AFL Mid-Season Ladder Predictions 2026: Biggest Risers and Fallers
The AFL 2026 season is hitting its stride with dramatic ladder changes at the midpoint. Sydney Swans now lead, proving themselves the competition benchmark. Fremantle has exceeded expectations, while Melbourne has made a remarkable rise from 17th to 9th, signalling a successful turnaround. Gold Coast, meanwhile, has not lived up to hype, and Essendon is performing below even modest expectations. The analysis concludes that while standout improvers and disappointments exist, some preseason favourites like Hawthorn and Geelong remain steady near the top.
- Jesse from True Footy's predicts the final ladder positions
- Sydney Swans are now flag favourites, climbing to 1st place.
- Melbourne makes biggest jump: 17th to 9th thanks to culture & coaching.
- Fremantle surges to 2nd; Gold Coast slips, Essendon last.
Jesse From True Footy's AFL Ladder Predictions
AFL Mid-Season Ladder Predictions 2026: How the Final Ladder Will Finish
Twelve rounds into the AFL season, enough evidence has accumulated to separate reality from preseason optimism.
Back in February, every club had a dream. Some have exceeded expectations. Others have fallen dramatically short.
Using Jesse's latest True Footy ladder prediction, here's how the AFL ladder is projected to finish from here, and how each club compares to where they were tipped before Round 1.
AFL Mid-Season Ladder Predictions 2026
| Team | Preseason Prediction | Mid-Season Prediction | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 4th | 1st | ▲ +3 |
| Fremantle | 6th | 2nd | ▲ +4 |
| Hawthorn | 1st | 3rd | ▼ -2 |
| Geelong | 2nd | 4th | ▼ -2 |
| Brisbane Lions | 5th | 5th | — |
| GWS Giants | 9th | 6th | ▲ +3 |
| Adelaide Crows | 7th | 7th | — |
| Gold Coast Suns | 3rd | 8th | ▼ -5 |
| Melbourne Demons | 17th | 9th | ▲ +8 |
| Western Bulldogs | 8th | 10th | ▼ -2 |
| St Kilda | 11th | 11th | — |
| North Melbourne | 14th | 12th | ▲ +2 |
| Collingwood | 10th | 13th | ▼ -3 |
| Carlton | 13th | 14th | ▼ -1 |
| Port Adelaide | 12th | 15th | ▼ -3 |
| West Coast Eagles | 18th | 16th | ▲ +2 |
| Richmond | 16th | 17th | ▼ -1 |
| Essendon | 15th | 18th | ▼ -3 |
Melbourne Have Gone From Wooden Spoon Contenders to Finals Smokies
Preseason: 17th → Mid-Season: 9th (+8)
This is easily the biggest story.
Nobody had Melbourne here. New coach. New energy. Better ball movement. Better culture. They're not a contender, but they're no longer a bottom-four side either.
Fremantle Have Become Genuine Premiership Contenders
Preseason: 6th → Mid-Season: 2nd (+4)
The biggest positive surprise among the contenders.
The Gabba win changed the conversation. Josh Treacy has become elite, Luke Jackson is dominating, and the Dockers look more complete than at any point in the Justin Longmuir era.
Gold Coast Have Failed to Meet Expectations
Preseason: 3rd → Mid-Season: 8th (-5)
This is one the boys were pretty strong on.
The Suns aren't bad.
But they haven't become what many expected. A lot of people had them pushing top four. Instead, they're fighting just to stay in the eight.
Essendon Look Headed for Rock Bottom
Preseason: 15th → Mid-Season: 18th (-3)
The ladder position doesn't fully capture the disappointment.
Nobody expected finals, but nobody expected the Bombers to be staring at the wooden spoon either.
Sydney Have Become the AFL's Benchmark
Preseason: 4th → Mid-Season: 1st (+3)
The Swans have gone from contender to clear premiership favourite.
They're destroying weaker teams, their percentage is enormous, and their best football looks better than anyone else's.
Why Hawthorn and Geelong Haven't Really Moved
This is a nice balancing section.
Both clubs were tipped near the top.
Both clubs remain near the top.
Neither has dramatically exceeded or underperformed expectations.
Sometimes being proven right is the story.
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