Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons AFL Round 15 Tips - Crows to Exorcise their Demons

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Wed 17 Jun 2026 12:07

Ryan Tucker 3 hours ago

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Adelaide Crows heavily favoured to win and cover -16.5 line.
Recommended bet: Game Total Over 178.5 points.
Props: Jordan Dawson & Kysaiah Pickett to each score 2+ goals.
The game will be played at Adelaide Oval on Saturday, 20th June, with the bounce at 1:15 PM (AEST)

Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons

Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons, Round 15 2026 - Expert Prediction

Adelaide -16.5 and the Game Total Over 178.5 are the game bets, with Jordan Dawson and Kysaiah Pickett to both grab 2+ goals.

Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons, Round 15 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis
Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons Team List & News
Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2026 Round 15 FAQ’s

The Footy Bets predictive model has Adelaide by 21.7 pts against a market line of -16.5. The Crows are on a genuine roll wtih seven wins from their last nine including a 57 pt demolition of the Bulldogs last week. Jordan Dawson was best afield with three goals and 32 Disposals, Josh Rachele booted four, Riley Thilthorpe returned with three and the Crows' midfield won the clearance battle comprehensively through Sam Berry and Dawson. This is a team operating at a different level to where they started the season.

Melbourne are 0-4 on the road this year and travel to Adelaide Oval having just beaten Essendon with a result that flattered them against the competition's weakest side. The Demons' defence rating of -0.1 and overall of +5.9 sit well below Adelaide's +9.1 and the Crows hold a Tackles advantage of +19.0 in this matchup that will suffocate Melbourne's midfield output.

The Over 178.5 is offering a tasty edge with Adelaide averaging 98.6 pts over their last five games and Melbourne allowing 92.4 pts on defence. Both teams scoring into the 80s and 90s gets this over without drama.

Dawson at 2+ goals is the standout prop. He has kicked three goals in each of his last two games and had five in this matchup in Round 17 2025 alongside three in 2023. Pickett to also grab 2 majors is the value Melbourne leg, he had three goals against Essendon last week and is averaging close to a goal a game across the season with genuine pace that Adelaide's defence will need to account for.

Take Adelaide -16.5, Game Total Over 178.5, Jordan Dawson 2+ goals and Kysaiah Pickett 2+ goals.

Adelaide have seven wins in their last nine games including a 57 pt blitz of the Bulldogs where they kicked nine first-quarter goals.
Melbourne are 0-4 on the road this season and travel to Adelaide Oval against a Crows side allowing just 80.6 pts per game.
Kysaiah Pickett has scored 3 goals in 2 straight games.
Jordan Dawson kicked three goals in each of his last two games and is averaging close to a goal per game this season.

Head to Head Stats

Adelaide won the most recent meeting between these teams in Rd 17 last year 90-77 at Adelaide Oval. But Melbourne have won 5 of the last 8 including 3 of 5 played in Adelaide. 6 of the 8 games have finished with win margins of 1-39 pts.

Adelaide Crows Form Analysis

Adelaide were electric against the Western Bulldogs, kicking nine goals in the opening quarter to effectively end the game as a contest and run out 57 pt winners. Dawson led the way with three first-quarter goals and 32 Disposals for the game, Rachele booted four and Thilthorpe returned from injury to slot three in his first game back. The Crows won clearances through Berry and Dawson and their tall forward line with Thilthorpe, Rachele and Dawson rotating through created mismatches all night. Luke Pedlar left with a hamstring injury before half-time and is in doubt this week.

Melbourne Demons Form Analysis

Melbourne avenged their Gather Round loss to Essendon with a 45 pt win at the MCG, with Kysaiah Pickett starring with 32 Disposals, 10 score involvements and three goals. Max Gawn was dominant with 10 Clearances and two goals and mid-season draftee Joel Fitzgerald slotted in smoothly with 24 Disposals. The Demons were superior across inside 50s, Disposals, Clearances and Contested Possession but the opposition was Essendon who are now the competition's bottom side, and the away record remains the defining concern heading to Adelaide Oval.

Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons Team List & News

Adelaide Crows Team News: Luke Pedlar (hamstring) is in doubt after leaving the Bulldogs game before half-time. Riley Thilthorpe returned last week and is expected to play. Callum Ah Chee and Jordon Butts both remain under injury management.

Melbourne Demons Team News: Harry Petty suffered a hamstring injury against Essendon and is in doubt. Archie Roberts (shoulder) is out. Joel Fitzgerald is expected to retain his spot after a strong debut performance.

Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2026 Round 15 FAQ’s

How to watch Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2026 Round 15?

You can watch the Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2026 Round 15 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.