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Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL Round 21 Tips - Crows on top of the perch

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Thu 31 Jul 2025 15:35

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Jeremy Darke 31 Jul 2025

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Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks expert predictions for Friday’s Round 21 AFL game
The game will be played at Adelaide Oval, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEST)
Expect a low-scoring, strategic match with Jordan Dawson's influence.
Adelaide Crows aim to secure the minor premiership.

Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL Round 21 Tips

Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks, Round 21 2025 - Expert Prediction

The Crows will keep the pressure on the Pies for the minor premiership with a tight win against the Hawks on Friday night.

Head to Head
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Adelaide Crows Team News
Adelaide Crows Team List
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Hawthorn Hawks Team News
Hawthorn Hawks Team List
Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 21 FAQ’s

This match has major implications for both sides and their position on the ladder heading into the final rounds of the season. At one end Hawthorn are pushing for a top four spot however, with one loss they put themselves in jeopardy of missing the eight, while the Crows are fighting for a chance to snatch the minor premiership and a home match in the first week of the finals.

The Hawks have won the last 3 against the Crows, however, Adelaide have been arguably the most dominant side in the competition of the last 5-6 weeks. With all of the flair that both of these teams have one could expect a high-scoring match, however, this one is likely to go down to the wire and it will be the team that holds firm at the back and transitions best that will win this contest.

I am predicting a low-scoring match that will see both lock down inside their 50 before trying to move the ball swiftly on the counter. The Under 164.5 will be in play here with both teams trending to unders over the last 2 months.

Big games see key men rise and Adelaide captain Jordan Dawson will need to be influential in the middle to combat the youth of the Hawks, expect the 28-year-old to win the ball around the fine ruck work of Reilly O’Brien and shift the momentum into the Crows favour.

Adelaide have won their last 5 matches.
7 of the last 9 Hawthorn games have gone under the game total.
5 of the last 8 Adelaide games have gone under the game total.
Jordan Dawson is averaging 23.7 disposals per match in 2025.

Head to Head

Hawthorn have won the last 3 matches against the Crows including an absolute scrap fight in Launceston with the temperature feeling like 3.6 degrees in a wet match with dew and frost on the grass. The Crows dominated but just like the Hawks failed to convert their chances with Hawthorn coming from behind to win 47-44.

Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
5-0	4-1	3-2

If you have missed it, my dark-horse for the premiership has been the Crows and for a while now, before the rest of the AFL community has started jumping on board.

They have won their last 5 matches dominating their opponents at both ends of the park. Their latest victory was over cross-town rivals Port Adelaide where once the rain settled the Crows kicked on to win by 98 points.

The strength of Adelaide is their depth in their forward line with so many targets up front. Even kicking 135 points against the Power, no single player kicked more than 3 goals with Riley Thilthorpe, Taylor Walker and Ben Keays all hitting that mark while Jake Soligo and Sam Berry kicked 2.

The Crows also dominate hitouts with Reilly O’Brien leading the charge in the middle with the Crows boasting the best hitout win percentage and more importantly ranking top in opponent points from stoppages.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
13-6	7-12	6-5	8-0

Adelaide Crows Team News

Max Michalanney suffered a hamstring strain in the Crows Showdown 58 victory and will likely miss the rest of the home-and-away season.

Broadie Smith and James Boralse are his likely replacement.

Adelaide Crows Team List

B: J.Worrell, N.Murray, B.Smith

H: W.Milera, M.Keane, I.Cumming

C: B.Cook J.Dawson, D.Curtin,

HF: B.Keays, R.Thilthorpe, Z.Taylor

F: I.Rankine, D.Fogarty, T.Walker

R: R.O’Brien, J.Peatling, J.Soligo

I/C: C.Jones, A.Neal-Bullen, S.Berry, M.Hinge, H.Bond

EMG: L.Nankervis, L.Pedlar, C.Burgess

IN: B.Smith, I.Cumming, H.Bond

OUT: R.Laird (Managed), M.Michalanney (Injured), L.Pedlar (Omitted)

Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-1	3-2	2-3

Hawthorn are coming back strongly to finish the season, winning 6 of their last 7 matches with their only blemish against Fremantle in Perth which can be forgiven.

The Hawks kicked 13.7 in their 24-point victory over Carlton last Thursday night cruising to a 29-point lead after the first term, before pushing it to 40 points not long after. Hawthorn then went on cruise control for the rest of the match against a hapless Blues.

With all the flash that the Hawks have, it is their pressure in defence that has revived them this season and will also need to lead them through this tough patch of the season where they plate the top three teams in the final four rounds.

The Hawks have conceded the third-least number of points of any team in the competition, allowing their opponents to score an average of only 73.6 points per game. They make their opponents work for set shots inside 50 ranked third in marks in the area (9.05/G).

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
11-8	7-12	10-5	3-1

Hawthorn Hawks Team News

Mabior Chol has suffered some groin soreness and could miss the trip to Adelaide. Mitch Lewis could slot straight in up front to replace Chol.

Hawthorn Hawks Team List

B: J.Battle, T.Barrass, B.Hardwick

HB: J.Impey, J.Sicily (c), J.Scrimshaw

C : H.Morrison, J.Ward, K.Amon

HF: J.Gunston, M.Chol, N.Watson

F: J.Ginnivan, M.Lewis, D.Moore

R: L.Meek, J.Newcombe, W.Day

I/C: M.D’Ambrosio, C.Nash, C.Dear, C.Macdonald, J.Worpel

EMG: L.Breust, S.Butler, B.Macdonald

IN: M.Chol

OUT: B.Macdonald (Omitted)

Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 21 FAQ’s

How to watch Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 21?

You can watch the Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 21 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 21?

To buy tickets to the Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 21 game check the AFL website or the official Adelaide Crows site.

Verdict

Adelaide Crows v Hawthorn Hawks

The Crows will win by a 1-39 margin ina game that stays under the total of 164.5. Jordan Dawson will be influential in the middle with 25+ disposals.

Adelaide Crows

1-39 Winning Margin

$2.05 - 3 Units

The GOAT.

Ahead of the Game.

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Under 164.5

Game Total

$1.92 - 2 Units

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The Ultimate Form Guide

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Jordan Dawson

25+ Disposals

$2.55 - 1 Unit

The GOAT.

Ahead of the Game.

Join Australia's newest online bookmaker with code BETSAU and enjoy exciting new ways to bet. The app is among the fastest in the market. What are you prepared to lose today? Set a deposit limit.

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