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St Kilda Saints vs Western Bulldogs Round 14 AFL Tips - Saints attack just not good enough

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Wed 11 Jun 2025 10:23

Ryan Tucker 11 Jun 2025

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St Kilda Saints vs Western Bulldogs expert predictions for Thursday’s Round 14 AFL game
The game will be played at Marvel Stadium, with the bounce at 7:30 PM (AEST)
Western Bulldogs expected to beat St Kilda Saints, covering a large line.
Western Bulldogs dominated the previous encounter, controlling the midfield.
Bet on Western Bulldogs to cover; game expected to exceed total points.

St Kilda Saints vs Western Bulldogs Round 14 AFL Tips

St Kilda Saints vs Western Bulldogs, Round 14 2025 - Expert Prediction

The Dogs will win on Thursday night and should not have a problem covering the large line despite the season trends for home Underdogs.

St Kilda Saints vs Western Bulldogs, Round 14 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
St Kilda Saints Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
St Kilda Saints Team News
St Kilda Saints Team List
Western Bulldogs Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Western Bulldogs Team News
Western Bulldogs Team List
St Kilda Saints vs Western Bulldogs AFL 2025 Round 14 FAQ’s

In 2025 so far, home underdogs are covering at a 51.1% rate, exceeded only by away Underdogs just .4% more. The problem with that trend in this game though is that St Kilda are yet to cover this season in a loss. Granted, it is the second highest line they have been afforded but they were absolutely belted by the Dogs in Round 6 and not much has changed structurally.

The Over Game Total is also underperforming this season with a mere 40% of games going Over their totals, historically that number sits at or around 50% come seasons end so there is ground to make up.

In the earlier matchup between these teams the Western Bulldogs dominated with 69-31 Inside 50’s, 81.7% Disposal Efficiency, primarily kicking the footy and completely controlled the clearance game winning 44-23, the biggest difference coming in the middle (20-6 Centre Clearances).

The matchups are just too overwhelming for St Kilda with the Western Bulldogs again expected to control the middle, create scoring opportunities and reduce the number of Saints forward entries.

Take Western Bulldogs to cover, Game Total to go Over and if Sam Darcy suits up lock him in for a double straight away. Adam Treloar didn’t play in the matchup in Round 6 but had 31 against the Saints last year. Book him for 25+

St Kilda are yet to cover as a losing team this season.
Two straight games between these two have gone Over the Game Total, the over is underrepresented so far this season.
Sam Darcy has kicked multiple goals in 4 of the 5 games he has played this season when not injured.
Adam Treloar has had 20 and 27 disposals in his two games this season, he had 31 in the matchup against St Kilda last year.

Head to Head

The Bulldogs have a 4-3 advantage in the regular season head to head since 2019 which includes the match up earlier this year where they trounced St Kilda 127-56.

St Kilda won the only finals game played between these clubs in that timeframe back in 2020.

The Game Total has gone Over in 2 straight games and 4 of the last 7 while the winning margin has been 40+ points in 3 straight and 4 of the last 7.

St Kilda Saints Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	2-3	1-4

St Kilda are coming off a bye and despite having just 5 wins to their name so far this season are still within reach of the top 8, only 2 wins behind Fremantle and GWS.

Last start they traveled to Darwin to take on the Dees and left with a 91-63 victory. The win again showed that if the Saints can be effective on the scoreboard then they are capable of beating any team. All games this season when they have scored 85+ points they have won, every game below that, they have lost.

The Saints rank well for Rebound 50’s, 4th in the league and are good at restricting their opponents from getting Clearances from stoppages. Interestingly they are 18th in Hitouts Win % which leaves you wondering what their midfield would be like if they were getting the ball on the run.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
5-7	7-5	3-4	2-3

St Kilda Saints Team News

Jack Macrae is expected to return on Thursday night. Liam Stocker has also been given the all clear to return. Mattaes Phillipou was on track to start playing again after the bye but has been given further time to recover from a calf injury. Paddy Dow will look to return next week.

St Kilda Saints Team List

Team list yet to be released.

Western Bulldogs Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	2-3	2-3

The Bulldogs dropped their second consecutive game last weekend after going 4 of 5 in the games prior. The 81-59 loss to Hawthorn was their biggest loss of the season as well as their lowest total by a good margin.

It was the fourth straight loss for the Western Bulldogs against Hawthorn with the Doggies scrambling to matchup around the ground. Rory Lobb was moved up top to give another tall target but their defence suffered without the big man’s reach.

With such a strong midfield the Bulldogs are the top ranked team in Centre Clearances this year even with Tim English being beaten soundly by opposition rucks. They are 3rd in Inside 50’s, allow the fewest forward entries to opponents and are the best team at scoring from Stoppages.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
6-6	7-5	3-6	3-0

Western Bulldogs Team News

Sam Darcy could return this weekend after a long lay off with a knee injury sustained in the Easter clash against St Kilda. James Harmes has concussion issues and has been ruled out. Jason Johannisen is sick and is also out while Riley Garcia and Anthony Scott will need to prove their fitness to be up for selection.

Western Bulldogs Team List

Team list yet to be released.

St Kilda Saints vs Western Bulldogs AFL 2025 Round 14 FAQ’s

How to watch St Kilda Saints vs Western Bulldogs AFL 2025 Round 14?

You can watch the St Kilda Saints vs Western Bulldogs AFL 2025 Round 14 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to St Kilda Saints vs Western Bulldogs AFL 2025 Round 14?

To buy tickets to the St Kilda Saints vs Western Bulldogs AFL 2025 Round 14 game check the AFL website or the official St Kilda Saints site.

Verdict

St Kilda Saints v Western Bulldogs

Bulldogs -20.5

Line

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Over 167.5

Game Total

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Sam Darcy 2+

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