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Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Arnaldi Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Can Djokovic get revenge over Arnaldi in Geneva quarter-finals?

andrew-hendrie
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Last updated: 22 May 2025
Andrew Hendrie 22 May 2025
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  • Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Arnaldi predictions for Thursday's ATP Geneva QF
  • Arnaldi defeated Djokovic in straight sets earlier this month in Madrid
  • Arnaldi has won six of his last eight matches
  • The match is scheduled to start around 2.00am AEST on Friday March 23
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Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic (Photo by Getty Images)


Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Arnaldi Tips, Prediction & Live Stream


Novak Djokovic is just three wins away from his 100th career title - can he make the Geneva Open semi-finals when he comes up against Matteo Arnaldi in the quarter-finals on Thursday?

  • Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Arnaldi Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
  • Head To Head
  • Novak Djokovic Form
  • Matteo Arnaldi Form
  • Live Stream
Djokovic entered Geneva with the intention of getting more matches under his belt ahead of the French Open after going 0-2 on clay before this week. However, this could turn into a triumphant week for the Serbian superstar - if he wins this match, either Cameron Norrie or Alexei Popyrin awaits in the semi-finals, while Taylor Fritz and Karen Khachanov are the top seeds remaining in the upper half of the draw.

But, Djokovic won't be getting ahead of himself, especially with the opponent he finds across the net on Thursday. Arnaldi is one of the best competitors on tour and will obviously be confident having dispatched the 24-time major champion in straight sets earlier this month in Madrid. Arnaldi went on to make the quarter-finals of that tournament and he's back in the last eight in Geneva, so he's experienced a lot of winning lately. Djokovic was a comfortable straight sets winner over Marton Fucsovics in his Geneva opener, but this is a bigger test. Still not convinced with Djokovic, so backing Arnaldi with a +4.5 games start here.

Head To Head


As mentioned, Arnaldi leads 1-0, winning their only previous meeting 63 64 in the second round of Madrid a few weeks ago.

Novak Djokovic Form


Djokovic comes into this showdown with a 13-7 record for the season and arrived in Geneva without a win on clay since taking out Olympic Gold at the Paris Olympics last year.

It's been a difficult start to the season for Djokovic after he injured his hamstring at the Australian Open, resulting in a retirement in the semi-finals.

The former World No. 1 suffered some early exits in Doha and Indian Wells, before regrouping for a run to the Miami Masters final. However, more disappointment followed as he went down in straight sets to teenager Jakub Mensik.

Djokovic couldn't build on that form, suffering straight set defeats to Alejandro Tabilo and Arnaldi in Monte Carlo and Madrid respectively.

However, the 37-year-old managed to register his first win on the dirt in 2025 on Wednesday, easing past Marton Fucsovics 6-2 6-3, not facing a break point in the entire contest.

Matteo Arnaldi Form


Arnaldi has registered a 14-11 record on the season so far as he continues his bid to try and take his game to the next level after settling in the 30-50 area in the rankings over the last couple of years.

The Italian is still searching for that one big breakthrough tournament, with a maiden ATP title still eluding him.

The deepest Arnaldi has gone in a tournament this season was the semi-finals of Delray Beach, but his most impressive performance came in Madrid, where he posted that aforementioned victory over Djokovic to make the quarter-finals, where he was upstaged by Jack Draper.

Arnaldi suffered a disappointing opening round exit in the opening round of his home tournament in Rome to Roberto Bautista Agut, but he's got back to winning ways in Geneva, defeating Hugo Gaston in three sets before a good three-set triumph over the dangerous Fabian Marozsan to make the last eight.

Live Stream


Watch and bet on Novak Djokovic vs Matteo Arnaldi live tennis from Geneva.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Geneva with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Hard to say what version of Djokovic will show up here given his recent form.

Arnaldi knows he has the tools to beat Djokovic after doing so in Madrid and he's been in good form lately - will back the Italian to cover a +4.5 games line.

Best Bet1: Arnaldi +4.5 Games Line $1.73 at betr - 2 Units
Arnaldi +4.5
Games Line
$1.73 - 2 Units
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Novak Djokovic v Matteo Arnaldi