
GWS ranks 17th in opposition inside 50s this season.
Harry McKay has 8 goals in his last 4 matches.

Head to Head

Carlton and GWS split the results in 2024 in two highly entertaining games of footy which saw 435 points scored over the two matches.

Carlton took the Round 6 clash 117-98 with GWS returning serve 116-104 in Round 17. Jesse Hogan (GWS) and Harry McKay (Carlton) ran wild for their respective clubs, kicking 8 goals each in an explosive clash between two bigs.

The results have been split 2-2 over the last 2 seasons, however Carlton have won 4 of the last 6 games.

Carlton Blues Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	3-2	1-4

Carlton had their own fate in their hands and let it slip through their fingers in the fourth quarter to go down to the Swans 78-62, being outscored 34-14 in the final term.

It was another unpolished performance from the Blues that has been too much of a recurrence this season, unable to close out matches when starting well or vice versa.

The Blues just haven’t been their usual clinical selves with one of the strongest duos in Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow unable to inspire their forwards to any better than 80.7 points per game (12th in AFL). A lot of the poor scoring has to do with their goal to inside 50 conversion, ranked 17th in the AFL at 20.9%.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
4-6	1-9	2-5	2-1

Carlton Blues Team News

Tom De Koning, Lachie Fogarty and Blake Acres have all been cleared to play this week and slot straight back in in a huge boost for the Blues.

Sam Docherty also comes back into the side after strong performances in the VFL.

Carlton Blues Team List

B: L.Young, J.Weitering, A.Saad

HB: O.Hollands, H.O’Farrell, M.McGovern

C: S.Walsh, P.Cripps - C, J.Binns

HF: C.Durdin, C.Curnow, C.Lord

F: L.Fogarty, H.McKay, J.Motlop

FOLL: T.De Koning, A.Cerra, G.Hewett

I/C: N.Haynes, M.Carroll, B.Acres, W.White, S.Docherty

EMG: M.Pittonet, F.Evans, L.Camporeale

In: - H.O’Farrell, L.Fogarty, T.De Koning, B.Acres, S.Docherty

Out: - E.Hollands (Personal Reason), J.Silvagni (Injured), M.Pittonet (Omitted), F.Evans (Omitted), J.Boyd (Injured)

GWS Giants Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-4	1-4	2-3

The Giants couldn’t back up their strong performance against the Cats in their 105-101 victory in Geelong, going down unexpectedly to Fremantle 95-61 at ENGIE Stadium in Round 10.

It was the Giants fourth loss in 5 weeks as they have fallen off the rails since the first month of the season. Over the last 4 matches the Giants have given up an average of 99 points to their opponents, unable to create enough pressure through their midfield to close down the corridor.

With free ball movement in transition GWS gives up the second-most inside 50s to their opponents of any team in the AFL.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
4-6	4-6	3-5	2-0

GWS Giants Team News

Finn Callaghan will miss the next month with a shoulder injury while Toby McMullin is out for a week with an adductor issue.

GWS Giants Team List

B: C.Idun, S.Taylor, H.Himmelberg

HB: L.Whitfield, J.Buckley, L.Ash

C: X.O’Halloran, C.Ward, J.Wehr

HF: H.Thomas, A.Cadman, D.Jones

F: C.Brown, J.Hogan, T.Greene - C

FOLL: K.Briggs, T.Bedford, T.Green

I/C: C.Angove, L.Aleer, J.Fonti, J.Riccardi, H.Rowston

EMG: J.Delana, J.Leake, R.Angwin

In: - L.Aleer, H.Rowston

Out: - F.Callaghan (Injured), T.McMullin (Injured)

Carlton Blues vs GWS Giants AFL 2025 Round 11 FAQ’s

How to watch Carlton Blues vs GWS Giants AFL 2025 Round 11?

You can watch the Carlton Blues vs GWS Giants AFL 2025 Round 11 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Carlton Blues vs GWS Giants AFL 2025 Round 11?

To buy tickets to the Carlton Blues vs GWS Giants AFL 2025 Round 11 game check the AFL website or the official Carlton Blues site.

Verdict

Carlton v Greater Western Sydney

Harry McKay will feature multiple times on the scoresheet for the Blues as they kick over 85.5 points against the Giants and cover as 4.5- point favourites.

Carlton -4.5

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