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Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows Round 14 AFL Tips - Too close to call a side

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Thu 12 Jun 2025 17:41

Ryan Tucker 12 Jun 2025

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows expert predictions for Friday’s Round 14 AFL game
The game will be played at UTAS Stadium, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEST)
Round 14 is a tough matchup with Adelaide predicted to win by small margin.
Hawthorn recently broke a losing streak and aims to exploit Adelaide's vulnerabilities.
Both teams have scored 66+ points consistently in recent head-to-heads.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows Round 14 AFL Tips

Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows, Round 14 2025 - Expert Prediction

Is this the toughest game of the round to pick? Yes. Are Adelaide pretenders? Maybe. Are Hawthorn out of their form slump? Looks like it.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows, Round 14 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Hawthorn Hawks Team News
Hawthorn Hawks Team List
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Adelaide Crows Team News
Adelaide Crows Team List
Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2025 Round 14 FAQ’s

So many questions to be answered in this matchup. The predictive modelling has Adelaide winning by 11 points. The H2H at UTAS is 1-1 so even footing there but Hawthorn are 5-3 overall since 2019.

The Hawks broke a 3 game losing streak in style last weekend against the Dogs while the Crows pulled off their best win over the season against the Lions. Adelaide though have only 2 of their 9 wins against Top 8 opponents and the Hawks pummeled them both times they met last season.

Adelaide have a better attacking rating this season but Hawthorn have a better defensive rating and they have roughly played the same level of opponents. Adelaide kick more, Hawthorn handball more and are the more efficient team at moving the footy. Adelaide will likely win the clearance battle but the Hawks take marks Inside 50.

Where will this game be won??? I can’t pick it so I have found value elsewhere. Both teams to score 66+ points is a lock and you are getting the same value as a line pick. Mabior Chol roared back to life last week with 4 goals after a couple games out of the scoring. Take him for 2+. Likewise Darcy Fogarty who has scored multiple goals in 9 games this season. Jai Newcombe 25+ touches.

Both teams have scored 66+ points in 6 straight head to head matchups.
Mabior Chol has scored 2+ goals in 8 of 12 games this year and kicked 4 last weekend.
Darcy Fogarty is averaging 2.3 goals per game at 78% accuracy. He has scored multiple goals in 9 of 12 games this season.
Jai Newcombe leads the Hawks in average disposals at 24.4 per game.

Head to Head

Hawthorn own a 5-3 record in the head to head against Adelaide since the start of the 2019 season. They won both matchups last year by considerable margins. The ledger is 1-1 in the period for games played at UTAS Stadium.

5 of 8 games and both matchups last year went Over the Game Total and 5 of the last 6 have gone Over the 152.5 Total set for this game.

The Winning Margin has been between 1-39 in all but the most recent matchup though 4 of the preceding 7 games have had 20+ margins.

Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	3-2	1-4

The Hawks shrugged off a three game losing streak to beat the Bulldogs last weekend in good fashion 81-59 at Marvel Stadium. It was their 4th straight win against the Dogs and helped them to regain confidence after some poor performances against the Lions and Pies.

The standout once again was Jai Newcombe with 27 disposals including 10 clearances and a goal. Lloyd Meek also did well in controlling the ruck against a top opponent with Hawthorn winning hitouts 51-36. They had 58 Inside 50’s but more importantly restricted the Bulldogs to just 43 forward entries making it difficult for them to capitalise on chances.

The Hawks are the top ranked team in Disposal Efficiency as well as Marks Inside 50 but they are getting belted around the stoppages ranked 17th in Stoppage Clearances.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
8-5	5-8	6-4	2-1

Hawthorn Hawks Team News

James Sicily will miss another game with an ongoing hip/ab injury. Jack Scrimshaw, Nick Watson and James Worpel are all in line to make a return should they pass fitness tests.

Hawthorn Hawks Team List

B: J.Battle, T.Barrass, K.Amon

HB: J.Impey, J.Weddle, M.D’Ambrosio

C: C.Macdonald, H.Hustwaite, H.Morrison

HF: B.Hardwick, D.Moore - C, S.Butler

F: M.Ramsden, M.Chol, J.Ginnivan

FOLL: L.Meek, J.Newcombe, J.Ward

I/C: S.Mitchell, C.Nash, J.Gunston, N.Watson, C.Jiath

EMG: C.Mackenzie, J.Serong, W.McCabe

In: - H.Hustwaite, N.Watson

Out: - J.Worpel (Injured), F.Maginness (Omitted)

Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-1	3-2	1-4

The Crows had arguably their best win of the season last weekend, beating the Brisbane Lions 68-63 in Adelaide. It was only the 2nd win out of the 9 that Adelaide have that have come against a team currently in the top 8.

There is no doubting though that they deserved the win, coming from behind to kick 5 unanswered goals in the final term to steal victory. Jordan Dawson took a huge mark and kicked a goal to help secure the win which also pushed him further up the 2025 Brownlow Odds Rankings.

Adelaide rank 1st in Intercept Marks, Points from Turnovers and Accuracy in front of Goals white they are 2nd in Contested Possessions and Hitouts Win %.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
8-5	4-9	4-4	5-0

Adelaide Crows Team News

Nick Murray is back on deck following a long lay off with a knee injury, it is unclear at this stage if he will return through SANFL or directly into the AFL. James Peatling will miss 2 weeks with suspension.

Oscar Ryan and Harry Schoenberg are at least 2 weeks away.

Adelaide Crows Team List

B: J.Worrell, J.Butts, W.Milera

HB: M.Michalanney, M.Keane, R.Laird

C: I.Cumming, J.Dawson - C, D.Curtin

HF: B.Keays, R.Thilthorpe, L.Murphy

F: A.Neal-Bullen, T.Walker, D.Fogarty

FOLL: R.O’Brien, I.Rankine, S.Berry

I/C: B.Smith, J.Rachele, J.Soligo, M.Hinge, L.Pedlar

EMG: C.Burgess, S.Draper, H.Bond

In: - L.Murphy

Out: - J.Peatling (Suspension)

Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2025 Round 14 FAQ’s

How to watch Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2025 Round 14?

You can watch the Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2025 Round 14 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2025 Round 14?

To buy tickets to the Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2025 Round 14 game check the AFL website or the official Hawthorn Hawks site.

Verdict

Hawthorn Hawks v Adelaide Crows

Both teams to score 66+ points is a lock and you are getting the same value as a line pick. Mabior Chol roared back to life last week with 4 goals after a couple games out of the scoring. Take him for 2+. Likewise Darcy Fogarty who has scored multiple goals in 9 games this season. Jai Newcombe 25+ touches.

66+ Pts

Both Teams to Score

$1.90 - 2 Units

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Mabior Chol 2+

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Darcy Fogarty 2+

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