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Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats AFL Tips - Cameron has field day against the Bombers

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Thu 12 Jun 2025 17:39

Jeremy Darke 12 Jun 2025

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Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 14 AFL game
The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 4:15 PM (AEST)
Geelong Cats have dominated the head-to-head against Essendon, winning 22 out of 26 recent encounters.
Essendon's defense is hindered by injuries, making a big victory for Geelong likely in this match.

Jez's Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats AFL Tips

Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats, Round 14 2025 - Expert Prediction

You do not need to look past the head-to-head history between the Bombers and Cats to know that this match will end with a 40+ margin in Geelong’s favour.

Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats, Round 14 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Essendon Bombers Team News
Essendon Bombers Team List
Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Geelong Cats Team News
Geelong Cats Team List
Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 14 FAQ’s

The Cats have won 22 of the last 26 matches against the Bombers with Essendon being on the end of a 40+ shilacking from Geelong in 15 of those matches. To add fuel to the fire, Essendon have lost 50% of their games by a 40+ margin in 2025 and Geelong’s last 2 matches against bottom 10 teams ended in a 40+ victory.

You see where this is going.

The backline of the Bombers is in absolute tatters with their injury list longer than my 3-year-old's christmas wish list. In the dry, Geelong have been attacking with intention putting up Twenty20 scores against their opponents and another is on the cards this week.

Jeremy Cameron leads the Coleman race with 38 goals, kicking 18 goals in the three matches before the bad weather slowed him down against the Suns. Cameron ladders is certainly in play here and I’ll be starting at 3 goals for the veteran and working my way up from there.

The Cats have won 5 of their last 6 matches by a 40+ margin against the Bombers.
Geelong are ranked 3rd in PointsFromTurnover vs Essendon's defence ranked 17th
Geelong averaged 114 points per game in their 4 matches prior to their rain-affected match against the Suns last week.
Jeremy Cameron had 5+6+7 goals in his three matches prior to the Cats game against the Suns.

Head to Head

Geelong's 105-60 victory in Round 17, 2024 was their seventh straight against Essendon and their thirteenth victory in their last 15 meetings, dating back to 2012.

5 of the last 6 victories to the Cats have been by a 40+ margin.

The last 6 matches between the Bombers and Cats have gone over the game total.

Essendon Bombers Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	3-2	0-5

The Bombers have had some positive results, but just as last season, they perform well in the softer parts of their schedule but are 0-4 against current top eight teams., while being 6-2 against the bottom 10.

An 8-point loss to Carlton last week which followed an 18-point loss to Brisbane is the form that the Bombers come into this match against one of their most difficult opponents over the last 20 years.

Essendon have serious problems in the reality of the season which will eventually find them out, ranked 16th in turnovers, 17th in opposition intercept marks and 17th in opposition points from their mistakes. They are stats that are going to hinder the Bombers from returning to the Finals.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
5-7	3-9	6-3	0-3

Essendon Bombers Team News

Sam Durham has received a two-match ban for his hit on Adam Cerra. Mason Redman has also been ruled out for three weeks with a calf injury.

The Bombers injury list is as long as any with their backline in complete tatters heading into the match against Geelong.

Essendon Bombers Team List

B: A.McGrath, J.Laverde, A.Roberts

HB: Z.Johnson, J.Prior, A.Clarke

C: X.Duursma, Z.Merrett - C, L.Lual

HF: A.Perkins, N.Caddy, N.Martin

F: A.May, P.Wright, I.Kako

FOLL: T.Goldstein, J.Caldwell, D.Parish

I/C: J.Gresham, W.Setterfield, M.Guelfi, A.Day-Wicks, L.Blakiston

EMG: B.Hobbs, D.Shiel, V.Visentini

In: - A.May, L.Blakiston

Out: - B.Hobbs (Omitted), S.Durham (Suspension)

Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-1	3-2	3-2

The Cats are looking like true contenders with the addition of Bailey Smith taking them to another level in 2025. Four wins on the trot and 8 from their last 10 matches has them fourth on the ladder as they continue to do the business against top 8 teams with a 5-2 record against teams in the finals bracket.

Their latest was a tough haul in tricky conditions against the Gold Coast, but the experience of the Geelong squad did what was needed and play the percentage balls while completely shutting down the Suns attack to get a 61-37 victory.

When needed, the Cats backline has done its job, however, it is their attack and forward ball movement that has been the difference, kicking an average of 114 points in the four games prior to the monsoon weather against the Gold Coast.

Smith has made his mark on his new club with an average of 31.5 disposals per game and has clearly taken the pressure off the likes of Patrick Dangerfield to control all of the movement through the middle and has been a vital link.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
9-4	7-6	6-4	3-0

Geelong Cats Team News

Bailey Smith had some concerns against the Suns but is likely to play, but will be a test, along with Shannon Neale (ankle). Jack Bowes is also a chance but a longer shot than his teammates.

Geelong Cats Team List

B: J.Henry, S.De Koning, C.O’Sullivan

HB: L.Humphries, T.Stewart, Z.Guthrie

C: M.Blicavs, M.Holmes, O.Dempsey

HF: S.Mannagh, B.Close, G.Miers

F: T.Stengle, J.Cameron, P.Dangerfield - C

FOLL: R.Stanley, B.Smith, T.Atkins

I/C: J.Martin, M.O’Connor, M.Duncan, O.Mullin, S.Neale

EMG: J.Bews, J.Bowes, O.Henry

In: - B.Smith

Out: - T.Clohesy (Omitted)

Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 14 FAQ’s

How to watch Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 14?

You can watch the Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 14 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 14?

To buy tickets to the Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 14 game check the AFL website or the official Essendon Bombers site.

Verdict

Essendon Bombers v Geelong Cats

Jeremy Cameron will be at the driving range again and playing his ladders is the way to go. Geelong will kick 100+ on their way to a 40+ victory.

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40+ Winning Margin

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