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Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues AFL Tips - Hawks to chalk up important win in tight finals race

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Wed 23 Jul 2025 11:31

Adam Cusworth 23 Jul 2025

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues expert predictions for Thursday’s Round 20 AFL game
The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 7:30 PM (AEST)
Can the Blues cause an upset after finding their mojo last week?
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet

Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues AFL Tips

Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues, Round 20 2025 - Expert Prediction

Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues, Round 20 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Hawthorn Hawks Team List
Carlton Blues Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Carlton Blues Team News
Carlton Blues Team List
Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues AFL 2025 Round 20 FAQ’s

Hawthorn will take another step towards September with a win over Carlton on Thursday night at the MCG.

The Hawks are among a bottleneck of sides in the top eight and will be out to keep their top four chances alive, sitting in 5th spot with a win-loss record of 12-6. Carlton are out of contention in 12th spot and are 7-11.

While the Blues grabbed a much-needed 10-point win over Melbourne last week, they’ve lost four prior to that and are just 1-7 against top-half opposition.

Their forward line showed some positive signs last weekend with Charlie Curnow and Ashton Moir combining for seven goals, but the Blues rank 15th for scoring in their past five matches, while they are bottom two for disposal efficiency and scoring shots per inside 50.

Hawthorn’s pressure and cleaner ball movement — especially off turnover — should give them the edge at the ‘G. Take the Hawks to win in the 1–39 point range. They rarely blow teams away, with 14 of their 18 matches this season decided in that margin.

Jai Newcombe is in strong form and had 32 disposals the last time these sides met — he’s a reliable option to crack 25+ again. And while Carlton are struggling, Patrick Cripps is still their barometer and has had a solid last few weeks, hitting the 25+, while he has averaged 28 disposals in his last four against the Hawks.

Nine of Hawthorn’s 12 wins this season have landed in the 1-39 point range.
Jai Newcombe had 32 disposals the last time the two sides met
Patrick Cripps has averaged 28 disposals from his past four matches against the Hawks.
Carlton are 1-7 against sides in the top half of the ladder in 2025.

Head to Head

Hawthorn have won the past two matches between the two sides, including a 20-point victory at the MCG in Round 2 this season. Jai Newcombe had 32 disposals for the Hawks in that match, while Mabior Chol booted three goals. Patrick Cripps had 29 disposals for Carlton. Cripps has averaged 28 disposals from his past four matches against the Hawks.

Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-1	3-2	2-3

Hawthorn have won five of their past six. Their loss came to Fremantle a fortnight ago by 13 points, despite controlling large portions of that match. Against sides out of the eight this season, the Hawks enjoy a win-loss record of 10-1. They are four from seven at the MCG in 2025. 14 of Hawthorn’s 18 matches this season have landed in the 1-39 point range.

Hawthorn dominated the inside 50 count against Port Adelaide (64-44) last weekend. They led by just 10 points at three-quarter time before the floodgates opened. Jarman Impey enjoyed a rare stint up forward and snagged three goals in the last term. Impey also had 26 disposals against Port in what was a day out. Dylan Moore returned to his All-Australian form with 32 disposals and two goals.

Jack Gunston booted three for the match. The veteran has wound back the clock this season to lead the Hawks goalkicking with 42 majors from 15 matches. Calsher Dear has returned to the side with five from his past two.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
11-7	7-11	9-5	3-1

Hawthorn Hawks Team News

Finn Maginness is out indefinitely after suffering a lacerated kidney in the match against Port Adelaide. Mitch Lewis was a bit rusty in his return but is expected to play with Mabior Chol possibly needing another week to overcome a groin issue . Will Day is available to return from his long term foot injury and will be a welcome boost to the Hawks midfield.

Hawthorn Hawks Team List

B: J.Battle, T.Barrass, B.Hardwick

HB: J.Impey, J.Sicily (c), J.Scrimshaw

C: H.Morrison, J.Worpel, J.Ward,

HF: K.Amon, C.Dear, N.Watson

F: C.Macdonald, M.Lewis, D.Moore

R: L.Meek, J.Newcombe, W.Day

I/C: M.D’Ambrosio, C.Nash, J.Ginnivan, J.Gunston, B.Macdonald

EMG: M.Ramsden, C.Mackenzie, J.Serong

In: W.Day

Out: F.Maginness (Injured)

Carlton Blues Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-4	1-4	2-3

Carlton were winners last weekend but dropped their four matches prior to that, including two to top eight sides. They are 1-7 against sides in the top half of the ladder in 2025.

The Blues were accurate in front of goal against Melbourne in the 12.6 to 10.10 scoreline but scoring has been an issue this season and they have averaged just 68 points per game in their past five matches. This is on the back of some poor disposal efficiency (18th in the last five rounds) and lack of connection up forward (17th for scoring shots per inside 50).

Ashton Moir booted four goals last weekend, while Charlie Curnow showed a return to form with three. Patrick Cripps led the way with 29 disposals and has had 25+ in his past three. Adam Cerra has had 25+ in two of his past three.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
6-12	4-14	5-8	2-3

Carlton Blues Team News

Francis Evans will miss with concussion. Harry McKay is edging closer to a return from a knee injury. Jack Silvagni, Mitch McGovern and Sam Walsh remain on the sidelines.

Carlton Blues Team List

B: L.Cowan, J.Weitering, N.Haynes

HB: S.Docherty, H.O’Farrell, O.Hollands

C: B.Acres, P.Cripps (c), M.Carroll

HF: L.Fogarty, C.Curnow, C.Durdin

F: W.White, H.McKay, A.Moir

R: T.De Koning, G.Hewett, A.Cerra

I/C: A.Saad, Z.Williams, C.Lord, M.Pittonet, J.Motlop

EMG: J.Binns, J.Boyd, H.O’Keeffe

In: B.Acres, H.McKay

Out: F.Evans (Injured), F.Young (Injured)

Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues AFL 2025 Round 20 FAQ’s

How to watch Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues AFL 2025 Round 20?

You can watch the Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues AFL 2025 Round 20 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues AFL 2025 Round 20?

To buy tickets to the Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues AFL 2025 Round 20 game check the AFL website or the official Hawthorn Hawks site.

Verdict

Hawthorn Hawks v Carlton Blues

Hawthorn to win between 1-39 points. Newcombe and Cripps in player disposals for 25+

Hawthorn 1-39

Margin 39 point bands

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Jai Newcombe

Disposals 25+

$2.26 - 1 Unit

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Patrick Cripps

Disposals 25+

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