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Essendon Bombers vs Richmond Tigers AFL Round 11 Tips - Essendon to win Dreamtime at the G

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Thu 22 May 2025 11:36

Ryan Tucker 22 May 2025

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Essendon Bombers vs Richmond Tigers expert predictions for Friday’s Round 11 AFL game
The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEST)
Essendon aims to exploit Richmond's weak defence with their top-ranked handball game.
Richmond expected to struggle offensively without Tom Lynch, averaging just 68.2 points per game.
Zach Merrett is predicted to shine as Best on Ground, echoing past performances.

Essendon Bombers vs Richmond Tigers AFL Round 11 Tips

Essendon Bombers vs Richmond Tigers, Round 11 2025 - Expert Prediction

Despite Essendon’s inconsistencies this season and poor record against the Tigers they are tipped to win comfortably in the Dreamtime matchup at the G this Friday night.

The Bombers snuck away with a 1 pt win in the corresponding matchup last season but it is difficult to see where the Tigers get any elite level scoring from in this game and their defence could be torn to shreds if Essendon decide to employ the handball gameplan that they have done previously this season.

Essendon rank 1st in Handballs in 2025 while Richmond allow the most handballs, well disposals of any kind really, in the AFL. The Bombers disposal efficiency is also top 5 in the league and if they can sort out their shit in front of the sticks then they can put a margin between them and the Tigers on Friday night.

Richmond are ranked 1st in Intercept Marks but mainly because teams are getting past their midfield so easily and hitting up the forward line in volumes. Their opponents are also getting into good scoring positions with the highest rate of opponent Accuracy in the AFL.

Take the Bombers to cover and if you are feeling daring take them 40+, without Lynch the Tigers are going Under their team total. Zach Merrett is the top tip for Best on Ground.

Essendon are the team that use the most handballs per game, are above average in Rebound 50’s and Richmond allow their opponents a 52.4% accuracy rate in front of goal, most in the AFL.
The Tigers are averaging just 68.2 pts per game this season with half of their games even going under 68 pts.
Richmond have the lowest rated attack in the AFL at -15.9.
An Essendon player has won the Yiooken Award for best on ground in 3 of the last 4 games. Merrett won the award in 2023 with 39 disposals, 5 clearances and 7 tackles.

Head to Head

Essendon have won two in a row against Richmond, both tight matchups at the MCG but the Tigers have dominated in the 5 games previous dating back to the start of the 2019 season.

Richmond are 5-2 ATS through the same period while the Game Total is 4-3 to the Under.

Only the Tigers 141-75 win in August of 22 was a 40+ win margin while all other games have stayed between 1-39.

Essendon Bombers Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	1-4	1-4

Essendon were embarrassed last weekend by a clinical Bulldogs outfit, going down by 91 points 127-36. It was the Bombers lowest total of the season and highest losing margin since their 126 pt flogging at the hands of the Giants in August of 2023.

The inconsistencies from Essendon defensively are stark. They have allowed 100+ points in 4 matches this season but in the remaining 5 games their opposition average is just 63.4 pts, they have won all 5 of those matchups.

The Bombers are ranked 16th in Opposition Marks Inside 50 and 17th in Opposition Points from Turnovers.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
3-6	3-6	5-1	0-3

Essendon Bombers Team News

Jade Gresham is set to return in this matchup while Darcy Parish is expected to suit up in the AFL in line with his return strategy. Matt Guelfi has played two games in the lower grades after returning from a back injury and could be an outside chance in getting a call up.

Essendon Bombers Team List

B: A.McGrath, B.McKay, A.Roberts

HB: M.Redman, Z.Reid, J.Prior

C: X.Duursma, Z.Merrett - C, A.Clarke

HF: A.Perkins, N.Caddy, N.Martin

F: K.Langford, P.Wright, I.Kako

FOLL: T.Goldstein, J.Caldwell, S.Durham

I/C: B.Hobbs, J.Gresham, W.Setterfield, J.Laverde, M.Guelfi

EMG: E.Tsatas, S.El-Hawli, Z.Johnson

In: - A.Clarke, J.Gresham, M.Guelfi

Out: - D.Shiel (Omitted), S.El-Hawli (Omitted), A.Day-Wicks (Omitted)

Richmond Tigers Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	3-2	0-5

The Tigers controlled the air against North Melbourne last weekend but ultimately could not get the job done, going down in a tight contest 78-74.

Nick Vlaustin, Nathan Broad and Ben Miller combined for 23 intercept marks in the game as Richmond threatened to come from behind to steal the game late. Tom Lynch had another up and down game, failing to get a possession in the first quarter but then turning it around to pick up 2 goals and 13 touches.

Richmond won the Inside 50 battle 49-45 even exceeding their season average of 43.9 but their poor efficiency once again hampered their ability to put points on the board finishing with 46.9% Efficiency Inside 50.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
5-5	3-7	3-3	0-4

Richmond Tigers Team News

Dion Prestia will return through the VFL along with Tylar Young and Samson Ryan. Jayden Short will miss a couple weeks with a calf injury while Noah Balta will miss this and next week due to his court order.

Tom Lynch developed concussion symptoms post match last weekend and is out while working through that.

Richmond Tigers Team List

B: N.Vlastuin, B.Miller, C.Gray

HB: T.Brown, S.Banks, N.Broad - C

C: T.Dow, K.McIntosh, H.Ralphsmith

HF: J.Ross, S.Campbell, R.Mansell

F: T.Sims, S.Lalor, J.Faull

FOLL: S.Ryan, T.Taranto, J.Hopper

I/C: K.Smith, L.Trainor, M.Rioli, S.Green, K.McAuliffe

EMG: J.Trezise, T.Sonsie, L.Fawcett

In: - C.Gray, S.Ryan, M.Rioli

Out: - N.Balta (Personal Reason), T.Lynch (Injured), T.Nankervis (Managed)

Essendon Bombers vs Richmond Tigers AFL 2025 Round 11 FAQ’s

How to watch Essendon Bombers vs Richmond Tigers AFL 2025 Round 11?

You can watch the Essendon Bombers vs Richmond Tigers AFL 2025 Round 11 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Essendon Bombers vs Richmond Tigers AFL 2025 Round 11?

To buy tickets to the Essendon Bombers vs Richmond Tigers AFL 2025 Round 11 game check the AFL website or the official Essendon Bombers site.

Verdict

Essendon v Richmond

Take the Bombers to cover and if you are feeling daring take them 40+, without Lynch the Tigers are going Under their team total. Zach Merrett is the top tip for Best on Ground.

Essendon -19.5

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