Home
AFL

Jesse’s AFL Round 15 Tips 2026: Predictions & Margins for Every Match

Jeremy Darke

Editor

Last updated: Tue 16 Jun 2026 12:07

Jeremy Darke 3 hours ago

Share this article

Jesse predicts Geelong to upset Fremantle in the match of the round.
Port Adelaide and GWS tipped to win crucial, ladder-shaking games.
Finals race heats up with several must-win fixtures as top-eight tightens.

Jesse from True Footy's Round 15 AFL Tips

AFL Round 15 Tips 2026: Jesse’s Predictions & Margins for Every Match

Round 15 delivers one of the biggest weekends of the AFL season.

AFL Round 15 Tips 2026: Jesse’s Predictions & Margins for Every Match
Fremantle vs Geelong Prediction
Gold Coast vs Hawthorn Prediction
Adelaide vs Melbourne Prediction
GWS Giants vs Carlton Prediction
Collingwood vs Port Adelaide Prediction
Richmond vs North Melbourne Prediction
St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs Prediction

The top eight race is tightening, finals contenders are starting to separate themselves, and several clubs face must-win games to keep their September hopes alive. Headlining the round is a blockbuster between the AFL's top two teams, while a handful of potential upsets could shake up the ladder significantly.

Here are Jesse’s tips and predicted margins for every AFL Round 15 game.

Fremantle vs Geelong Prediction

This is easily the game of the round.

Fremantle have been the benchmark side all season despite their Round 1 loss to Geelong, which remains their only defeat of the year. Caleb Serong, Hayden Young and Shai Bolton continue to drive the Dockers, while Geelong regained momentum with a strong win over Gold Coast.

Despite rating Fremantle as the better team overall, there's enough uncertainty coming off the bye and enough respect for Geelong's record against the Dockers to lean towards a minor upset.

Jesse’s Tip: Geelong by 4 points

Geelong Cats1-39 Winning MarginBET HERE

The OnlyBets referral code is MAXBET. 18+. T&Cs apply.

Gold Coast vs Hawthorn Prediction

Gold Coast continue to frustrate with their inconsistency.

Christian Petracca, Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson give the Suns enormous midfield talent, but their clearance numbers remain surprisingly poor. Hawthorn exposed those issues earlier this season and remain one of the competition's most polished teams.

The Hawks' ball movement and ability to control possession should again prove too much.

Jesse’s Tip: Hawthorn by 18 points

Hawthorn Hawks1-39 Winning MarginBET HERE

18+ only. T&Cs apply

Adelaide vs Melbourne Prediction

This shapes as one of the most important games of the round.

Adelaide have surged into contention thanks to the form of Jordan Dawson, Riley Thilthorpe and emerging talent Dan Curtin. Melbourne remain a serious threat, but their struggles away from the MCG continue to raise questions.

At Adelaide Oval, the Crows deserve favouritism.

Jesse’s Tip: Adelaide Crows by 11 points

Adelaide Crows1-39 Winning MarginBET HERE

The Neds.com.au code is BESTBETS. 18+ only. T&Cs apply. WHAT'S GAMBLING REALLY COSTING YOU? Set a deposit limit.

GWS Giants vs Carlton Prediction

Carlton have won four straight games and belief has quickly returned around the club.

Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh are leading the resurgence, while GWS continue to alternate between brilliant and disappointing performances. The Giants remain dangerous, particularly through their ability to score quickly from turnover, and that attacking flair gives them a slight edge at home.

Jesse’s Tip: GWS Giants by 17 points

GWS Giants1-39 Winning MarginBET HERE

New customers only. 18+ T&Cs and wagering requirements apply. WHAT'S GAMBLING REALLY COSTING YOU? Set a deposit limit.

Collingwood vs Port Adelaide Prediction

This could be one of the sneaky best games of the weekend.

Port Adelaide continue to improve despite not always getting rewarded on the scoreboard. Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis have led the way, while the Power's defence has quietly become one of their strengths.

Collingwood have lost three of their last four and injuries continue to bite. At the MCG most will back the Magpies, but Port Adelaide's recent form suggests they can cause an upset.

Jesse’s Tip: Port Adelaide by 10 points

Port Adelaide Power1-39 Winning MarginBET HERE

18+. T&Cs apply

Richmond vs North Melbourne Prediction

North Melbourne have been inconsistent over the past fortnight but still look a level above Richmond.

Luke Davies-Uniacke continues to drive the Kangaroos' midfield, while Richmond remain heavily reliant on effort and competitiveness as their young list develops.

The Tigers have shown signs of growth, but North should have too much quality.

Jesse’s Tip: North Melbourne Kangaroos by 25 points

North Melbourne Kangaroos1-39 Winning MarginBET HERE

The teambet.com.au code is BETS. 18+ only. T&Cs apply. Chances are you’re about to lose.

St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs Prediction

This is one of the toughest games of the round to tip.

The Saints have shown genuine improvement in recent weeks, with Liam Ryan adding spark and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera helping drive their ball movement. The Bulldogs remain difficult to trust, despite producing several strong wins this season.

Recent form slightly favours St Kilda, and at Marvel Stadium they look capable of edging a close contest.

Jesse’s Tip: St Kilda by 8 points