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Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers AFL Tips - Dees to defy models to lose, again

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Thu 17 Apr 2025 13:42

Ryan Tucker 17 Apr 2025

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Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 6 AFL game
The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 1:20 PM (AEST)
Fremantle Dockers bring strong momentum with a 3-game winning streak.
Melbourne Demons remain winless and struggle with scoring efficiency.
Expert prediction favors Fremantle to cover the 17.5 point line; the match expected to go Under the Total.

Freo to steer the ship to another victory over hapless Dees.

Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers, Round 6 2025 - Expert Prediction

There is nothing to suggest Melbourne will be able to turn around their bad fortunes against a visiting Fremantle Dockers who bring with them high scoring momentum and a solid H2H record.

Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers, Round 6 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Melbourne Demons Team News
Melbourne Demons Team List
Fremantle Dockers Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Fremantle Dockers Team News
Fremantle Dockers Team List
Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers AFL 2025 Round 6 FAQ’s

But that is exactly what scares me, especially as a fan of the Dockers. These are the kind of spots where their concentration and skills breakdown and they allow their opposition to do things they have no right in doing.

My predictive modelling has Melbourne actually winning this game based on the adjustments of Fremantle’s prolific scoring against bad teams over the last 3 weeks. The question is just whether we can trust it with only 6 games played in the season so far.

Looking at game play stats the Demons have matched it more or less with their opponents over the past couple weeks, it is their scoring that has faltered and in a dramatic fashion. If we apply that logic to this game and theorise if they will magically start scoring again against a Freo team that has historically been one of the better defensive teams in the league - we reach a conclusion that they will not.

With a team like Melbourne who have not won this long into the season, betting standards tell me to wait to see it to believe. That’s why I'm backing the Dockers to cover the 17.5 point line in a game to go Under the Total.

The Dees covered in their first game but have failed in every game since.
Fremantle have won 3 in a row vs Melbourne, the last two by 50 and 92 points.
Luke Ryan had 24 and 28 disposals vs Melbourne last season.
Caleb Serong had 27 and 36 disposals vs Melbourne in the two games last season.

Head to Head

Fremantle own the better head to head record in this matchup dating back to the start of the 2019 season. They have won 5 of 8 including the last 3 games straight.

Both games last season were big blowouts to Fremantle’s advantage with a 141-49 win at TIO stadium and a 116-66 win at Optus later in the year. Apart from those two games, only one other has exceeded 40 points in win margin.

The Over is 5-4 in this matchup.

Melbourne Demons Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
0-5	1-4	2-3

The Demons sunk to yet another low last weekend with a 96-57 loss to the Bombers at Gather Round. It is their 5th loss of the season without taking a win which cements them at the bottom of the ladder together with West Coast who are also still winless.

Melbourne are averaging 61 points per game as they struggle to fire at the attacking end of the park. There were a couple moments in the loss where they started to build momentum through the ground but only 17 scoring shots isn’t winning too many games in today’s AFL.

The Dees had 51 entries into their forward 50 but the efficiency rate was dire with a 33.3% outcome at the end of the game. They rank 4th last in the league in Inside 50’s, 4th last in Scoring shots and dead last in Scoring shots inside 50.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
1-4	2-3	0-3	0-2

Melbourne Demons Team News

Changes are expected at the Demons to try and restart their 0-5 season. Kozzie Pickett rolled an ankle against the Dons but is expected to be available for selection. Steven May is battling a foot injury and will need to pass a fitness test to play.

Melbourne Demons Team List

B: J.Bowey, H.Petty, T.McDonald

HB: X.Lindsay, S.May, C.Salem

C: C.Windsor, J.Viney, E.Langdon

HF: K.Tholstrup, T.Fullarton, K.Pickett

F: K.Chandler, D.Turner, C.Spargo

FOLL: M.Gawn - C, C.Petracca, H.Langford

I/C: C.Oliver, J.Melksham, T.Rivers, H.Sharp, T.Sparrow

EMG: B.Howes, B.Fritsch, J.Henderson

In: K.Tholstrup, T.Fullarton, D.Turner

Out: J.van Rooyen (Omitted), J.Henderson (Omitted), B.Fritsch (Omitted)

Fremantle Dockers Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	3-2	3-2

The Dockers ended up kicking away from the Tigers who burst out of the gates to an early lead at Gather Round last weekend. Freo ended up winning the game by 61 points 108-47 after leading by just 2 points at the first break and 10 points at the main break.

Josh Treacy had a blinder, kicking 6 goals 1 behind while taking 8 marks and laying 3 tackles during the game. Andy Brayshaw and Caleb Serong were once again strong through the middle as they wrestled momentum from their opponents just after half time controlling the tempo and style of play.

Hayden Young’s return to the lineup allowed the Dockers to have that extra pair of safe hands and a big left boot through the middle of the field. It was evident early how much the team had missed him as his work rate contributed to Freo controlling the ball from their own half.

After not reaching 70 points over their first two games the Dockers have now averaged 103 points over their last 3.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
3-2	3-2	2-1	1-1

Fremantle Dockers Team News

Patrick Voss has been handed a 3 game suspension for his high shot on Tigers veteran Nick Vlaustin. That severely depletes the backup ruck stocks with Luke Jackson still a couple weeks away from returning from a hamstring injury.

Fremantle Dockers Team List

B: L.Ryan, A.Pearce - C, B.Cox

HB: H.Chapman, K.Worner, J.Clark

C: J.Sharp, H.Young, J.O’Meara

HF: M.Frederick, S.Switkowski, S.Bolton

F: M.Reid, J.Treacy, J.Amiss

FOLL: S.Darcy, C.Serong, A.Brayshaw

I/C: O.McDonald, B.Banfield, M.Johnson, J.Draper, I.Dudley

EMG: N.Erasmus, L.Reidy, J.Aish

In: O.McDonald

Out: P.Voss (Suspension)

Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers AFL 2025 Round 6 FAQ’s

How to watch Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers AFL 2025 Round 6?

You can watch the Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers AFL 2025 Round 6 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers AFL 2025 Round 6?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers AFL 2025 Round 6 game check the AFL website or the official Melbourne Demons site.

Verdict

Melbourne v Fremantle

Fremantle -17.5

Line

$1.91 - 3 Units

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