Daniil Medvedev vs Ugo Humbert Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Medvedev to edge tough Rotterdam opener

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Sun 08 Feb 2026 23:35

Andrew Hendrie 08 Feb 2026

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Daniil Medvedev vs Ugo Humbert predictions for Monday's ATP Rotterdam Round 1 match
Medvedev's a former champion in Rotterdam with strong recent form, winning 17 of last 20 matches overall
Humbert's usually a beast indoors, but has poor 0-3 record in Rotterdam
The match is scheduled to start around 12.30am AEDT on Tuesday February 10

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Daniil Medvedev (Photo by Getty Images)

Daniil Medvedev vs Ugo Humbert Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Fourth seed Daniil Medvedev gets his ABN Amro Open title bid underway in Rotterdam on Monday when he squares off against dangerous indoors player Ugo Humbert in the first round.

Daniil Medvedev vs Ugo Humbert Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Medvedev vs Humbert Stats & Trends
Medvedev vs Humbert Head To Head
Daniil Medvedev Form Analysis
Ugo Humbert Form Analysis
Medvedev vs Humbert Live Stream

Medvedev had showcased noticeable improvement towards the latter stages of 2025 and into the start of this season under the guidance of new coach Thomas Johansson. However, the former World No. 1 would have been bitterly disappointed with his Australian Open exit, going down in the fourth round to new nemesis Learner Tien. It will be very interesting to see if that was a minor blip on the Medvedev resurgence trail, or the struggles of the last couple of years begin to surface again. Meanwhile, Humbert is one of the tour's best indoors players, but curiously he's lost in the first round of all three of his previous appearances in Rotterdam.

Also interestingly, Humbert owns a 3-1 record over Medvedev, but the pair haven't met since 2024. With his booming lefty serve, this is clearly a good matchup for Humbert, so I think he can push this Over 22.5 total games. However, the Frenchman's record in Rotterdam can't be ignored, while he was also bundled out of Montpellier last week by veteran Adrian Mannarino, which isn't a a great result. I'm going to back Medvedev to get back on track and register an opening round win.

Medvedev vs Humbert Stats & Trends

Medvedev has won 17 of his last 20 matches
Humbert has lost 11 of his last 15 matches vs top 15 players
Humbert is 0-3 lifetime in Rotterdam
Humbert has seen Over 22.5 games in two of his three Rotterdam matches
Medvedev has won six of his last seven matches in Rotterdam
Medvedev has seen Over 22.5 games in his last three Rotterdam matches
Two of the last three meetings between the pair have seen Over 22.5 games

Medvedev vs Humbert Head To Head

Humbert leads 3-1 and 2-1 on hardcourt. This will be their first meeting indoors.

Year	Tournament	Surface	Winner	Score
2024	Dubai	Hard	Ugo Humbert	7-5 6-3
2023	Beijing	Hard	Daniil Medvedev	6-4 3-6 6-1
2022	ATP Cup	Hard	Ugo Humbert	6-7(5) 7-5 7-6(2)
2020	Hamburg	Clay	Ugo Humbert	6-4 6-3

Daniil Medvedev Form Analysis

2026 Record: 8-1
ATP Rotterdam Record: 11-5
Current Ranking: No. 11
Career-High Ranking: No. 1 (2022)

It was a challenging couple of years for Medvedev, but he's on the cusp of breaking back into the top 10 after a fruitful last few months, which has seen him go 17-3 across his last 20 matches.

Medvedev picked up the title in Almaty and made the quarter-finals at the Paris Masters to close out 2025 before collecting the silverware in Brisbane to launch 2026, dropping just one set along the way.

The 29-year-old looked set for a deep run at the Australian Open, but he was unfortunate to run into a red-hot Learner Tien, who gave him all sorts of problems last year. The teenage star was again in sensational form, crushing Medvedev for the loss of just seven games.

The Russian however was keeping perspective afterwards, saying one match doesn't change the gains he's made over the last few months.

“I think I should focus more in general. If we take the past eight tournaments, starting from US Open, I played great,” Medvedev said in Melbourne. “I beat a lot of players. I played great against some top players. In general, I was going far in the results.

“So I should try not to focus on this exact match, which was not good, because he outplayed me, so that's not a good feeling. But I should focus more on the general picture and just continue working the way I did for the last tournaments. If I manage to play good, beat all the players I have beaten in all these tournaments, I can get to where I want. Of course, it's unfortunate to finish a Grand Slam like this when I was feeling well and confident, but it is what it is.”

Medvedev will now attempt to get back to winning ways in Rotterdam, where he owns a solid 11-5 record, winning the title in 2023 with a victory over Jannik Sinner in the final.

Ugo Humbert Form Analysis

2026 Record: 4-3
ATP Rotterdam Record: 0-3
Current Ranking: No. 38
Career-High Ranking: No. 13

Humbert also endured a disappointing 2025 season and it's been a mixed back to launch 2026, with the Frenchman trying to get back inside the world's top 30 and beyond.

The 27-year-old suffered an opening round exit in Brisbane to Cameron Norrie, but bounced back strongly with a run to the final in Adelaide the following week, defeating top seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina before going down in three sets to Tomas Machac.

It was a tough draw at the Australian Open for Humbert as he came up against Ben Shelton in the first round, going down in straight sets.

Humbert was back in action last week in Montpellier, but it wasn't the tournament he would have hoped for, falling in the second round to veteran countryman Adrian Mannarino in three sets.

Medvedev vs Humbert Live Stream

Watch and bet on Daniil Medvedev vs Ugo Humbert live tennis from Rotterdam.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Rotterdam with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Daniil Medvedev v Ugo Humbert

This is shaping as a quality first round encounter, but Medvedev is back in some good form and a former champion in Rotterdam - he's tipped to edge it.