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Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions AFL Round 21 Tips - Pies to exert dominance over Lions

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Thu 31 Jul 2025 15:40

Ryan Tucker 31 Jul 2025

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Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 21 AFL game
The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 7:35 PM (AEST)
Collingwood Magpies are predicted to win against Brisbane Lions in Round 21.
Game strategy includes increased defensive intensity and focus on Josh Daicos.
Match crucial for both teams’ standings ahead of AFL finals.

Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions AFL Round 21 Tips

Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions, Round 21 2025 - Expert Prediction

This game will not be a repeat of the thrashing earlier this year but the Pies are expected to win.

Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions, Round 21 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Collingwood Magpies Team News
Collingwood Magpies Team List
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Brisbane Lions Team News
Brisbane Lions Team List
Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 21 FAQ’s

Can we still call this a battle for the Minor Premiership? If Collingwood are victorious they effectively extinguish the Lions hopes for top spot and severely hamper their chances for even a top 4 finish. Should the Pies lose they are themselves in danger of freefalling down the standings, so it does hold a lot of weight.

Collingwood won the stoppages last time around and Nick Daicos had a field day before being tagged by Berry in the 3rd. Expect Brisbane to try and minimise the impact of the crafty mid once again but this time earlier in the match while they also try to figure out how to even up the clearance battle.

With all of that going on though, it will allow Collingwood to pick their opportunities and outmaneuver their opponent to go on and win the game.

Take Collingwood to win and cover the line and the Game Total to go Under thanks to an uptick in defensive intensity as finals approach. Josh Daicos will likely see a bit more with Nick under the pump, take him for 30 and why not chance a Jamie Elliot first goalscorer play.

Collingwood have won 4 straight over Brisbane and won by 52 earlier this year.
The Pies are the best rated defensive team this season, Brisbane are 5th in Current defensive ratings.
In the last 5 games when Nick Daicos has been held to a low disposal count, Josh Daicos has been at or near the top of the pops.
Jamie Elliot has kicked a goal in 15 straight games and has converted the first chance on numerous occasions for the Pies.

Head to Head

Collingwood have won 4 straight matches against Brisbane which started with the 2023 Grand Final, they also belted the Lions on their home turf 105-53 earlier this year.

Since 2019 and excluding finals there have been 10 matches played with Brisbane holding a 6-4 advantage. The Under has hit in 3 straight regular season games but it is an even 5-5 across the 10 game span. On only 3 out of 10 occasions has the score been a 40+ point blowout, two of those were Collingwood victories.

Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	1-4	1-4

Collingwood took another victory last weekend, beating the Richmond Tigers 93-57 to inch a step closer to another minor premiership. With 4 games remaining they are 4 points clear of Adelaide and 6 points clear of the Lions.

Given the tightness of the league and the run home that Collingwood have they will need to keep on winning to not only maintain top spot but even a top 4 position.

The Magpies are currently the 4th rated attack in the AFL with a +7.5 rating but it is a big jump up to the top 3 who are all 15+. Their defence though is top 2 in the league with a +10.2 rating but worth noting is that it has fallen off from a season number of +14.2.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
10-9	7-12	9-3	6-1

Collingwood Magpies Team News

A lot of movement in the Magpies dressing rooms with Scott Pendlebury expected to lace up after being managed last weekend. Lachie Sullivan’s season ended with a PCL injury in the win over the Tigers while Jeremy Howe has had his return delayed.

Bobby Hill, Jordan De Goey and Billy Frampton could all be inclusions to the game day squad.

Collingwood Magpies Team List

B: B.Maynard, D.Moore (c), C.Dean

HB: D.Houston, J.Daicos, I.Quaynor

C: S.Sidebottom, N.Daicos, J.Crisp

HF: W.Hoskin-Elliott, T.Membrey, L.Schultz

F: J.Elliott 5 D.McStay 11 P.Lipinski

R: D.Cameron, S.Pendlebury, N.Long

I/CJ.De Goey, H.Perryman, B.Hill, O.Markov, B.Mihocek

EMG: W.Parker, E.Allan, B.Frampton

IN: S.Pendlebury, J.De Goey, B.Hill

OUT: E.Allan (Omitted), T.Mitchell (Omitted), L.Sullivan (Injured)

Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-1	4-1	2-3

Brisbane were upset in a major way by their south east Queensland rivals Gold Coast last weekend, going down 130-64 on the road.

It was just the 2nd loss to the Suns since 2018, covering 14 games in total and also the biggest ever margin of victory for the Suns against Brisbane. The Lions were outplayed in the Ruck which also gave their opponents ascendancy in the midfield which left Brisbane scrambling.

The Lions still rank highly in a number of important metrics including 2nd in Inside 50’s, 3rd in Stoppage Clearances, Intercept Marks and Tackles Inside 50.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
9-10	7-12	11-3	2-2

Brisbane Lions Team News

Conor McKenna injured his hamstring and is looking at up to 4 weeks on the sideline. Kai Lohmann is expected to return around the same time which will force the Lions to think creatively with a replacement.

The two ruck structure didn’t really work last weekend and it will be interesting to see if the Lions commit against a less dominant Ruck opponent or go down another avenue.

Brisbane Lions Team List

B: D.Zorko, D.Gardiner, R.Lester

HB: D.Wilmot, H.Andrews, B.Starcevich

C: J.Fletcher, H.McCluggage, J.Berry

HF: C.Cameron, E.Hipwood, W.Ashcroft

F: C.Rayner, L.Morris, C.Ah Chee

R: D.Fort, J.Dunkley, L.Neale (c)

I/C: L.Ashcroft, S.Marshall, H.Smith, Z.Bailey, B.Reville

EMG: S.Day, J.Tunstill, D.Joyce

IN: H.Smith, B.Reville

OUT: C.McKenna (Injured), O.McInerney (Managed)

Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 21 FAQ’s

How to watch Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 21?

You can watch the Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 21 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 21?

To buy tickets to the Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 21 game check the AFL website or the official Collingwood Magpies site.

Verdict

Collingwood Magpies v Brisbane Lions

Collingwood -8.5

Line

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Under 164.5

Game Total

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